It’s pretty wild that in a season with so many teams exceeding expectations that we end up with the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers duking it out in the Fall Classic. Surprise team performances are fueled by players overshooting their spring ranking, which gets carried over to our fantasy teams. Here is a look at the season that was, with an eye towards 2025.
Scoring was down
| Year | Runs per Game |
| 2015 | 4.25 |
| 2022 | 4.28 |
| 2024 | 4.39 |
| 2018 | 4.45 |
| 2016 | 4.48 |
| 2021 | 4.53 |
| 2023 | 4.62 |
| 2020 | 4.65 |
| 2017 | 4.65 |
| 2019 | 4.83 |
In 2022, scoring was at its lowest since 2015. In response, MLB instituted rules designed to benefit offense, such as legislating the shift, the pitch clock, bigger bases and limiting the number of disengagements from the pitching rubber. The changes had the desired effect as scoring increased, but not to the level of 2019 and the happy, fun ball.
There were not any major changes to the rules for the 2024 campaign yet scoring nosedived. My research suggests that the reason was the baseball did not travel as far as previous seasons. The average fly ball distance dropped a few feet. As a result, home runs declined, as did the number of fly ball base hits.
Specifically, the BABIP (batting average on balls in play) for balls lofted into the outfield decreased. Ground ball BABIP stayed the same as last season. It should be noted that the ground ball BABIP in 2023 reflected shift legislation and carried over into 2024. Shifting affected outfield defense, but not nearly to the extent of infield.
There are a couple of plausible explanations why fly ball BABIP waned. Once clubs became aware of the reduced fly ball distance, outfielders could have played shallower, capturing more weakly hit fly balls while still being able to track down balls hit over their head. Another reason is the rules implemented in 2023 favored better athletes, so perhaps teams are deploying better defenders.
Looking to 2025, the key will be how the ball plays. The reduced travel wasn’t necessarily something physical about the ball. Temperature and humidity influence how the ball flies into the outfield.
The fantasy baseball repercussion is there is a subset of batters, and especially pitchers that are affected by the fate of fly balls. Being a fly ball pitcher was more beneficial last season since they surrendered fewer homers, while also yielding fewer fly ball hits.
There has always been a (misplaced) stigma concerning fly ball pitchers being too risky. The ability to induce grounders is a trait, not a skill. The advantage of ground balls is they can generate double plays and never leave the yard, but ground ball BABIP is higher than fly ball BABIP, so more grounders result in hits. Even so, since ground ball pitchers give up fewer homers, they’re generally considered safer.
The caveat is last season, fly ball pitchers were less risky since they gave up fewer homers. This is on top of benefiting even more from a lower overall BABIP. The fantasy dilemma will be evaluating fly ball pitchers. If power returns, they’ll be hurt the most. We may be able to glean some information from the Grapefruit League and Cactus League, but that won’t be until mid to late March.
The State of Pitching
There is a perception that relievers are accounting for more innings than ever. If the time frame is the 2020’s, then yes, bullpens handle a higher percentage of the workload than in previous decades. However, in 2024, the split slightly shifted towards starters.
| Year | SP IP% |
| 2005 | 67.4% |
| 2006 | 65.4% |
| 2007 | 64.8% |
| 2008 | 65.0% |
| 2009 | 65.3% |
| 2010 | 67.1% |
| 2011 | 67.3% |
| 2012 | 66.0% |
| 2013 | 65.7% |
| 2014 | 66.5% |
| 2015 | 65.0% |
| 2016 | 63.3% |
| 2017 | 61.9% |
| 2018 | 59.9% |
| 2019 | 57.9% |
| 2020 | 55.5% |
| 2021 | 57.3% |
| 2022 | 58.7% |
| 2023 | 58.0% |
| 2024 | 58.8% |
The shortened 2020 season is omitted. There was a slow, but steady decline in starter innings until 2019. Since then, the balance has been essentially the same, with variance. The key is the landscape isn’t further tilting to relievers; the distribution has been the same for a few years.
Let’s look at some other related data.
| Year | %QS | % SP Wins |
| 2005 | 50.2% | 71.6% |
| 2006 | 46.9% | 70.9% |
| 2007 | 47.6% | 69.2% |
| 2008 | 48.2% | 69.3% |
| 2009 | 48.3% | 70.2% |
| 2010 | 53.0% | 71.4% |
| 2011 | 53.4% | 70.6% |
| 2012 | 51.1% | 71.5% |
| 2013 | 52.5% | 68.2% |
| 2014 | 53.9% | 70.2% |
| 2015 | 50.0% | 68.9% |
| 2016 | 46.5% | 67.1% |
| 2017 | 43.6% | 67.5% |
| 2018 | 41.1% | 62.3% |
| 2019 | 37.0% | 59.7% |
| 2021 | 32.6% | 55.4% |
| 2022 | 36.5% | 59.4% |
| 2023 | 34.6% | 57.7% |
| 2024 | 36.2% | 58.6% |
Many suspect pitchers aren’t going as deep into games. To achieve a quality start, the hurler must deliver at least six frames. The percentage of quality starts has clearly declined, but like the percentage of inning tossed by starts, the %QS has leveled off, and in fact was its highest since 2019.
The other assumed repercussion of MLB pitching management is that starting pitchers are recording fewer wins. Like with innings and quality starts, the trend was downward but levelled off.
The fantasy take is that strategies don’t suddenly need to be adjusted to handle the new pitching environment; it’s been this way for a few years. That said, those struggling with fantasy pitching may need to adjust, though it should have been done a few years ago. In short, while it may be necessary to rethink assembling a fantasy staff, don’t assume even more workload will be going to relievers.
Similarly, if changing rules or scoring, don’t do so expecting a further innings paradigm. If your innings pitched maximum is reasonable now, it should stay that way. If wins as a category is working now, don’t add quality starts or some such, expecting wins to lessen among starters.
What About Saves?
This is a separate issue than workload share. On the surface, many teams are distributing saves among more relievers. Does the data agree?
| Year | 41-plus | 36 to 40 | 31 to 35 | 26 to 30 | 21 to 25 | 16 to 20 | 11 to 15 | 6 to 10 | 1 to 5 | >0 |
| 2024 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 175 | 223 |
| 2023 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 165 | 214 |
| 2022 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 25 | 165 | 222 |
| 2021 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 143 | 198 |
| 2019 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 153 | 199 |
| 2018 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 12 | 112 | 165 |
| 2017 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 111 | 162 |
| 2016 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 11 | 96 | 148 |
| 2015 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 101 | 145 |
More relievers are logging saves. There are fewer in the high end, but more relievers are garnering totals in the 20s. The catch is the number of saves needed in rotisserie scoring to finish at a certain spot in the standings has declined. That is, not as many saves are needed to capture first (or second, or third, etc.) in the category.
Many are adding holds to scoring. This is a discussion for another time. The key here is pricing usually follows ECON 101, supply and demand. Fewer elite closers push the price up, while more midrange options lower the cost.
Todd Zola is an award-winning fantasy sports writer and analyst. He was indicted into the FSWA Hall of Fame in 2020. Todd is the proprietor of the Fantasy Baseball Index Draft Kit, available November 1, and the editor of the relaunched Fantasy Baseball Index Magazine. Both are now available for order.