There are lots of things to keep track of. Personnel, matchups, history, weather. So it was that when I assumed the much better Steelers would win this game comfortably, I overlooked that road divisional games on short weeks don't always go as planned.
Weather was a factor, although it didn't ultimately hold many stats down. It was flurries in the first half but blizzard-like after, and yet oddly the offenses actually managed more production late as the swirling snow got worse. I think in general the guys people started delivered what would have been anticipated in clear conditions (and at least one guy you'd think would have been better in snowy conditions wasn't). But probably a factor at the end in a game the Steelers (I think) really mismanaged down the stretch (with some bad or absent officiating thrown in for good measure).
QUARTERBACKS
Props to Jameis Winston, who quite obviously can play quarterback in the NFL and probably should have been starting somewhere since Tampa Bay moved on in favor of a pretty good quarterback named Tom Brady. Made an amazing play on third down to extend one fourth-quarter drive (threw an interception on the next play, granted, but some impressive work nonetheless). Scored a touchdown on a scramble after having a perfect throw dropped in the back of the end zone. Made the plays to win. If Winston had started all year the Browns would have a few more wins. His next game is against Denver which might not go so well for him, but he got them the win last night.
Russell Wilson is an odd mixed bag. Still can run an offense and make clutch, accurate throws. Made a lot of them last night, including a late touchdown throw (and an incompletion just before where he and George Pickens weren't on the same page). Did enough to win, I thought; even his last Hail Mary attempt was one that seemed good enough to be completed with more/better effort on the part of receivers and arguably a should-have-been flag what with Pickens being carried out of the back of the end zone.
The negatives with Wilson, and this was a weekly issue his two seasons in Denver, are his tendency to hold the ball and take sacks at the worst possible time. Third and short, in or on the outskirts of field goal range. Happened multiple times last night, and about a billion times with the Broncos. It's painful to watch. Cost the Steelers at least one and probably two field goals last night. Get rid of the ball.
Bringing in Justin Fields to possibly pick up a first down with his legs was a brilliant move against the Ravens last week. Element of surprise and such. Arthur Smith said they'd do it more going forward. Give Smith credit for honesty if not wisdom. Because even with Wilson really sharp throwing it last night (11 of 13 in the first half, with a drop in there), they kept coming up with these third and short and fourth and short situations where they brough in Fields to shuffle his feet and get flattened a couple of yards behind the line. Here's the thing: element of surprise is a big factor on these plays, and so is quick decision making. Fields doesn't have the second thing, so if you don't have the first, those plays aren't going to go well. There also needs to be the threat of a pass attempt, which there really wasn't (Fields' lone attempt was a wild sideline pass that I'm not sure what the intent was). Mismanaging. Fields did have a 30-yard run on Pittsburgh's late scoring drive so I guess we'll get more change-up work from him, but I will continue to believe the overall effect was a negative for the offense.
RUNNING BACKS
I advised benching Nick Chubb, which I'm only going to feel a little bad about. Chubb's 20 carries went for 59 yards. But most touchdowns are scored from in close, and Chubb got a couple of layups with the ball inside the 2-yard line that he punched in. Second one shouldn't have happened, more Steeler/officiating mismanagement, but whatever. It was a tough matchup, Chubb doesn't look very good running it, but he can still punch in a short score here and there.
Najee Harris had a lousy game, looking sluggish which happens with him sometimes. A lot of his runs had no chance, the interior blocking was poor and everything just looked out of sync. Snowy conditions that you thought might have helped did not. Jaylen Warren looked much better, though in fairness to Harris, most of Warren's runs were through big holes out of passing formations, including his short touchdown. They keep this tandem because Warren running out of run formations wouldn't go any better, though it also probably wouldn't have been much worse than Harris last night (16 carries, 41 yards). They also put Cordarrelle Patterson on the field to run a bad-looking reverse and to absorb an end-zone target, something that Arthur Smith just can't help himself but do.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Big game for Jerry Jeudy, disputing any notion that Cedric Tillman is the top target. Jeudy caught all 6 passes thrown his way for 85 yards, including a leaping grab in traffic through swirling snow to complete a third and long and an even more critical sliding catch on fourth down on the winning drive. Jeudy finally looking like a former first-round pick. Next game in Denver, he'll probably be the guy seeing the most of former teammate Patrick Surtain.
Tillman caught 2 passes and left early with a concussion, though his stats wouldn't necessarily have been much better. Benched him last night because of the poor matchup rather than the weather. Regardless it seems like his little run of excellence is behind us. Elijah Moore caught 3 short passes. Not a great night for passing and Pittsburgh's defense is good, but at least Jeudy paid off if you had to start him.
George Pickens caught 3 for 41 in the first half, looking like he'd be having a nice game. One 31-yard reception he basically caught with his knees. Just 1 catch after that, though, and it seems like he's not a really well-liked dude by officiating crews. Perhaps because after each incompletion he's calling for a flag, but the reality is that passes thrown his way that aren't completed usually do seem to be incomplete because a defender is mauling him. The refs decided to let a couple of those go, capped by the Hail Mary where he was thrown out of the back of the end zone. I understand reluctance to throw flags on such plays, but you know, the defender definitely wasn't playing the ball there.
Calvin Austin caught all 3 passes thrown his way for 78 yards and a touchdown, what should have been the game-winner. Nice game for him, the clear No. 2 wideout these days. Not really sure why he's only playing a little over half the snaps. They're not throwing to Mike Williams, and Van Jefferson isn't a big factor, though he did have a 35-yard catch on a field goal drive, nice throw by Wilson.
TIGHT ENDS
Darnell Washington is a behemoth; he looks like an offensive lineman. I know he's an athletic guy, or was in college, but he doesn't look like it now. His biggest impact last night was a costly false-start penalty, and passes thrown to him look like about what you might expect from a pass thrown to a tackle eligible. Not to pile on Arthur Smith here, but they're wasting the receiving talents of Pat Freiermuth by using these other tight ends as receivers.
David Njoku was a big disappointment, catching 1 pass. He dropped an easy touchdown in the back of the end zone, maybe the snow was a factor. Humorously after Cleveland scored on the Winston run, Njoku caught a leaping 2-point conversion that was way more difficult. For whatever reason the Browns threw 4 passes to Jordan Akins (3 catches, but also a drop). Yet another tight end, Blake Whiteheart, made the catch of the day from the position, elevated off the practice squad for this game. Njoku disappointed, but 5 targets and a should-have-been touchdown; I don't think anyone can blame themselves for starting him.
MISCELLANEOUS
Several things to say, starting with my sense that Pittsburgh blew this one. First off, winning by a point, the Steelers intercepted Winston with 4 minutes left in the game. Probably should have been it, but on a third and 4 with 3:30 left, the Steelers opted to heave up a deep ball down the sideline to Pickens -- maybe he was interfered with, probably actually -- that fell incomplete. A somewhat higher-percentage play there wins the game, but they didn't go that route. They then had a 15-yard punt where the punter got hit and maybe a little acting on his part would have drawn a flag (it was 4th-and-4, so any flag would do).
Cleveland, starting at Pittsburgh's 45 after that non-punt, ultimately faced a 3rd and 2. Pittsburgh blitzed and forced a desperation flail by Winston that seemed like a potential game-ender. The flag which followed looked like it might be intentional grounding, which would have definitely ended things. Instead it was an illegal touch and a 5-yard penalty.
Pittsburgh initially declined the penalty, setting up a 4th and 2, and either a desperation attempt or a 42-yard field goal, which in the conditions at that point I think it's fair to say would have been unlikely to be successful if they even dared try it. But Mike Tomlin changed his mind, saying afterward he wanted to push Cleveland 5 yards back, making it 3rd and 7. Cleveland converted, Jeudy naturally. At this point the officials stepped in to further help things, throwing a flag on Steelers corner Beanie Bishop for shoving Jeudy at the end of the play. The thing is that Jeudy didn't appear to be touched, so Bishop's heads-up action made sense; the play wasn't over. But the officials didn't see it that way, with the flag setting Cleveland up closer to the goal line, and they won.
If I seem to have talked about this sequence a lot, it's because I watched it about a dozen times trying to figure out what exactly transpired, and why. To me Pittsburgh definitely should have declined the penalty, and the officials definitely shouldn't have flagged Bishop. I'm also not sure intentional grounding shouldn't have been called on Winston. The Steelers also burned a timeout during this sequence, which would have been useful later.
But I guess that's one for Steelers fans to lament. Instead we've got Pittsburgh losing a costly game to a bad team that might ultimately cost them the AFC North.