DETROIT (vs. Buff.): The Lions ran up the score against the Cowboys, Titans and Jaguars, averaging over 50 points. If we set those three games to the side, Detroit’s offense has scored 31 touchdowns in its other 10 games – about 3 per week.
They’re at home this week, but against an opponent allowing under 2 TDs per week. It seems unlikely the Lions will be held down at that level; their offense has scored at least 3 TDs in all but three games this year. But probably just 3 TDs, and not more.
The big-picture numbers say the Bills are average against the run, but if we remove the Baltimore game (showing up on the wrong night against Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson) than it looks like more of a top-10 run defense. Regardless, Buffalo hasn’t played well enough that anybody will be scared off from starting Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. They’ve been balling all year, and they’re the main cogs of the offense. There’s not a lot of difference between them. Gibbs is averaging 19 more rushing yards per week, but Montgomery has run for more yards in over half of their games. They’ve both scored 12 touchdowns, and they’re both averaging 24 receiving yards. Probably both will come in a little below their usual, given the quality of the opponent. But the Rams beat Buffalo on Sunday largely because they patiently stuck with the run, carrying it 42 times for 137 yards. The Lions likely will go with the same kind of plan.
It makes sense to rank Jared Goff lower than usual, with Buffalo having a top-10 pass defense. Goff has thrown 3-plus touchdowns five times, but all of those games were against defenses far inferior to this one. Buffalo has held Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray under 200 yards and limited Geno Smith to only 212 in Seattle. Detroit tends to score about half of its touchdowns on runs, making it look awfully easy to envision Goff finishing with something like 230 yards and a touchdown. With him not being a factor at all as a runner, he could be leaving the week with below-average overall numbers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has gone three games without scoring, but nobody should be moving off the position that he’s one of the top 10 wide receivers in the league. He’s the featured receiver on the highest-scoring offense in the league – the guy Jared Goff trusts more than anyone else. Previously, St. Brown scored in eight straight games, and he’s still that same guy. He’s not a burner (only 1 catch of 30-plus all year) but he’ll be working the underneath stuff, catching a half dozen passes. For the season, St. Brown is averaging 6.2 catches for 66 yards, with 9 TDs.
Jameson Williams has been busier of late, catching 5 passes in three straight games. He didn’t catch 5 passes in any of his six previous games. But opponents are more aware of his big-play ability now, making it harder to hit on those plays. And with Williams being pencil thin, they don’t use him much in traffic or in the red zone. All four of his touchdowns have come from at least 37 yards. The Bills have a good, sound defense, making it less likely that Williams will be getting deep for a 70-yard touchdown on a busted coverage.
Tim Patrick caught two short touchdowns last week – his first touchdowns since 2021 (because of injuries, he didn’t play at all the last two seasons). While Patrick isn’t particularly likely to score again, he has been playing a larger role recently. With Kalif Raymond on IR, Patrick has been on the field for at least two thirds of their plays in three of the last four games, and his size makes him their best blocking wide receiver. Patrick doesn’t have much speed, but he’s caught 15 passes in his last four games. He’s gone over 40 yards in his last three. Seems like he’ll be catching 3-plus balls.
Entering the season, most expected Sam LaPorta would ascend up to the top tier of tight ends. He averaged 5.1 catches as a rookie, with 10 touchdowns. That hasn’t happened; he’s averaging only 3 catches per week. But he’s been coming on some of late, at least, with 22 catches in his last six (3.7 per week), and with 4 of his 5 TD catches. Why, exactly, he wasn’t putting up those kind of numbers earlier in the season we can’t be sure, but it seems like the new normal. He’ll face a defense that’s been above-average against the position. Travis Kelce and George Kittle in recent weeks have both been held under 10 yards by this defense (though in Kittle’s case, snow was involved).
The Bills have been a top-5 team against kickers, but we’re slotting Jake Bates as a middle-of-the-pack kicker anyway. With Buffalo having a better defense, this seems like a game where Bates might be attempting more field goals than usual.
The Lions Defense looks like a below-average option. Without Aidan Hutchinson, the pass rush has fallen off (19 sacks in first six games, but just 12 in the last seven). And the matchup here is lousy anyway, with Buffalo being about the best team in the league at avoiding sacks and turnovers.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 15 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst Package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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