The stolen base is back in MLB after the recent rule changes, but there remain stolen base difference makers in 5x5 rotisserie-scoring leagues.
It’s never too early to prepare for your draft, and some of us draft fiends are already setting our draft dates for 2025 or even drafting now.
For nearly a decade, I contributed of series of offseason features at Rotoworld breaking down category sleepers at each of the 5x5 roto categories. Over 10 weeks, I will be providing a list of sleepers for each 5x5 roto category (BA, HR, RBI, R, SB, W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV).
Before reading any further, it’s important to note the definition of a sleeper. In this case, it’s a player who will exceed draft day ADP AND projections in a particular category. The players are broken down by mixed league sleepers and single league sleepers.
Mixed League Players
Dylan Crews, OF, Nationals
The second overall pick in the 2023 draft out of LSU, Crews announced his arrival in Washington late last season. The center fielder produced only a .641 OPS over that time, but he made a bigger impact over his 31 games as a leadoff man with excellent center field defense. For fantasy managers, that meant 12 stolen bases and three home runs despite swiping only 25 bases in 100 games between Double- and Triple-A earlier in the year.
Crews wasn’t much of a base stealer in college, maxing out at 12 in his first season, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t capable. His early sprint speed was in the 93rd percentile, according to Baseball Savant, and manager Dave Martinez apparently gave him the green light. He wasn’t the only player, as the Nats ranked first in stolen bases (223) and attempts (296). There’s no reason to think Martinez will halt Crews anytime soon. If Crews’ stolen base pace continues, his NFBC ADP near 144 isn’t overpriced.
Jonny DeLuca, OF, Rays
DeLuca was acquired by Tampa Bay in the Tyler Glasnow trade last offseason, but had a relatively pedestrian first full year hitting only .217-6-31 with 16 steals in 107 games. He had trouble carving out regular playing time for much of the year. Fortunately, that’s not expected to be an issue in 2025 after the Rays traded regular center fielder Jose Siri, opening up center field for DeLuca.
An accomplished prospect, DeLuca has a career .887 OPS with 67 home runs and 59 steals in 304 minor league games, showing his power and speed potential. The Baseball Savant numbers back up that talent, with 98th percentile sprint speed. The Rays also showed a willingness to run last year, ranking fourth in stolen base attempts. The question for DeLuca will be his lineup spot, as he was routinely near the bottom of the order, but he seems to be a shoo in for 20-plus steals if he plays at a very cheap ADP near 450.
Thairo Estrada, 2B, Rockies
After two excellent and nearly identical seasons with the Giants in 2022 and 2023, Estrada had a 2024 season he’d like to forget. He played only 96 games, hitting .217 with two steals while battling injuries. That made San Francisco’s decision to move on much easier in the offseason, but the Rockies might have found themselves a bargain as they look to replace former top prospect Brendan Rodgers at second base.
Estrada had a combined 44 stolen bases in 2022-2023 as a featured player near the top of San Francisco’s batting order. At least at the start of the season, the top of the order is spoken for in Colorado with Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar, but that doesn’t mean Estrada can’t work himself up the order with a strong start. He has plenty of experience hitting at Coors Field with a .971 OPS in 24 games and still showed 70th percentile speed last season in spite of his injury issues. Estrada’s ADP has been rising, around 435 since mid-December, but that’s still a spot where he can be profitable for not only steals but his overall game playing half his time at Coors Field.
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Diamondbacks
Prior to last season, Lawlar was listed among the elite prospects in the game. He made his MLB debut in 2023 after just turning 21, and had hit .278-20-67 with 36 steals in 105 games between Double- and Triple-A earlier that season. It was the second time in his minor league career the former sixth overall pick in the draft stole more than 30 bases, and he showed 99th percentile speed upon his arrival.
Unfortunately, Lawlar had a huge setback last season due to injuries. He played only 23 minor league games last season due to thumb and hamstring injuries. As a result, the Diamondbacks sent Lawlar to the Dominican Winter League this offseason to get more work, and have already pumped the breaks on handing him the shortstop job to open 2025. That’s understandable with last year’s injuries and the presence of Geraldo Perdomo, but Lawlar is still capable of knocking the door down and becoming an MLB star. He’s also added to his versatility, seeing time at third base both in the minors and the Dominican. Players with 20/40 upside, as Lawlar has shown in the minors, are rarely available beyond ADP 300, but that’s where he falls early in the offseason.
Single League Players
Luisangel Acuna, SS, Mets
Acuna’s background doesn’t need much introduction as the younger brother of Braves superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. While Luisangel’s stance and swing resembles his older brother, the 22-year-old is lacking in size and stature at 5-foot-8. As a result, has hasn’t shown nearly the power of his older brother in spite of the three home runs he hit in only 14 games during his MLB debut last season. The good news is that the speed did carry over.
Acuna has stolen at least 40 bases in four consecutive pro seasons, culminating with 40 steals in 131 games at Triple-A Syracuse last year. He’s also highly regarded defensively, with experience at shortstop, second base, and center field. Acuna’s versatility will be key to finding playing time with the Mets, as he’s obviously blocked by Francisco Lindor at shortstop. At the time of this writing, Acuna does have a shot at playing time at either second base or center field, with Jeff McNeil, Ronny Mauricio, and Jose Siri the current roadblocks. Granted, there are questions about Acuna’s bat after only hitting .258 with a .299 OBP at Triple-A last season, but the downside projection here is a key bench piece who can contribute steals late in games. He’s worthy of a flier pick in NL-only leagues.
Ryan Bliss, 2B, Mariners
The Mariners liked what they saw in Bliss’ debut last season, playing 33 games and hitting .222-2-9 with five stolen bases as a second baseman and pinch runner. The former second-round pick is only 5-foot-7, but he’s done a very nice job in two seasons at Triple-A hitting .257/.362/.450 with 23 home runs and 75 steals in 153 games. Bliss has shown more power than his size would suggest, and his 82nd percentile speed shows the stolen base potential.
At the time of this writing in early January, Bliss’ chance of playing time is interesting. The Mariners have apparently moved on from Jorge Polanco, and have yet to add competition for Bliss at second base. It should be noted that top prospects Cole Young and Colt Emerson are seen as more viable long-term answers on the middle infield, but would the Mariners decide to give Bliss a shot as a placeholder in the short term given his strong minor league track record, speed, and solid defense? It shouldn’t shock anyone if Bliss becomes a more well-known name as we get closer to draft season.
Caleb Durbin, 2B, Brewers
Durbin doesn’t have the big name or high draft status of Acuna or Bliss, but the profile isn’t that much different. He’s an undersized natural second baseman with excellent speed, as shown by his record-breaking 29 steals in the recent Arizona Fall League season. Durbin’s added skill is plate discipline and contact ability, as shown in his 53/40 BB/K in 406 plate appearances in the minor league season and 17/6 BB/K at the AFL.
A key part of the Devin Williams trade with the Yankees, Durbin has a chance to effectively replace Willy Adames on the Brewers roster. During the AFL, he saw most of his work at third base and also saw action in center field, left field, shortstop, and his natural position of second base. With Joey Ortiz likely stepping in as the regular shortstop, Durbin should see work all over the diamond and become an NL-only stolen base asset with three 30-plus steal seasons under his belt as a pro.
Chandler Simpson, OF, Rays
From a fantasy perspective, Simpson is one of the more interesting prospects to come around in a while. His profile resembles Juan Pierre with absolutely no power to speak of (career .375 SLG), but he has elite contact ability, batting average, and speed. He tore up High-A and Double-A last season, hitting .355 with 104 steals and 44/43 BB/K in 110 games while mostly playing center field.
The test will become much greater as Simpson sees more advanced pitching. Over the years, the number of players who have succeeded with Simpson’s profile are few and far between, and the difficulty could be even greater in the modern MLB era with top-end velocity and more breaking pitches. That said, Simpson’s on-base ability and great defense in center field have value, and the numbers-centric Rays are certainly aware of the upside. Should the aforementioned DeLuca struggle again this season, Simpson will be waiting in the wings and could provide top 100 fantasy potential in the second half of the season.
--Seth Trachtman