Week 18 is coming up, but there's relatively little drama to it. We don't know for sure who the AFC's 7th seed that gets bounced by Buffalo will be, and we don't know which NFC North team will get the bye. But that's basically it. (Sorry, Falcons.)
So for those already thinking about their playoff competitions, I'm going to skip over the final week of the regular season, make some guesses as to how the seeding turned out, and make some further guesses as to how the playoffs will turn out. Our official Playoff products (The ReDrafter, and two weeks of Fantasy Index Weekly issues for the playoffs) are yet to come, but here's where my mind is at on these things in the here and now.
Results will be official when we publish, for now I need to make some guesses -- some controversial, some less so.
AFC: No. 1 seed Kansas City, No. 2 seed Buffalo, No. 3 seed Baltimore, No. 4 seed Houston, No. 5 seed Pittsburgh, No. 6 seed Los Angeles, No. 7 seed Denver.
This is in line with what everyone has figured for the past month or so. The controversial guess is that Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati tomorrow night. Not a given. If the Bengals win, I still don't think they're going to the playoffs (need the Broncos and Dolphins to lose), but it would enable the Chargers to steal the 5th seed. Possible. But I had to guess one way or the other, so I'm going with the Steelers as the 5 and the Chargers as the 6.
NFC: No. 1 seed Minnesota, No. 2 seed Philadelphia, No. 3 seed Tampa Bay, No. 4 seed L.A. Rams, No. 5 seed Detroit, No. 6 seed Washington, No. 7 seed Green Bay.
Bucs are beating New Orleans, and the Rams are losing to Seattle, which will make the Bucs the 3 and Los Angeles the 4. Washington beating Dallas is less certain, but if that happens, they'll get the higher seed over Green Bay. The bold pick involves Minnesota beating Detroit Sunday night. Could go either way, of course. Minnesota has the better defense, Lions are on a short week, Vikings have a little more of a team of destiny feel. I don't know. I went with Minnesota, could go either way.
First-round winners: Buffalo, Baltimore, Pittsburgh; Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Detroit.
I've got both 5 seeds winning. They'll be favored, so not bold picks. Might there be an upset somewhere, sure. Houston can certainly beat Pittsburgh. The Packers or Commanders could win a shootout. But gotta cast my vote somewhere.
Second-round winners: Kansas City, Buffalo, Minnesota, Philadelphia.
Just as it is in Week 18, the winner of a Week 20 Vikings-Lions game is very uncertain. That's the crazy thing about the matchup: barring an unlikely upset (a 14-3 team losing to the NFC's 4th seed), Vikings-Lions will definitely be happening again in the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs, no matter who wins on Sunday. So big as this Sunday night's game is, it seems like they're basically playing to see who gets to host that Week 20 matchup. (And who gets to rest next week, and who has to go to L.A. or perhaps Tampa to win a road shootout.) I'm going with Minnesota, but really it's a 55-45 percent kind of pick. Neither would surprise me. And I think whoever wins will be going to the Super Bowl.
Kansas City beating Pittsburgh, or Houston -- duh. Both of those outcomes happened very recently, and neither was close. Buffalo beating Baltimore is less certain, with the Bills getting blown off the field early in the season at Baltimore. But the Ravens aren't as tough on the road or in the postseason, and I don't think anyone is going into Buffalo and winning. Including the Ravens.
Minnesota (or Detroit) over Philadelphia, Buffalo over Kansas City.
The Vikings, the Lions and the Bills have something in common. (Texans and Chargers too, but no one cares.) They've never won a Super Bowl. People are talking about how great Vikings-Bills would be, with one team that's gone 0-4 in Super Bowls finally winning, while the other drops to 0-5, sad. But Lions-Bills would be similarly great, without the 0-5 elements if the Lions lose. But I think they are comparably downtrodden.
So them's my picks. Hopefully people can agree with one thing: Buffalo-Kansas City and Detroit/Minnesota-Philadelphia would be two awesome conference championship games. Even our lousy officiating crews and Roger Goodell probably couldn't screw those matchups up.