While it's a difficult category to forecast, saves are a necessary evil in most 5x5 rotisserie-scoring leagues.
It’s never too early to prepare for your draft, and some of us draft fiends are already setting our draft dates for 2025 or even drafting now.
For nearly a decade, I contributed of series of offseason features at Rotoworld breaking down category sleepers at each of the 5x5 roto categories. Over 10 weeks, I will be providing a list of sleepers for each 5x5 roto category (BA, HR, RBI, R, SB, W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV).
Before reading any further, it’s important to note the definition of a sleeper. In this case, it’s a player who will exceed draft day ADP AND projections in a particular category. The players are broken down by mixed league sleepers and single league sleepers.
Saves are one of the most frustrating categories for fantasy managers because we are at the mercy of major league managers. Much of the fun in fantasy preparation is forecasting based on indicators, talent, and predictable skill, yet saves are just as much about opportunity and being in the right place at the right time.
Below is a rundown of the obvious saves sleepers heading into 2025 – mostly pitchers with a history of closing and at least a fair probability of getting a significant opportunity to close at some point this season. Also, there are a few less obvious picks to keep an eye on. Despite our best efforts to predict, there will surely be a few new closers crowned in 2025 that no one expected. With the cost of saves rising due to lack of supply, the added unpredictability makes the strategy of dumping saves seem that much more attractive.
The Obvious (Mixed League Worthy)
David Bednar, Pirates
The 2024 season was one to forget for Bednar. The right-hander converted 23 saves, but he also finished with a 5.77 ERA and control issues while fighting an oblique injury for much of the season. It was a huge downfall for a pitcher who led the NL with 39 saves in 2023, adding a 2.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.
Despite the ugly season, there’s a lot of reason for hope. Bednar’s velocity was actually up last season, averaging 97 mph on his fastball, and the Pirates have yet to add any significant competition for the job after allowing Aroldis Chapman to walk in free agency. Having confidence in Bednar’s rebound includes a lot of hoping and praying that the injury issues are behind him, but the strong velocity and reasonable 175 ADP in NFBC Draft Champions leagues provide opportunity for a major bargain if he rebounds.
Lucas Erceg, Royals
The Royals revamped their bullpen at the trade deadline, most notable adding Erceg and Hunter Harvey. Harvey had more closing experience, but an injury pushed Erceg into the role. He ran with the opportunity, showing elite control with 31/3 K/BB in 25 innings and converting 11 saves.
Based on Erceg’s success, he’s clearly the favorite for saves in KC entering Spring Training. His rapid control improvement last season comes with some caution, as he posted a 5.9 BB/9 in 2023 and in the minors. On the other hand, Erceg’s relative inexperience as a full-time pitcher provides some possible explanation, as he served as a corner infielder through 2021. If the control holds, the Royals could have an elite closer on their hands, and Erceg will generate profit even at his 117 ADP.
Carlos Estevez, Free Agent
Estevez’s inclusion on the list comes with a disclaiming, as his draft value will change one way or another whenever he’s signed by an MLB team. However, for fantasy managers drafting in early January, he appears to be an excellent value with an ADP around 240.
The right-hander has served as a full-time closer over the last two seasons with the Angels and Phillies. He really found his footing last year, posting a 2.45 ERA and 26 saves over 54 appearances, showing drastically improved control with only 12 walks in 55 innings. He has closer stuff, with a fastball that averaged 97 mph, and a slider that showed improvement last season. While Estevez’s 3.24 FIP and 3.57 SIERA shows likely ERA inflation ahead, this is an excellent profit opportunity for now.
Ben Joyce, Angels
Following the trade of Carlos Estevez, Joyce stepped in as the Angels closer. He’s appeared to be a closer in the making, if for not other reason than his velocity with an outlandish four-seamer that averaged 102 mph last season. However, it was the addition of a sinker last season that makes Joyce even more interesting.
The flamethrower became a groundball pitcher overnight as a result of his new sinker, with an elite 59% groundball rate. His new approach pitching to contact also led to a substantial decline in walks (19% in 2023 to 10% in 2024), and made Joyce a viable MLB pitcher. The Angels spent big on relief pitcher Robert Stephenson last offseason, but the team might not see back from Tommy John surgery until midseason, giving Joyce time to gain momentum in the closer role. Even on a bad Angels team, Joyce’s 187 ADP looks like a buying opportunity.
The Less Obvious (Single League Worthy)
Aaron Ashby, Brewers
Despite the trade of Devin Williams, Ashby isn’t often mentioned in Milwaukee’s closer picture. The team used some combination of Trevor Megill, Joel Payamps, and Abner Uribe while Williams was sidelined in the first half of last season, eventually settling on Megill. Megill fared well in the job, and is rightfully assumed to be the favorite entering Spring Training. However, Megill’s durability concerns are worth mentioning, as last season was the first time he reached 50 appearances as a pro.
So where does Ashby measure up in the Brewers closer picture? He’s certainly trailing at this point, but it might not take much for him to ascend. Returning from shoulder surgery last season, Ashby was erratic early in the season as a starter, but looked like his old self as a member of the pen following a late-August promotion. With the help of a velocity uptick and his nasty sinker, Ashby posted an elite 1.37 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and 28/3 K/BB in 19.2 innings. His role appears unclear entering the season, but last year’s success could spur the team to leave him in the pen. With a 436 ADP in NFBC Draft Champions, Ashby can create profit without saves and has the upside to be a top closer.
Prelander Berroa, White Sox
There’s a viable argument to be made that fantasy managers should avoid the White Sox closer situation entirely after last season. Michael Kopech was the top option for much of the year, and even he held little value until getting traded to the Dodgers. The team netted a league-worst 21 saves, and haven’t done anything this season to indicate substantial improvement is imminent.
However, there are going to be saves speculators, especially in 50 round Draft Champions leagues, and Berroa is an interesting option. The 24-year-old right-hander throws smoke, averaging nearly 98 mph on his fastball, and also has a plus slider when he can get it over the plate. His biggest issue is control, which led to struggles at Triple-A last season (6.41 ERA), but the late-inning potential is still undeniable. The control is worth watching in Spring Training, as any improvement could make Berroa the favorite for saves on the futile White Sox roster.
Tyler Kinley, Rockies
The Rockies closer situation is another one that might not be worth your attention. If you are going to scour for saves, there are a few viable options led by Kinley. It seems unbelievable in retrospect, but he led the team with 12 saves last season in spite of a 6.19 ERA. He got run as the closer at various points in the season, converting three saves in June, three more in August, and four saves in September before getting shut down for the year with elbow inflammation.
The hard-throwing Seth Halvorsen finished the season as the closer and shows promise. As the Rox continue to rebuild, the logic says that they probably should give Halvorsen another shot, but fantasy managers have learned the hard way that what the Rockies should do and what they actually do can be very different. Kinley has earned manager Bud Black’s trust in them past, and he’s almost free in Draft Champions leagues with an ADP near 656, over 200 picks behind Halvorsen. At the very least, Kinley could be worth a late-round stash like he was last season.
Edwin Uceta, Rays
The Rays have made Pete Fairbanks their primary closer over the last three seasons, when healthy. It’s notable that the right-hander still hasn’t reached 50 appearances in a single year in the majors over his six seasons, and last season showed signs of decline with a plunging strikeout rate and velocity.
How much of Fairbanks’ decline last season was due to injury? That’s up for debate, but it would be smart to have a backup plan. Tampa Bay employed a committee late in the year when Fairbanks was sidelined, with Garrett Cleavinger and Uceta leading the way. Uceta was the team’s most dominant reliever, finishing his breakout season with a 1.51 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 57/8 K/BB in 41.2 innings. At worst, he appears to be a pitcher to pair with Fairbanks in drafts, and it shouldn’t be a surprise if he emerges as the team’s top closer option sooner than later. With an ADP near 350, the price is fair and he can contribute even without saves if last season’s trends continue.
--Seth Trachtman