It was a mostly predictable first weekend of games, leading to the thought that perhaps the league has too many playoff teams? The first four games all saw the higher seed winning by double-digits. But the NFL correctly put the most competitive game in primetime last night, and it should be a mostly entertaining Divisional Round. On to the recap.
Chargers at Texans: It's not every game where one play changes the momentum as dramatically as in this one. A bad snap that C.J. Stroud had to chase down near the goal line looked like it was going to maybe stick Houston in a 13-0 hole. Instead Stroud corralled it, made a pretty sweet downfield throw, and the Texans turned it into a 99-yard scoring drive for a touchdown. ESPN used the word "unraveled" for what happened to the Chargers from that point on, and I don't want to steal it but it's absolutely the correct word. A Pick Six on a Herbert overthrow, another interception on a ball that bounced off Will Dissly's hands (he had another drop, too), and suddenly the Chargers were the team in a hole, and they had to abandon the run, couldn't cover Nico Collins, couldn't corral Stroud on scrambles -- it was all Houston. I didn't invest much in the Chargers in playoff competitions (sadly not using Ladd McConkey and his huge game in a one-and-done, not because we didn't rank him high, we did, but because I thought LA would win. Houston moves on, and I won't underestimate them next week. Gonna be a long offseason for Justin Herbert off that game.
Steelers at Ravens: Tough one for the Steelers, but not surprising in any way. Russell Wilson for a couple of years now has been the king of finishing with good-looking stat lines that belie just how poor he looks in actual game situations. Still can make the occasional good throw and put the ball in the end zone. Really bad in short-yardage, critical situations, or when taking a sack is the worst possible outcome. I don't know what the Steelers are going to do going forward, but there's very little on this offense that they need to bring back for next season. Huge games for Lamar Jackson (it was a little scary to watch how much he was running and taking hits in the first half) and Derrick Henry (what a game). I questioned a couple of people who used him in a start-guys-only-once league -- what if Baltimore makes the Super Bowl? -- but that was probably his best game of the playoffs right there, and it'd be nice to have those points. Ravens gonna be a tough out if they have the ground game cooking like that. Some thought Zay Flowers being out was a bigger deal than it was; they can obviously win without him.
Broncos at Bills: Uh closer than the final score? Indeed, Denver was a field goal off the upright away from a 10-10 halftime score. But Buffalo pretty much moved the ball successfully the entire game; Denver was somewhat fortunate to be close at halftime, with Buffalo dominating time of possession and Denver essentially having an outstanding opening drive and touchdown but virtually nothing from that point on. Bo Nix made a couple of great plays and throws, including a couple to move the team into position for that near-miss field goal. But he was short on running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, plus Denver couldn't stop the run in this game and probably needs some help at inside linebacker too. As for the Bills, Josh Allen staked his MVP case with big throws and timely runs throughout, James Cook and Ty Johnson both looked good, Khalil Shakir and even Dawson Knox made some big grabs. Thought it was a little odd that Sean McDermott had Allen getting blown up on pass plays with Buffalo ahead 28-7 with 5 minutes left in the game, but coaches gotta coach. Anyway, Bills win as expected and we get Lamar-Josh next week, as expected. Kansas City has to be thrilled they only have to face one of them.
Packers at Eagles: This was a bad football game, and painful for the Packers, who had players being carted off the field throughout. Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs left with injury, Jordan Love threw one pretty awful interception (among his 3), and the fill-in receivers looked like they were fill-ins. There were a lot of flags, mostly warranted but it tended to ruin the overall flow of the game. Philadelphia seemed content to win by just running the ball and taking advantage of Green Bay miscues, which worked out. The Eagles might have the best defense in the postseason, certainly on the NFC side, so it won't be surprising if next week's playoff game (against the winner of tonight's matchup) is similar. Josh Jacobs wound up having a big game, Saquon Barkley dismayed some bettors by intentionally going down rather than scoring on a late breakaway run, and A.J. Brown caught only one pass but got some reading done on the sidelines ("I like to read.").
Commanders at Bucs: Not to make a Michael Vick comparison, but I remember when the favored Packers hosted Vick's Falcons in the playoffs way back when, and Atlanta ran the Packers off Lambeau Field. Jayden Daniels wasn't quite that productive as a runner, but I had a feeling he might come out running and extending drives, and he did, helping Washington control the clock for most of the game and pull out the late win. Daniels also made some pretty throws, none moreso than an early bomb to Terry McLaurin that was one of the better throws and catches all weekend. Washington's conventional ground game did absolutely nothing and should also struggle at Detroit next week, but I think Lions fans have reason to be concerned about this do-it-all rookie quarterback coming in and making things interesting. (At least they don't have to see Matthew Stafford come in and beat them, at least not this week.) Bucs kind of blew this game with a late miscue on a reverse, but they also just didn't have the ball enough, plus Washington's defense played about its best game against a strong opposing offense all year.
Monday, Monday: One more Monday night game this year, and it should be a good one, with lots of passing, more offense than defense, and maybe coming down to a late drive or two. Or the Vikings pass rush will cause problems for Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold will have another game like he did in Detroit in Week 18; that's the other possibility. But in general I'm expecting a higher scoring game. Rams 27, Vikings 24.