The coaching carousel is in full swing, with some coaches being fired and others jetting around the country to interview with different teams for their head coaching jobs. Sometimes they're the same people, which is hard to fully understand.
It's true, everyone gets fired at one point or another, and plenty of the victims will go on to be successful at their next stop. The best example of this is Bill Belichick, fired by the Cleveland Browns and going on to have a bit of success with the New England Patriots.
But more often the failures in one place (for example, Adam Gase with the Dolphins) also fail in their next opportunity (Adam Gase with the Jets). Frequently we see teams seemingly interviewing and at times hiring guys just because they had head coaching experience, no matter how it turned out. How else to explain the Jaguars reportedly targeting Robert Saleh as their next head coach, and the Bears and Saints interviewing Mike McCarthy for their available jobs. (The Bears are doubling up on recently fired head coaches, interviewing Ron Rivera this week; the Jets also interviewed Rivera.)
The interest from multiple teams in hiring McCarthy confuses me. Yes, he was a winner for a number of years with Green Bay, and also with Dallas. In the regular season. He has a Super Bowl win, which not a ton of people can say.
But I'd argue that considering the hand he has always been dealt in his career, McCarthy hasn't been particularly successful. He's been a head coach for 18 years, and had a franchise quarterback for all of them (Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott) -- a Hall of Famer for the vast majority of those years. A difference maker at the toughest to fill and by far the most important position in the sport. And other than 2005 (that's 20 years ago) when Rodgers led the Packers to the championship, McCarthy has overseen teams that have been checked out with losses in their first postseason game five times and their second postseason game five times. Seven of those games were at home, often with heavily favored teams.
Table shows McCarthy coaching record in years he took teams to the playoffs.
| MCCARTHY COACHING (PLAYOFF TEAMS) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Regular | Playoffs |
| 2007 | 13-3-0 | 1-1 |
| 2009 | 11-5-0 | 0-1 |
| 2010 | 10-6-0 | 4-0 |
| 2011 | 15-1-0 | 0-1 |
| 2012 | 11-5-0 | 1-1 |
| 2013 | 8-7-1 | 0-1 |
| 2014 | 12-4-0 | 1-1 |
| 2015 | 10-6-0 | 1-1 |
| 2016 | 10-6-0 | 2-1 |
| 2021 | 12-5-0 | 0-1 |
| 2022 | 12-5-0 | 1-1 |
| 2023 | 12-5-0 | 0-1 |
There are a lot of head coaching vacancies around the league, and someone will take the plunge and hire McCarthy. If they have a franchise quarterback in place, maybe that team will get to the playoffs next season. But if they do, don't bet on McCarthy being the guy who gets that team any further than its first playoff game. For most of his career, he's seemed to be along for the ride.
--Andy Richardson