Avoiding catcher busts is key in fantasy baseball leagues with the difficulty of finding replacements on waivers. These five catchers are overvalued heading into drafts.
While finding sleepers is important, avoiding overvalued landmines in the draft pool can be even more important in fantasy leagues. Making the wrong decisions on draft day can put you behind in the standings early, without the ability to catch up. These five catchers could be overvalued “busts” based on their early average draft positions.
Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers
Few catchers in baseball can claim to be as consistent as Smith. After the last four seasons, he’s averaged .257-22-79, and he’s never hit fewer than 19 home runs or 75 RBI during that time. Smith has also been an All-Star in back-to-back seasons, so the secret is out to the broader public, so to speak.
There’s plenty of reason to like Smith’s floor, but what about the ceiling? That’s where his case becomes more complicated. The addition of the designated hitter in the NL was a coup for Smith’s playing time, as he appeared in 25 games at DH in 2022 and 14 games at DH in 2023. Then came the arrival of superstar Shohei Ohtani last season. As expected, Smith’s opportunities for a rest day as the DH were all but removed, appearing only three times. While he still managed to play 128 games, Smith had more limited margin to rest from injury and also more limited playing time upside. With an ADP near 100, the argument isn’t that Smith will burn you but rather that he doesn’t provide the possibility of significant profit for a price where it's often needed.
J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies
Realmuto has been a stalwart for fantasy managers since his days as a Marlin and a regular in the top tier since 2016. His impressive career includes three Silver Sluggers, four 20-plus home run seasons, and double-digit steals in four seasons, as well. Frankly, a lot of fantasy managers have Realmuto to thank for some Yoo-hoo showers over the years.
Yet, it appears Realmuto could be breaking down as he enters his age 34 season. He was limited to only 99 games last year, missing time to knee surgery, and the Phillies have already stated he could be rested more often than previous years this season. We also saw his home run pace decline slightly (3.4%) with a .163 ISO that was his worst since 2016. Realmuto is priced accordingly with an ADP of 142, but the risk remains of him burning fantasy managers at that price as the 10th catcher drafted.
Joey Bart, Pittsburgh Pirates
The second overall pick in the 2018 draft, Bart was supposed to be the heir apparent to Buster Posey in San Francisco. Unfortunately, due to injuries and poor play, that never happened, and he was traded to Pittsburgh shortly after Opening Day last season. When one door closed the other opened for Bart, who gained regular playing time with the Pirates and hit .265-13-45 in only 80 games.
Did a change of scenery finally do the trick for Bart? That’s unclear, but there are multiple reasons for skepticism. Bart was only a .276-17-82 hitter in 574 career plate appearances at Triple-A, mostly at the very hitter-friendly PCL. Prior to last season, Bart hit only .218-11-38 in 503 MLB plate appearances. Bart showed marked improvement in his contact rate last season, fanning only 26% of the time, but the history still shows some reason to be wary of production at last year’s rate. Perhaps more importantly, he will eventually have top prospect Endy Rodriguez to contend with for at-bats, who missed all of last year due to injury but is seen as the long-term solution at catcher for the Pirates.
Jonah Heim, Texas Rangers
After a breakout 2023 season in which Heim was an All-Star and set career highs in batting average, home runs, and RBI, last season was more like what we saw from him in 2022. His batting average plunged 38 points, and Heim also saw sharp declines in runs, RBI, and doubles. The hope is that Heim can rebound, but there’s more reason to think 2023 was a fluke.
Heim was only a .250 hitter during his minor league career and was pushed to the bottom of the batting order more often last season after hitting in the No. 6 spot for most of 2023. There’s no imminent reason to expect a promotion after Heim had a .602 OPS last season, and the addition of Kyle Higashioka is a major threat to Heim’s playing time. The price has fallen, with Heim outside the top 300 and the 26th catcher drafted, but he’s a risk even at that price.
Miguel Amaya, Chicago Cubs
Amaya gradually gained playing time last season, finishing out the year as the Cubs regular catcher with 363 plate appearances. It wasn’t exactly a great year offensively, as Amaya hit only .232-8-47 but generally graded well defensively as the team moved on from Yan Gomes.
An ADP near 370 puts Amaya as a fringe starter in two-catcher leagues, but there’s reason to think even that price could be too high with the present competition. Chicago signed Carson Kelly, who had a bit of a rebound season offensively in 2024 between the Tigers and Rangers. Also concerning for Amaya is the imminent arrival of Moises Ballesteros, a gifted hitting prospect who is still finding his way defensively behind the plate. A career .738 OPS in the minors shows Amaya’s offensive limitations, and even paying for playing time could be a poor investment.
--Seth Trachtman