Fantasy Index

Factoid

Kicker craziness on the rise

Position more unpredictable than ever before

I notice that there’s been more fluctuation with kickers of late. More teams have been able to pull off the worst-to-first kind of moves.

Of the 10 teams finishing with the most kicking points last year, for example, half the previous season finished in the bottom 10. That’s the most ever, I imagine (though I didn’t check the numbers prior to the move to 32 teams in 2002).

In both 2020 and 2023 seasons, four teams were able to pull off that level of movement. In each of the last nine years, in fact, multiple teams have been able to climb from bottom 10 to top 10. In all but two of those seasons, at least three did it.

That being the case, I suppose we should be looking at the bottom 10 teams from last year and picking out about three that will be dramatically improved. But it’s not a promising bunch: Seahawks, Saints, Jaguars, Titans, Patriots, Panthers, Giants, Bears, Jets, Browns.

KICKERS MOVING FROM BOTTOM 10 TO TOP 10
YearTeamPointsRkPrev YrRk
2024• Washington14758931
2024• Detroit1427t10528
2024• Minnesota1502t10826
2024• Pittsburgh158111424
2024• Green Bay1427t11522t
2023Chicago136510229t
2023New Orleans13010t10229t
2023Cleveland132910728
2023Houston133811125
2022Seattle14319528
2022Carolina1297t10425t
2021Philadelphia1349t6632
2021Minnesota1356t8230
2021New England1501t10823t
2020Buffalo14149626t
2020Chicago1269t9626t
2020Miami1442t9825
2020Indianapolis13959924
2019Arizona12765932
2019Tampa Bay124810023
2018NY Giants12787430t
2018Green Bay124107829
2018Houston15029225
2017LA Rams16818032
2017San Francisco14548729
2017Tennessee136910523t
2016New Orleans13359828
2016Houston1278t10126t
2016Philadelphia135410523

This is more movement than in the past. Looking at the other 14 seasons in which the league had 32 teams, I see five seasons with either no team or just one team making the climb up from bottom 10 to top 10. In only three of those seasons were three teams able to do it.

For totaled numbers, only 24 teams in those 14 years were able to make the big move up. Now it’s happened 29 times in nine years.

I don’t know why this is occurring. I suppose it’s tied to the labor agreement changes made in 2011, with teams tending to change more rapidly.

For fantasy purposes, I it means you’re more likely to see a good kicker who isn’t even selected in your draft.

The Steelers were a bottom-10 kicking team in 2023 but Chris Boswell last year led the league with 158 points.

KICKERS MOVING FROM BOTTOM 10 TO TOP 10
YearTeamPointsRkPrev YrRk
2015Chicago1279t6932
2014Houston130910425
2013Buffalo1319t10225
2012Denver1337t8731
2012NY Giants145210025
2011San Francisco16619928
2011Cincinnati132710224t
2010St. Louis1258t7331
2010Oakland14229526
2009no teams--------
2008Carolina13059924t
2008Minnesota1277t9924t
2008Atlanta129610323
2007Tampa Bay11810t7331
2007Cleveland12098829
2007Tennessee13339826
2006Detroit11778432
2006Chicago14319228
2006New Orleans11510t9725
2005St. Louis1177t8926
2005Arizona14919422t
2004Buffalo1178t7531
2004San Diego114108128t
2003Carolina1255t7429t
2003St. Louis16319424
2002no teams--------

—Ian Allan

4 Reader Comments:

Philip Haines

De Pere, WI
2025-03-09T19:48:27Z
I pull at least one top 5 kicker from our free agent/waiver list nearly every year (redraft league). Last year I had Boswell and Seibert, both undrafted free agents in our league. It’s reached the point where I draft just one kicker with my final pick and wait to see what develops in the first few weeks of the season…….

Richard Loppnow

Columbus, WI
2025-03-09T22:58:23Z
4th down aggressiveness is now a thing. Figuring Ben Johnson may be as aggressive as the Lions were, I'm not touching the Bears' kicker.

I do like the Seattle (defensive-minded coaches love taking the points) and Jacksonville (gotta be better next year) kickers for next season.

Drew Paterson

Ferndale, WA
2025-03-09T23:31:50Z
When you guys figure out what the trend is for kicking scorers, let us know. I've been burned too often, in the recent years, by drafting someone from a good offense, with a good QB, only to see that team concentrate on avoiding FG's and maximizing TD's/XP's, by frequently going for it on 4th down. Then, some team with a mediocre offense (like the 2024 Steelers) is content to kick FG's from all over the field and win low-scoring games. I know now not to draft a Kicker early and, as Philip notes, draft one late and then wait to pick up a 2nd one after the season starts to see how the offenses are shaping up.

Ian Allan (Fantasy Index)

Seattle, WA
2025-03-09T23:47:47Z
Richard points out fourth-down aggressiveness. That theory is supported y the numbers. 329 times last year, teams went for it on fourth downs inside the 35-yard line of opponents. That's just over 10 per team. Looking at the same stat from 10 years ago, I see 198 -- just over 6 per team.
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