I have some interest in Theo Johnson. He had a credible rookie season, looking like a guy who might develop into an above-average tight end.
Johnson, as a refresher, played his college ball at Penn State and put some great numbers at the combine, running 4.57 and jumping 39.5 inches. He’s big (6-6, 259) but had the best short shuttle time of the tight ends.
In 2023, Johnson and Tyler Warren both played tight end for the Nittany Lions, with both of them in 13 games catching 34 passes and 7 TDs.
The Giants picked him in the fourth round, then fast-tracked him into the lineup. He’s got a lot more pass-catching ability and speed than Daniel Bellinger.
Johnson started off slowly and had some issues with hands, with 5 drops versus only 29 catches. That’s not good. He also broke his foot, missing the last five games.
But there was also some production. Johnson got shut out entirely by Philadelphia, but in his last seven other games, he caught 26 passes. That’s almost 4 per week. In PPR scoring, Johnson in those games averaged 8.8 points, which was better than all but 14 tight ends last year.
With the stats in front of me, I see that there haven’t been many rookie tight ends who’ve been able to average 4 catches per game. Of the ones that have, almost all have gone on to put up good numbers are some point in their pro careers.
The Giants have new quarterbacks now, and the offense probably will be different also. But my early gut feeling is that Johnson will make sense in the last couple of rounds as a second tight end. Very realistic, I think, for him to be a top-15 tight end this year. (And maybe even better.)
In the chart below, you’re seeing the best rookie tight ends in the 32-team era. The stats (catches, yards, touchdowns) are season totals, but the PPR shows average production per game. The final column (“best”) shows the highest they ever ranked in their career, looking at future seasons. And the ranking numbers in that best column are cumulative rather than per-game totals.
Admittedly, I’m mish-mashing numbers here, trying to make Johnson look good. But my early guess is that he’ll be one of the top 25 tight ends on my board (at least).
| ROOKIE TIGHT ENDS SINCE 2002 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Best |
| 2024 | Brock Bowers, L.V. | 17 | 112 | 1194 | 5 | 15.5 | 1 |
| 2023 | Sam LaPorta, Det. | 17 | 86 | 889 | 10 | 14.1 | 1 |
| 2013 | Jordan Reed, Was. | 9 | 45 | 499 | 3 | 12.7 | 2 |
| 2002 | Jeremy Shockey, NYG | 15 | 74 | 894 | 2 | 11.7 | 3 |
| 2017 | Evan Engram, NYG | 15 | 64 | 722 | 6 | 11.6 | 2 |
| 2021 | Kyle Pitts, Atl. | 17 | 68 | 1026 | 1 | 10.4 | 6 |
| 2010 | Aaron Hernandez, N.E. | 14 | 45 | 563 | 6 | 10.1 | 3 |
| 2010 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 16 | 42 | 546 | 10 | 9.8 | 1 |
| 2021 | Pat Freiermuth, Pitt. | 16 | 60 | 497 | 7 | 9.6 | 8 |
| 2023 | Dalton Kincaid, Buff. | 16 | 73 | 673 | 2 | 9.5 | 11 |
| 2008 | John Carlson, Sea. | 16 | 55 | 627 | 5 | 9.2 | 7 |
| 2013 | Tim Wright, T.B. | 16 | 54 | 571 | 5 | 8.8 | 13 |
| 2016 | Hunter Henry, S.D. | 15 | 36 | 478 | 8 | 8.8 | 9 |
| 2024 | Theo J (cherry picked) | 7 | 26 | 294 | 1 | 8.8 | ? |
| 2022 | Greg Dulcich, Den. | 10 | 33 | 411 | 2 | 8.6 | 30 |
| 2019 | Kaden Smith, NYG | 9 | 31 | 268 | 3 | 8.4 | 35 |
| 2010 | Jermaine Gresham, Cin. | 15 | 52 | 471 | 4 | 8.3 | 10 |
| 2015 | Will Tye, NYG | 13 | 42 | 464 | 3 | 8.2 | 25 |
| 2010 | Tony Moeaki, K.C. | 15 | 47 | 556 | 3 | 8.0 | 17 |
| 2005 | Heath Miller, Pitt. | 16 | 39 | 459 | 6 | 7.6 | 4 |
| 2017 | O.J. Howard, T.B. | 14 | 26 | 432 | 6 | 7.5 | 15 |
| 2008 | Dustin Keller, NYJ | 16 | 48 | 535 | 3 | 7.5 | 10 |
| 2012 | Dwayne Allen, Ind. | 16 | 45 | 521 | 3 | 7.2 | 19 |
| 2017 | George Kittle, S.F. | 15 | 43 | 515 | 2 | 7.1 | 3 |
| 2006 | Owen Daniels, Hou. | 14 | 34 | 352 | 5 | 7.1 | 6 |
| 2018 | Chris Herndon, NYJ | 16 | 39 | 502 | 4 | 7.1 | 16 |
| 2019 | Noah Fant, Den. | 16 | 40 | 562 | 3 | 7.1 | 8 |
| 2002 | Randy McMichael, Mia. | 16 | 39 | 485 | 4 | 7.0 | 4 |
| 2009 | Brandon Pettigrew, Det. | 11 | 30 | 346 | 2 | 7.0 | 6 |
| 2003 | Dallas Clark, Ind. | 10 | 29 | 340 | 1 | 6.9 | 1 |
—Ian Allan