Jalen Milroe has been making the rounds for the past week or so, visiting teams who may be considering him with a first-round pick. I posted something about his rushing potential earlier this week. There's another, less promising element to consider.
The Alabama quarterback ran for 20 touchdowns last year; that's good. Certainly, if gets in an NFL lineup as a starter, there will be some fantasy goodness.
But Milroe will be a developmental prospect as a passer, and we'll need to hope he winds up in the right organization with the right coaching staff to bring him along. Another former Alabama quarterback, Jalen Hurts, certainly did; others who entered the league as more runners than passers, like Lamar Jackson, also came along nicely.
The concerning factoid is that Milroe threw 11 interceptions in his final season in college; just 5 fewer than he threw touchdowns. He was intercepted on 3.4% of his pass attempts a year ago. Among quarterbacks selected in the first or second round in the past dozen years, that's one of the five worst interception rates, and there have been more misses than hits with the quarterbacks who finished in that area.
Table shows final year of college numbers from the first- and second-round quarterbacks drafted in the past dozen years, sorted by interception rate. Included are Milroe and the other three quarterbacks expected to go in the first two rounds (Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, Jaxson Dart).
| QBS DRAFTED ROUNDS 1-2, FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE, 2014- | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Rd | Player | Com | Att | Pct | Yds | TD | Int | Int% |
| 2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston | 305 | 467 | 65.3 | 3907 | 25 | 18 | 3.9% |
| 2020 | 1 | Jordan Love | 293 | 473 | 61.9 | 3402 | 20 | 17 | 3.6% |
| 2023 | 2 | Will Levis | 185 | 283 | 65.4 | 2406 | 19 | 10 | 3.5% |
| 2025 | ? | Jalen Milroe | 205 | 319 | 64.3 | 2844 | 16 | 11 | 3.4% |
| 2014 | 1 | Johnny Manziel | 300 | 429 | 69.9 | 4114 | 37 | 13 | 3.0% |
| 2017 | 1 | Deshaun Watson | 388 | 579 | 67.0 | 4593 | 41 | 17 | 2.9% |
| 2023 | 1 | Anthony Richardson | 176 | 327 | 53.8 | 2549 | 17 | 9 | 2.8% |
| 2018 | 1 | Sam Darnold | 303 | 480 | 63.1 | 4143 | 26 | 13 | 2.7% |
| 2021 | 1 | Trevor Lawrence | 231 | 334 | 69.2 | 3153 | 24 | 9 | 2.7% |
| 2021 | 1 | Justin Fields | 158 | 225 | 70.2 | 2100 | 22 | 6 | 2.7% |
| 2017 | 2 | DeShone Kizer | 212 | 361 | 58.7 | 2925 | 26 | 9 | 2.5% |
| 2016 | 1 | Jared Goff | 341 | 529 | 64.5 | 4719 | 43 | 13 | 2.5% |
| 2014 | 1 | Blake Bortles | 259 | 382 | 67.8 | 3581 | 25 | 9 | 2.4% |
| 2020 | 2 | Jalen Hurts | 237 | 340 | 69.7 | 3851 | 32 | 8 | 2.4% |
| 2018 | 1 | Lamar Jackson | 254 | 430 | 59.1 | 3660 | 27 | 10 | 2.3% |
| 2019 | 1 | Daniel Jones | 237 | 392 | 60.5 | 2674 | 22 | 9 | 2.3% |
| 2018 | 1 | Josh Allen | 152 | 270 | 56.3 | 1812 | 16 | 6 | 2.2% |
| 2018 | 1 | Josh Rosen | 283 | 452 | 62.6 | 3756 | 26 | 10 | 2.2% |
| 2024 | 1 | Drake Maye | 269 | 425 | 63.3 | 3608 | 24 | 9 | 2.1% |
| 2025 | ? | Shedeur Sanders | 353 | 477 | 74.0 | 4134 | 37 | 10 | 2.1% |
| 2024 | 1 | Michael Penix | 363 | 555 | 65.4 | 4903 | 36 | 11 | 2.0% |
| 2016 | 1 | Carson Wentz | 130 | 208 | 62.5 | 1651 | 17 | 4 | 1.9% |
| 2019 | 1 | Kyler Murray | 260 | 377 | 69.0 | 4361 | 42 | 7 | 1.9% |
| 2019 | 2 | Drew Lock | 275 | 437 | 62.9 | 3498 | 28 | 8 | 1.8% |
| 2021 | 2 | Kyle Trask | 301 | 437 | 68.9 | 4283 | 43 | 8 | 1.8% |
| 2017 | 1 | Patrick Mahomes | 388 | 591 | 65.7 | 5052 | 41 | 10 | 1.7% |
| 2016 | 2 | Christian Hackenberg | 192 | 359 | 53.5 | 2525 | 16 | 6 | 1.7% |
| 2014 | 2 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 375 | 568 | 66.0 | 5050 | 53 | 9 | 1.6% |
| 2023 | 1 | C.J. Stroud | 258 | 389 | 66.3 | 3688 | 41 | 6 | 1.5% |
| 2025 | ? | Cameron Ward | 305 | 454 | 67.2 | 4313 | 39 | 7 | 1.5% |
| 2025 | ? | Jaxson Dart | 276 | 398 | 69.3 | 4279 | 29 | 6 | 1.5% |
| 2019 | 1 | Dwayne Haskins | 373 | 533 | 70.0 | 4831 | 50 | 8 | 1.5% |
| 2018 | 1 | Baker Mayfield | 285 | 404 | 70.5 | 4627 | 43 | 6 | 1.5% |
| 2022 | 1 | Kenny Pickett | 334 | 497 | 67.2 | 4319 | 42 | 7 | 1.4% |
| 2020 | 1 | Justin Herbert | 286 | 428 | 66.8 | 3471 | 32 | 6 | 1.4% |
| 2017 | 1 | Mitchell Trubisky | 304 | 447 | 68.0 | 3748 | 30 | 6 | 1.3% |
| 2023 | 1 | Bryce Young | 245 | 380 | 64.5 | 3328 | 32 | 5 | 1.3% |
| 2024 | 1 | Caleb Williams | 266 | 388 | 68.6 | 3633 | 30 | 5 | 1.3% |
| 2024 | 1 | Jayden Daniels | 236 | 327 | 72.2 | 3812 | 40 | 4 | 1.2% |
| 2014 | 2 | Derek Carr | 453 | 659 | 68.7 | 5082 | 50 | 8 | 1.2% |
| 2024 | 1 | J.J. McCarthy | 240 | 332 | 72.3 | 2991 | 22 | 4 | 1.2% |
| 2020 | 1 | Tua Tagovailoa | 180 | 252 | 71.4 | 2840 | 33 | 3 | 1.2% |
| 2020 | 1 | Joe Burrow | 402 | 527 | 76.3 | 5671 | 60 | 6 | 1.1% |
| 2021 | 1 | Mac Jones | 311 | 402 | 77.4 | 4500 | 41 | 4 | 1.0% |
| 2014 | 1 | Teddy Bridgewater | 303 | 427 | 71.0 | 3970 | 31 | 4 | 0.9% |
| 2016 | 1 | Paxton Lynch | 296 | 443 | 66.8 | 3776 | 28 | 4 | 0.9% |
| 2015 | 1 | Marcus Mariota | 304 | 445 | 68.3 | 4454 | 42 | 4 | 0.9% |
| 2021 | 1 | Zach Wilson | 247 | 336 | 73.5 | 3692 | 33 | 3 | 0.9% |
| 2024 | 1 | Bo Nix | 364 | 470 | 77.4 | 4508 | 45 | 3 | 0.6% |
| 2021 | 1 | Trey Lance | 192 | 287 | 66.9 | 2786 | 28 | 0 | 0.0% |
As the table shows, interception rate isn't everything. Three of the best five passers above in this area are Trey Lance, Zach Wilson and Paxton Lynch. But some of the worst, like Jameis Winston and Will Levis, continued to struggle in that regard in the pros.
As noted in the earlier factoid, I'm a little leery of Milroe. He didn't stand out as being a sure thing at Alabama, and that was a situation where he had loads of talent around him. I'm hoping he lands in a situation like Hurts did, with a good offensive line and coaching staff around him who can develop him and bring him along slowly. Put him in the lineup too soon, and I think it could be ugly at times.
--Andy Richardson