So Tetairoa McMillan was drafted by the Carolina Panthers, and that's a downer. The Panthers have had one of the league's worst passing games for years. What are the chances he'll be able to put up viable numbers?
It's the second year in a row Carolina has used a first-round pick on a wide receiver, which doesn't seem to be a great sign for the guy they selected a year ago, Xavier Legette. But today I'm wondering what the history is for wide receivers selected to teams with lousy passing games. Do those games bring them down, or they can rise above it?
I looked at first-round wide receivers drafted by teams coming off seasons where they had bottom-1o passing games. It happens a decent amount, which makes sense -- teams with bad passing games do often need talent at wide receiver.
In the last 10 years there have been 17 other wide receivers who, like McMillan, were drafted in the first round by teams who had bottom-10 passing games. Two this year (McMillan and Travis Hunter, going to a Jacksonville team that didn't have Trevor Lawrence for a chunk of the season). There were actually four instances of it last year (including Legette).
Three of those 17 wide receivers put up top 10 numbers as rookies in PPR leagues. Not a large percentage, but encouraging that it does happen. Two of the three were top-10 picks like Hunter and McMillan: Ja'Marr Chase, and Malik Nabers last season.
Four others at least put up t0p-30 numbers. That includes another 2024 rookie, Marvin Harrison. Two others finished in the top 40.
The guys who did nothing as rookies and never amounted to anything, Treadwell and Toney, well, probably can't blame the passing games for that.
Table shows rookie numbers from the first-round wideouts joining bottom-10 passing games, sorted by finish in PPR leagues that year (last column shows the team passing rank the previous season).
| 1ST-ROUND WIDEOUTS, BOTTOM-10 PASSING OFFENSES (2015-) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | No | Rec | TD | Rk | TmRk | |
| 2021 | 5 | Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | 81 | 1455 | 13 | 5 | 25 | |
| 2020 | 22 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 88 | 1400 | 7 | 6 | 24 | |
| 2024 | 6 | Malik Nabers, NYG | 109 | 1204 | 7 | 6 | 31 | |
| 2015 | 4 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 72 | 1070 | 6 | 21 | 26 | |
| 2022 | 11 | Chris Olave, N.O. | 72 | 1042 | 4 | 24 | 32 | |
| 2024 | 4 | Marvin Harrison, Ari. | 62 | 885 | 8 | 30 | 26 | |
| 2021 | 10 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 64 | 916 | 5 | 30 | 26 | |
| 2023 | 22 | Zay Flowers, Balt. | 77 | 858 | 6 | 31 | 30 | |
| 2018 | 24 | DJ Moore, Car. | 55 | 788 | 2 | 36 | 28 | |
| 2020 | 15 | Jerry Jeudy, Den. | 52 | 856 | 3 | 45 | 28 | |
| 2019 | 25 | Marquise Brown, Balt. | 46 | 584 | 7 | 46 | 23 | |
| 2024 | 9 | Rome Odunze, Chi. | 54 | 734 | 3 | 49 | 27 | |
| 2024 | 32 | Xavier Legette, Car. | 49 | 497 | 4 | 61 | 32 | |
| 2021 | 27 | Rashod Bateman, Balt. | 46 | 515 | 1 | 70 | 32 | |
| 2017 | 5 | Corey Davis, Ten. | 34 | 375 | 0 | 85 | 25 | |
| 2021 | 20 | Kadarius Toney, NYG | 39 | 420 | 0 | 89 | 29 | |
| 2016 | 23 | Laquon Treadwell, Min. | 1 | 15 | 0 | 188 | 31 | |
| 2025 | 2 | Travis Hunter, Jac. | ? | ? | ? | ? | 24 | |
| 2025 | 6 | Tetairoa McMillan, Car. | ? | ? | ? | ? | 31 | |
I would rather McMillan had gone elsewhere, in part because I drafted Legette in dynasty last year. The odds of both guys putting up good numbers in Carolina (which still has Adam Thielen) seem remote.
But at least there are some good examples of guys going to lousy passing games and elevating them in their first seasons. Maybe McMillan will be the next.
--Andy Richardson