I was surprised how early some of the second-round wide receivers went in our Mock Draft. Tre Harris was picked before Darnell Mooney and Jayden Reed, and Luther Burden not long after. Those picks surprised me.
Mooney is a good player, I think. He was leading Atlanta in receiving yards entering mid-December last year. He’s their best deep threat, and I think he might be enhanced by the quarterback switch (with Michael Penix having more ability to drive the ball deep). And with Reed, I like him a little more than all of the other Green Bay receivers.
So weird to me, that Tre Harris (pictured) would go before both of them.
At the same time, I will concede that second-round receivers hit from time to time. There have been 12 who’ve posted top-40 numbers in the last 10 years. Nine of those guys finished in the top 30. So strictly off the big-picture odds, you might guess you would hit on something if you drafted Harris, Burden and Jayden Higgins.
But I don’t see it. With Burden, he’s going in with the expectation/hope of being Chicago’s third receiver. I think we can agree DJ Moore and Rome Odunze slot well ahead of Burden.
And I think the same is true with Tre Harris, albeit to a lesser degree. Ladd McConkey is definitely the top guy there. I think Quentin Johnston has done enough that he’s still going to be their 2nd guy. So Harris is a 3 to me; I will concede that some believe Harris will be the 2nd-best there, or are more open to him being 2nd or 3rd.
Expectations change the discussion some. If we instead look at second-round receivers who were generally believed to be the 3rd-best receivers on their own team, only two (out of 17) have finished with top-40 numbers – Chase Claypool and Tee Higgins.
Only three second-round receivers in the last 10 years have been able to rise up to the No. 1 spot on their team when going in with modest expectations – Higgins, A.J. Brown and Michael Thomas. The Bengals, when Higgins was joining that team, had A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd. I think most were picking Corey Davis (a top-5 pick) before Brown, and most were picking Brandin Cooks before Michael Thomas.
The chart below shows the second-round receivers from the last 10 years. The final two columns show where they ranked production-wise among wide receivers on their own team – the actual rank first, and the expected rank prior to the season in the final column.
I don’t expect to be choosing any of those second-round wide receivers.
The final column in this chart was put together subjectively. I don’t have a perfect memory on the players and situations. I had the stats in front of me and tried to remember the situation, but I didn’t want to spend all day on it. (Ja’Lynn Polk, as an example; I can’t remember if he was the first Patriots receiver drafted last August.)
| SECOND-ROUND RECEIVERS (last 10 yrs) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk | Tm | Exp |
| 2015 | Devin Funchess, Car. | 31 | 473 | 5 | 108.3 | 65 | 2 | 1-2 |
| 2015 | Devin Smith, NYJ | 9 | 115 | 1 | 26.5 | 142 | 6 | 3 |
| 2015 | Dorial Green-Beckham, Ten. | 32 | 549 | 4 | 112.9 | 59 | 1 | 1 |
| 2016 | Tyler Boyd, Cin. | 54 | 603 | 1 | 126.1 | 63 | 3 | 2-3 |
| 2016 | • Michael Thomas, N.O. | 92 | 1137 | 9 | 259.7 | 7 | 1 | 2 |
| 2016 | Sterling Shepard, NYG | 65 | 683 | 8 | 184.4 | 36 | 2 | 2 |
| 2017 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 58 | 917 | 8 | 197.7 | 20 | 2 | 2-3 |
| 2017 | Curtis Samuel, Car. | 15 | 115 | 0 | 32.9 | 126 | 4 | 2 |
| 2017 | Zay Jones, Buff. | 27 | 316 | 2 | 70.6 | 87 | 1 | 1 |
| 2018 | Anthony Miller, Chi. | 33 | 423 | 7 | 120.3 | 60 | 3 | 2-3 |
| 2018 | Dante Pettis, S.F. | 27 | 467 | 5 | 103.5 | 71 | 2 | 1-2 |
| 2018 | James Washington, Pitt. | 16 | 217 | 1 | 43.7 | 125 | 4 | 3 |
| 2018 | DJ Chark, Jac. | 14 | 174 | 0 | 31.4 | 141 | 4 | 3 |
| 2018 | Courtland Sutton, Den. | 42 | 704 | 4 | 136.3 | 50 | 2 | 2 |
| 2018 | Christian Kirk, Ari. | 43 | 590 | 3 | 123.5 | 58 | 2 | 2 |
| 2019 | J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Phil. | 10 | 169 | 1 | 32.9 | 136 | 5 | 3-4 |
| 2019 | Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 57 | 802 | 6 | 191.1 | 31 | 1 | 1-2 |
| 2019 | Mecole Hardman, K.C. | 26 | 538 | 7 | 123.5 | 59 | 3 | 3 |
| 2019 | Andy Isabella, Ari. | 9 | 189 | 1 | 35.4 | 131 | 5 | 3 |
| 2019 | • A.J. Brown, Ten. | 52 | 1051 | 9 | 217.1 | 22 | 1 | 2 |
| 2019 | DK Metcalf, Sea. | 58 | 900 | 7 | 193.1 | 29 | 2 | 2 |
| 2019 | Parris Campbell, Ind. | 18 | 127 | 1 | 40.1 | 121 | 5 | 2 |
| 2020 | Laviska Shenault, Jac. | 58 | 600 | 5 | 157.1 | 46 | 1 | 1-2 |
| 2020 | Michael Pittman, Ind. | 40 | 503 | 1 | 98.9 | 80 | 3 | 1-2 |
| 2020 | •• Chase Claypool, Pitt. | 62 | 873 | 11 | 216.9 | 23 | 3 | 3 |
| 2020 | • Tee Higgins, Cin. | 67 | 908 | 6 | 196.6 | 28 | 1 | 3 |
| 2020 | Denzel Mims, NYJ | 23 | 357 | 0 | 60.7 | 107 | 4 | 3 |
| 2020 | Van Jefferson, LAR | 19 | 220 | 1 | 46.9 | 122 | 4 | 3 |
| 2020 | KJ Hamler, Den. | 30 | 381 | 3 | 90.1 | 88 | 3 | 2 |
| 2021 | Terrace Marshall, Car. | 17 | 138 | 0 | 32.8 | 139 | 4 | 2-3 |
| 2021 | Rondale Moore, Ari. | 54 | 435 | 1 | 111.1 | 65 | 4 | 3 |
| 2021 | Dee Eskridge, Sea. | 10 | 64 | 1 | 28.3 | 146 | 4 | 3 |
| 2021 | Tutu Atwell, LAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- | 6 | 3 |
| 2021 | Elijah Moore, NYJ | 43 | 538 | 6 | 138.2 | 50 | 1 | 1 |
| 2022 | Alec Pierce, Ind. | 41 | 593 | 2 | 112.3 | 64 | 3 | 2-3 |
| 2022 | Tyquan Thornton, N.E. | 22 | 247 | 3 | 66.3 | 98 | 5 | 1-2 |
| 2022 | Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG | 23 | 227 | 1 | 51.6 | 116 | 3 | 1-2 |
| 2022 | George Pickens, Pitt. | 52 | 801 | 5 | 166.5 | 40 | 2 | 2 |
| 2022 | Christian Watson, G.B. | 41 | 611 | 9 | 164.1 | 42 | 2 | 1 |
| 2022 | Skyy Moore, K.C. | 22 | 250 | 0 | 49.4 | 118 | 5 | 1 |
| 2023 | Jayden Reed, G.B. | 64 | 793 | 10 | 217.2 | 25 | 1 | 1-2 |
| 2023 | Rashee Rice, K.C. | 79 | 938 | 7 | 214.5 | 27 | 1 | 1-2 |
| 2023 | Marvin Mims, Den. | 22 | 377 | 2 | 74.7 | 86 | 3 | 3 |
| 2023 | Jonathan Mingo, Car. | 43 | 418 | 0 | 84.8 | 81 | 3 | 2 |
| 2024 | Adonai Mitchell, Ind. | 23 | 312 | 0 | 56.0 | 110 | 4 | 3-4 |
| 2024 | Ja'Lynn Polk, N.E. | 12 | 87 | 2 | 32.7 | 129 | 4 | 1-2 |
| 2024 | Keon Coleman, Buff. | 29 | 556 | 4 | 111.5 | 71 | 2 | 2 |
| 2024 | Ladd McConkey, LAC | 82 | 1149 | 7 | 240.9 | 14 | 1 | 1 |
| 2025 | Jayden Higgins, Hou. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | 2-3 |
| 2025 | Tre Harris, LAC | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | 2-3 |
| 2025 | Luther Burden, Chi. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | 3 |
—Ian Allan