Some discussion and or speculation from media covering the Giants about when Jaxson Dart might see the field. One beat writer thinks Week 10 is the earliest the first-rounder might see the field. I'm not sure it will happen that quickly.
Dart was selected 25th overall, indicating that there's doubt about his credentials as a future franchise quarterback. Plus the Giants have a couple of veteran options in Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston. I personally believe that not only should Dart sit most or all of his rookie season, but he probably will.
With the should, we have a couple of recent examples of guys who sat as rookies and it seemed to work out for them. Patrick Mahomes, most notably, but Carson Palmer, Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers all rode the bench to start their careers. Sometimes sitting and watching can benefit a player, or seem to.
But those cases are very much the exception. There have been 76 quarterbacks drafted with first-round picks since 2000. Setting aside guys who got hurt, fewer than 20 percent of those first-rounders actually sat for most of their rookie seasons. About 10 actually rode the bench healthy for the entire year.
Table shows rookie numbers from all the first-round quarterbacks in the last 25 years who attempted fewer than 200 passes in those first seasons, sorted by attempts. Guys who went on to be good or great pros, I've listed in bold. Guys the jury is still out on are in italics.
| FIRST-ROUND QBS ATTEMPTING UNDER 200 PASSES AS ROOKIES, 2000- | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Com | Att | Pct | Yds | TD |
| 2004 | 1 | Eli Manning, NYG | 95 | 197 | 48.2 | 1043 | 6 |
| 2018 | 32 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 99 | 170 | 58.2 | 1201 | 6 |
| 2005 | 1 | Alex Smith, S.F. | 84 | 165 | 50.9 | 875 | 1 |
| 2006 | 11 | Jay Cutler, Den. | 81 | 137 | 59.1 | 1001 | 9 |
| 2001 | 1 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 50 | 113 | 44.2 | 785 | 2 |
| 2024 | 8 | Michael Penix, Atl. | 61 | 105 | 58.1 | 775 | 3 |
| 2023 | 4 | Anthony Richardson, Ind. | 50 | 84 | 59.5 | 577 | 3 |
| 2016 | 26 | Paxton Lynch, Den. | 49 | 83 | 59.0 | 497 | 2 |
| 2010 | 25 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 41 | 82 | 50.0 | 654 | 5 |
| 2003 | 22 | Rex Grossman, Chi. | 38 | 72 | 52.8 | 437 | 2 |
| 2021 | 3 | Trey Lance, S.F. | 41 | 71 | 57.7 | 603 | 5 |
| 2007 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell, Oak. | 36 | 66 | 54.5 | 373 | 2 |
| 2011 | 8 | Jake Locker, Tenn. | 34 | 66 | 51.5 | 542 | 4 |
| 2017 | 10 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 22 | 35 | 62.9 | 284 | 0 |
| 2014 | 22 | Johnny Manziel, Clev. | 18 | 35 | 51.4 | 175 | 0 |
| 2005 | 24 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 9 | 16 | 56.3 | 65 | 0 |
| 2004 | 4 | Philip Rivers, NYG | 5 | 8 | 62.5 | 33 | 1 |
| 2007 | 22 | Brady Quinn, Clev. | 3 | 8 | 37.5 | 45 | 0 |
| 2004 | 22 | J.P. Losman, Buff. | 3 | 5 | 60.0 | 32 | 0 |
| 2003 | 1 | Carson Palmer, Cin. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2005 | 25 | Jason Campbell, Wash. | 0 | 0 | .0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020 | 26 | Jordan Love, G.B. | 0 | 0 | .0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 10 | J.J. McCarthy, Minn. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 1 | Cameron Ward, Ten. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2025 | 25 | Jaxson Dart, NYG | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
By my count, that's 23 first-round quarterbacks since 2000 who attempted fewer than 200 passes as rookies. Jury still out on three of them. Ten that had either some or a lot of NFL success. And 10 that definitely never amounted to anything.
If Dart does wind up sitting most or all of his rookie year, we've got about as many examples of guys who went on to be good pros as guys who didn't. If he makes a bunch of late-season starts or doesn't, seems like he could still go either way.
I know the Giants' coaches are on the hot seat, so probably they'll be getting Dart into the lineup eventually. But I do think it will be very late in the year, sort of like Michael Penix a year ago. Most likely, he sits for almost all of his rookie season, I think, and it will be 2026 before we have much idea how he'll work out.
--Andy Richardson