C.J. Stroud will be an interesting case in drafts this summer. In 2023 he was one of the more impressive rookie quarterbacks we've seen in a long time. Last year? Not so much.
In that rookie season, he finished 13th among quarterbacks. Last year he slipped to 18th at the position, and it's a number that looks even worse if you compare his first-half numbers to what he did in the second half of the season.
In Stroud's final eight games, he averaged 15.6 fantasy points per week (1 point for every 20 passing and 10 rushing yards, 4-point TD passes). That was a decline of 15 percent from what he did the first half of the season, one of the biggest drops among all quarterbacks to start at least 5 games each half of the year. Russell Wilson, Geno Smith (with new teams now) and Jordan Love (with the Packers moving to more of a run-dominated approach) were the only quarterbacks to experience larger first-half to second-half declines.
| QUARTERBACKS, 2ND HALF VERSUS 1ST HALF, 2024 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | Pass | YPG | TD | Run | TD | FPG | Imp? |
| Bryce Young, Car. | 8 | 1709 | 214 | 12 | 208 | 5 | 23.0 | 73% |
| Jared Goff, Det. | 9 | 2789 | 310 | 23 | 40 | 0 | 26.4 | 41% |
| Justin Herbert, LAC | 9 | 2145 | 238 | 13 | 221 | 2 | 22.2 | 32% |
| Bo Nix, Den. | 8 | 2022 | 253 | 21 | 135 | 0 | 24.8 | 29% |
| Joe Burrow, Cin. | 8 | 2674 | 334 | 23 | 84 | 1 | 30.0 | 29% |
| Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 7 | 1919 | 274 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 22.4 | 25% |
| Will Levis, Ten. | 7 | 1392 | 199 | 8 | 77 | 0 | 15.9 | 21% |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | 8 | 1730 | 216 | 11 | 320 | 9 | 27.3 | 19% |
| Kyler Murray, Ari. | 8 | 2059 | 257 | 10 | 222 | 3 | 23.1 | 15% |
| Jayden Daniels, Was. | 8 | 1623 | 203 | 16 | 432 | 2 | 25.5 | 12% |
| Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 8 | 1986 | 248 | 15 | 159 | 1 | 22.7 | 12% |
| Sam Darnold, Min. | 9 | 2419 | 269 | 18 | 92 | 1 | 23.1 | 6% |
| Matthew Stafford, LAR | 8 | 1793 | 224 | 11 | 48 | 0 | 17.3 | 4% |
| Caleb Williams, Chi. | 9 | 1876 | 208 | 11 | 268 | 0 | 18.5 | 2% |
| Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 8 | 1793 | 224 | 21 | 410 | 2 | 28.6 | -2% |
| Aaron Rodgers, NYJ | 8 | 1790 | 224 | 13 | 64 | 0 | 18.7 | -2% |
| Brock Purdy, S.F. | 7 | 1763 | 252 | 10 | 113 | 2 | 21.6 | -6% |
| Baker Mayfield, T.B. | 8 | 2111 | 264 | 18 | 189 | 1 | 25.3 | -7% |
| Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 7 | 1129 | 161 | 8 | 308 | 6 | 22.2 | -15% |
| C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 8 | 1588 | 199 | 9 | 90 | 0 | 15.6 | -15% |
| Russell Wilson, Pitt. | 9 | 1940 | 216 | 13 | 145 | 1 | 18.8 | -18% |
| Geno Smith, Sea. | 8 | 1760 | 220 | 10 | 79 | 1 | 17.7 | -19% |
| Jordan Love, G.B. | 8 | 1569 | 196 | 10 | 55 | 1 | 16.5 | -27% |
Stroud's decline wasn't all on him. Stefon Diggs tore his ACL, costing him most of the second half of the season, and Tank Dell also wrecked his knee. The offensive line wasn't playing as well, part of why the team overhauled that in the offseason. And while Diggs is gone and Dell probably won't play at all this year, the team has added a lot of new receivers: Christian Kirk, and Iowa State wideouts Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel in the second and third rounds. No one can say they're not trying.
One difference between his rookie season and last year was rushing production. He averaged just 11-14 yards each year, but scored 3 TDs on the ground as a rookie and none last year. Maybe looking to stay healthy; hopefully he can do that while also running in a touchdown or two along the way.
Last week we got the report that Stroud wasn't throwing at OTAs. This week we found out why: "general soreness," according to DeMeco Ryans, due to a lingering muscle injury in his throwing shoulder. “We’re taking extra precaution with him, but he’ll be good to go," says Ryans. "No concerns on my end there.”
I will take Ryans at his word (I don't have a choice), but it's something we also need to keep in mind. Soreness in early June, when presumably he's done very little over the offseason aside from maybe lifting weights or checking out different streaming services, isn't something you want to hear. But better now, with training camp more than six weeks away, than in August.
The really early ADP has Stroud being selected around 17th at the quarterback position. He went 20th in the Experts Draft for our magazine. So he's being drafted as a backup, not a guy you want to rely on each week.
I think assuming the arm is OK, there's a chance he'll be more like a top-15 quarterback. The running game probably won't be as good, Joe Mixon is a year older. And I like the moves in the receiving corps: Kirk is a capable receiver, and the Iowa State duo is talented. If just one of those guys hits the ground running, the wide receivers should be a strength.
In general, Stroud is a guy I think should be better than he was the second half of last year. I won't draft him as a starter, but as a No. 2 with upside to be a little better, I'm in.
--Andy Richardson