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Factoid

Running into the old 'sophomore slump'

QBs tend to decline in their second season

I’m not opposed to pulling the trigger on Jayden Daniels or Bo Nix. I like these guys. But at the same time, history tells us that second-year quarterbacks are far more likely to decline rather than improve.

That seems unlikely, given that they’ve had a chance to be around for a year. In theory, they should have a better command of their team’s offense and the league in general. But I guess that’s perhaps outweighed by defenses also having had a chance to study their tendencies – what coverages work and don’t work against them.

For whatever reason, when you look at the numbers, I see more getting worse than getting better a lot more.

Here are the last 14 rookie quarterbacks who’ve averaged top-15 per-game numbers in their first season …

ROOKIES AVERAGING TOP-15 NUMBERS
YearPlayerStPassTDPRunTDRPts/GRk
2006Matt Leinart, Ariz.11226.61.005.1.1816.914
2006Vince Young, Ten.13158.9.8540.6.5418.89
2009Matthew Stafford, Det.10226.71.3010.8.2019.014
2011Cam Newton, Car.16253.21.3144.1.8827.84
2012Andrew Luck, Ind.16273.41.4415.9.3122.910
2012Robert Griffin, Was.15213.31.3354.3.4724.25
2012Russell Wilson, Sea.16194.91.6330.6.2520.812
2018Baker Mayfield, Clev.13271.12.0810.2.0023.011
2018Josh Allen, Buff.11181.8.9155.0.7322.813
2019Daniel Jones, NYG12250.82.0022.8.1724.28
2019Kyler Murray, Ariz.16232.61.2534.0.2521.913
2020Joe Burrow, Cin.10268.81.3014.2.3021.915
2020Justin Herbert, LAC15289.12.0715.6.3326.57
2023C.J. Stroud, Hou.15273.91.5311.1.2022.37
2024Jayden Daniels, Was.17209.91.4752.4.3524.16
2024Bo Nix, Den.17222.11.7125.3.2922.210

If we take those same guys and look at the next season, I see 11 who got worse, and only three who got better (tagged with dots). (Matthew Stafford looked like he was going to be better, but he got hurt after only three starts.)

ROOKIES AVERAGING TOP-15 NUMBERS (the next year)
YearPlayerStPassTDPRunTDRPts/GRk
2007Vince Young, Ten.15169.7.6026.3.2014.722
2007Matt Leinart, Ariz.5129.4.408.4.008.9--
2010Matthew Stafford, Det.3178.32.003.7.3320.0--
2012Cam Newton, Car.16241.81.1946.3.5024.54
2013Andrew Luck, Ind.16238.91.4423.6.2522.19
2013Robert Griffin, Was.13246.41.2337.6.0021.311
2013Russell Wilson, Sea.16209.81.6333.7.0620.714
2019Josh Allen, Buff.16193.11.2531.9.5621.614
2019Baker Mayfield, Cle.16239.21.388.8.1919.625
2020• Kyler Murray, Ariz.16248.21.6351.2.6928.23
2020Daniel Jones, NYG14210.2.7930.2.0717.230
2021• Justin Herbert, LAC17294.92.2417.8.1826.62
2021• Joe Burrow, Cin.16288.22.137.4.1324.48
2024C.J. Stroud, Hou.17219.21.1813.7.0017.027
2025Jayden Daniels, Was.???????
2025Bo Nix, Den.???????

These are just big-picture numbers, of course. More interesting to look at, I think, than to act on. I consider Daniels to be a top-tier guy – up there with the Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. And Nix put up top-5 numbers in the second half of last season; I think he’s going to be a top-10 quarterback.

—Ian Allan

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