I’m not opposed to pulling the trigger on Jayden Daniels or Bo Nix. I like these guys. But at the same time, history tells us that second-year quarterbacks are far more likely to decline rather than improve.
That seems unlikely, given that they’ve had a chance to be around for a year. In theory, they should have a better command of their team’s offense and the league in general. But I guess that’s perhaps outweighed by defenses also having had a chance to study their tendencies – what coverages work and don’t work against them.
For whatever reason, when you look at the numbers, I see more getting worse than getting better a lot more.
Here are the last 14 rookie quarterbacks who’ve averaged top-15 per-game numbers in their first season …
ROOKIES AVERAGING TOP-15 NUMBERS | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | St | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Pts/G | Rk |
2006 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. | 11 | 226.6 | 1.00 | 5.1 | .18 | 16.9 | 14 |
2006 | Vince Young, Ten. | 13 | 158.9 | .85 | 40.6 | .54 | 18.8 | 9 |
2009 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 10 | 226.7 | 1.30 | 10.8 | .20 | 19.0 | 14 |
2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 253.2 | 1.31 | 44.1 | .88 | 27.8 | 4 |
2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 273.4 | 1.44 | 15.9 | .31 | 22.9 | 10 |
2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 15 | 213.3 | 1.33 | 54.3 | .47 | 24.2 | 5 |
2012 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 194.9 | 1.63 | 30.6 | .25 | 20.8 | 12 |
2018 | Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 13 | 271.1 | 2.08 | 10.2 | .00 | 23.0 | 11 |
2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 11 | 181.8 | .91 | 55.0 | .73 | 22.8 | 13 |
2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 12 | 250.8 | 2.00 | 22.8 | .17 | 24.2 | 8 |
2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 232.6 | 1.25 | 34.0 | .25 | 21.9 | 13 |
2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 10 | 268.8 | 1.30 | 14.2 | .30 | 21.9 | 15 |
2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 15 | 289.1 | 2.07 | 15.6 | .33 | 26.5 | 7 |
2023 | C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 15 | 273.9 | 1.53 | 11.1 | .20 | 22.3 | 7 |
2024 | Jayden Daniels, Was. | 17 | 209.9 | 1.47 | 52.4 | .35 | 24.1 | 6 |
2024 | Bo Nix, Den. | 17 | 222.1 | 1.71 | 25.3 | .29 | 22.2 | 10 |
If we take those same guys and look at the next season, I see 11 who got worse, and only three who got better (tagged with dots). (Matthew Stafford looked like he was going to be better, but he got hurt after only three starts.)
ROOKIES AVERAGING TOP-15 NUMBERS (the next year) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | St | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Pts/G | Rk |
2007 | Vince Young, Ten. | 15 | 169.7 | .60 | 26.3 | .20 | 14.7 | 22 |
2007 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. | 5 | 129.4 | .40 | 8.4 | .00 | 8.9 | -- |
2010 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 3 | 178.3 | 2.00 | 3.7 | .33 | 20.0 | -- |
2012 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 241.8 | 1.19 | 46.3 | .50 | 24.5 | 4 |
2013 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 238.9 | 1.44 | 23.6 | .25 | 22.1 | 9 |
2013 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 13 | 246.4 | 1.23 | 37.6 | .00 | 21.3 | 11 |
2013 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 209.8 | 1.63 | 33.7 | .06 | 20.7 | 14 |
2019 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 16 | 193.1 | 1.25 | 31.9 | .56 | 21.6 | 14 |
2019 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 16 | 239.2 | 1.38 | 8.8 | .19 | 19.6 | 25 |
2020 | • Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 248.2 | 1.63 | 51.2 | .69 | 28.2 | 3 |
2020 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 14 | 210.2 | .79 | 30.2 | .07 | 17.2 | 30 |
2021 | • Justin Herbert, LAC | 17 | 294.9 | 2.24 | 17.8 | .18 | 26.6 | 2 |
2021 | • Joe Burrow, Cin. | 16 | 288.2 | 2.13 | 7.4 | .13 | 24.4 | 8 |
2024 | C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 17 | 219.2 | 1.18 | 13.7 | .00 | 17.0 | 27 |
2025 | Jayden Daniels, Was. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2025 | Bo Nix, Den. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
These are just big-picture numbers, of course. More interesting to look at, I think, than to act on. I consider Daniels to be a top-tier guy – up there with the Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. And Nix put up top-5 numbers in the second half of last season; I think he’s going to be a top-10 quarterback.
—Ian Allan