The Broncos signed J.K. Dobbins yesterday, a development with plenty of ramifications for the Denver backfield. It hurts the players already there, for sure. But it's not all bad.
First and foremost, signing a capable -- arguably, highly capable -- veteran starter is a negative for the incumbents, second-rounder RJ Harvey -- who we talked up a lot in the magazine -- and last year's fifth-rounder Audric Estime. (Is it OK if I don't talk much about Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie? Those guys are battling for roster spots and unlikely to be factors. McLaughlin is a 5-foot-7 and 187-pound passing-downs option who somehow averaged just 3.2 yards per catch last year. Badie has 12 carries in three seasons.)
Mostly, the Dobbins addition is a blow to Estime. He always had the "being really slow" thing working against him, running a 4.71 at the combine. There were linemen and even a couple of quarterbacks who ran faster times than that last year. He averaged 2.7-2.8 yards per attempt in his last two games a year ago and was a healthy scratch for the playoff game at Buffalo. If the Harvey pick wasn't evidence enough that they weren't counting on Estime taking a second-year leap, the Dobbins signing confirms it. I'm hanging onto him in dynasty, today, but we'll see about two months from now.
Dobbins' agent reports his deal as being 1 year and $5.25 million, but those of us who aren't in the business of promoting clients can see it's actually worth $2 million, with a bunch of incentives and per-game bonuses that will require he stay healthy to earn. Dobbins has missed at least 4 games every year since 2020, so I'm comfortable betting the under on that $5.25M. But seems like he'll be the main ballcarrier, and he's generally been effective in that role. His career yards per attempt is 5.2, and twice he's rushed for 800-900 yards and scored 9 touchdowns. He's a former second-round pick; the talent is there, if he stays healthy.
But Dobbins has never been a big factor as a receiver. For his career, he's at 1.6 receptions per game and 5.6 yards per catch. A better option than Gus Edwards at his two previous stops, which isn't saying much. That should be Harvey's job in the offense, after Payton gushed about his potential in that regard post-draft, and it's a huge part of Payton's offense (as we've discussed here a couple of times).
Even assuming Dobbins stays healthy, which is not a given, I think there's a really good chance that both running backs are viable in fantasy leagues. Because that's also long been a staple of the Payton offense.
Payton's been a head coach in the league for 18 seasons (16 in New Orleans, 2 in Denver). In those 18 years, his offenses have had 17 top-20 fantasy running backs (PPR scoring) and seven more at least rank in the top 30. Seven times he's had a pair of top-30 backs. Perhaps Denver's offense won't quite hit the heights of New Orleans in Drew Brees' prime, but odds seem pretty good that both Dobbins and Harvey will be viable starters in fantasy leagues.
Table shows the top 2 running backs from Payton's offenses over the years. Top 20 guys in bold, top 30 in italics.
| SEAN PAYTON'S TOP 2 RUNNING BACKS, 2006-2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Run | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 2006 | Reggie Bush | 155 | 565 | 88 | 742 | 9 | 9 |
| 2006 | Deuce McAllister | 244 | 1057 | 30 | 198 | 11 | 16 |
| 2007 | Reggie Bush | 157 | 581 | 73 | 417 | 6 | 12 |
| 2007 | Aaron Stecker | 115 | 448 | 36 | 211 | 5 | 36 |
| 2008 | Pierre Thomas | 129 | 625 | 31 | 284 | 12 | 19 |
| 2008 | Reggie Bush | 106 | 404 | 52 | 440 | 9 | 22 |
| 2009 | Pierre Thomas | 147 | 793 | 39 | 302 | 8 | 19 |
| 2009 | Reggie Bush | 70 | 390 | 47 | 335 | 8 | 29 |
| 2010 | Chris Ivory | 137 | 716 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 47 |
| 2010 | Pierre Thomas | 83 | 269 | 29 | 201 | 2 | 54 |
| 2011 | Darren Sproles | 87 | 603 | 86 | 710 | 10 | 5 |
| 2011 | Pierre Thomas | 110 | 562 | 50 | 425 | 6 | 21 |
| 2012 | Darren Sproles | 48 | 244 | 75 | 667 | 8 | 13 |
| 2012 | Pierre Thomas | 105 | 473 | 39 | 354 | 2 | 32 |
| 2013 | Pierre Thomas | 147 | 549 | 77 | 513 | 5 | 16 |
| 2013 | Darren Sproles | 53 | 220 | 71 | 604 | 4 | 23 |
| 2014 | Mark Ingram | 226 | 964 | 29 | 145 | 9 | 15 |
| 2014 | Pierre Thomas | 45 | 222 | 45 | 378 | 3 | 35 |
| 2015 | Mark Ingram | 166 | 769 | 50 | 405 | 6 | 12 |
| 2015 | Tim Hightower | 96 | 375 | 12 | 129 | 4 | 56 |
| 2016 | Mark Ingram | 205 | 1043 | 46 | 319 | 10 | 8 |
| 2016 | Tim Hightower | 133 | 548 | 22 | 200 | 5 | 39 |
| 2017 | Alvin Kamara | 120 | 728 | 81 | 826 | 14 | 3 |
| 2017 | Mark Ingram | 230 | 1124 | 58 | 416 | 12 | 6 |
| 2018 | Alvin Kamara | 194 | 883 | 81 | 709 | 18 | 4 |
| 2018 | Mark Ingram | 138 | 645 | 21 | 170 | 7 | 32 |
| 2019 | Alvin Kamara | 171 | 797 | 81 | 533 | 6 | 9 |
| 2019 | Latavius Murray | 146 | 637 | 34 | 235 | 6 | 29 |
| 2020 | Alvin Kamara | 187 | 932 | 83 | 756 | 21 | 1 |
| 2020 | Latavius Murray | 146 | 656 | 23 | 176 | 5 | 34 |
| 2021 | Alvin Kamara | 240 | 898 | 47 | 439 | 9 | 9 |
| 2021 | Mark Ingram | 160 | 554 | 27 | 162 | 2 | 49 |
| 2023 | Javonte Williams | 217 | 774 | 47 | 228 | 5 | 29 |
| 2023 | Samaje Perine | 53 | 238 | 50 | 455 | 1 | 40 |
| 2024 | Javonte Williams | 139 | 513 | 52 | 346 | 4 | 30 |
| 2024 | Jaleel McLaughlin | 113 | 496 | 24 | 76 | 3 | 46 |
I'm not going to sugarcoat it. Dobbins joining Denver is a blow to the sleeper potential of Harvey. When we update things in July, the rookie will slide some in the rankings. Dobbins will start and probably get more carries.
But Harvey should be a bigger part of the passing game, and that's been critical to the value over the years of most of these backs -- Bush, Thomas, Sproles, Kamara et al. And there's the additional plus that Harvey will now be coming a lot cheaper in drafts (as well he should), making him easier to select, and more rewarding if Dobbins does battle injuries, as he generally has.
I suspect I'll still be drafting Harvey, and letting others gamble on Dobbins staying healthy.
--Andy Richardson