Factoid

June 17, 2025

Leap for Caleb?

Hit rate low for second-year quarterbacks?

Who’s in on Caleb Williams? There’s nothing wrong with his pass catchers, and the Bears have pumped a lot of money into their offensive line. They’ve also hired a more offense-oriented coach.

In part because of Ben Johnson’s contributions, Detroit’s offense the last three years have scored 52, 57 and 68 touchdowns. That’s 177 touchdowns in 51 games. The Bears in the same timeframe have scored 37, 35 and 33 touchdowns (72 fewer touchdowns in the last three years).

Chicago’s offense, I’m thinking, easily could score about a dozen more touchdowns this year.

If it plays out that way, it will be with Caleb Williams taking a solid step forward. He’ll be helped along by his mobility. He averaged 29 rushing yards last year, a top-10 rate among quarterbacks. He also threw only 2 interceptions in his final 14 games.

At the same time, there’s work to be done. Williams took way too many sacks at Southern Cal, and that issue persisted last year, with him averaging a league-worst 4 sacks per game. He wasn’t helped by his offensive line, but he also too often held onto the ball too long.

While Williams is mobile, he seems to be more interested in working from the pocket, particularly around the goal line. The Bears ran the ball 23 times inside the 5-yard line last year, and Williams had only 1 of those carries. (He scored no rushing touchdowns.)

Ultimately, Williams ranked in the bottom-10 among quarterbacks in average passing yards and passing touchdowns per game, as well as in average composite fantasy production (22nd out of 30 quarterbacks who started at least half the season).

He seems like a natural candidate to improve. I would select him as a lesser second quarterback in a 12-team draft. But the historical numbers suggest there are more misses than hits with this kind of prospect.

In the 32-team era, 25 other quarterbacks have averaged bottom-10 quarterbacks in their first season (using standard fantasy scoring). Only four of those quarterbacks in their second season managed the big jump up to posting top-10 numbers. That includes a pair of Chicago guys – Mitchell Trubsiky and Justin Fields (who were both helped along by good rushing production).

Only 4 other quarterbacks from that group of 25 managed to move up into the top 20. The two most recent quarterbacks in that group include Trevor Lawrence and Bryce Young.

In the second of the two charts below, the top-10 quarterbacks are in bold. The others in the top 20 are tagged with dots.

Year	Player	St	Pass	TDP	Int	Run	TDR	Pts	Rk
2002	David Carr, Hou.	16	162	.56	.94	18	.19	13.5	28
2002	Joey Harrington, Det.	12	187	1.00	1.33	0	.00	13.4	29
2003	Kyle Boller, Balt.	9	139	.78	1.00	7	.00	11.6	31
2004	Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.	13	188	1.15	.69	11	.08	15.6	24
2008	Joe Flacco, Balt.	16	186	.88	.75	11	.13	14.8	26
2009	Josh Freeman, T.B.	9	204	1.11	2.00	17	.00	16.8	23
2009	Mark Sanchez, NYJ	15	163	.80	1.33	7	.20	13.5	28
2010	Sam Bradford, St.L.	16	220	1.13	.94	4	.06	16.2	24
2011	Blaine Gabbert, Jac.	14	154	.86	.79	7	.00	11.8	33
2011	Christian Ponder, Min.	10	175	1.30	1.30	21	.00	16.1	24
2012	Brandon Weeden, Clev.	15	226	.93	1.13	7	.00	15.8	27
2012	Ryan Tannehill, Mia.	16	206	.75	.81	13	.13	15.6	28
2013	EJ Manuel, Buff.	10	197	1.10	.90	19	.20	17.7	25
2014	Blake Bortles, Jac.	13	207	.69	1.15	30	.00	16.2	27
2016	Carson Wentz, Phil.	16	236	1.00	.88	9	.13	17.8	27
2017	Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.	12	183	.58	.58	21	.17	14.7	29
2018	Josh Rosen, Ariz.	13	172	.85	1.00	10	.00	13.1	32
2018	Sam Darnold, NYJ	13	220	1.31	1.15	11	.08	17.8	27
2020	Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.	9	201	1.22	.56	12	.33	18.4	29
2021	Justin Fields, Chi.	10	180	.70	.90	39	.10	16.3	30
2021	Mac Jones, N.E.	17	224	1.29	.76	8	.00	17.1	26
2021	Trevor Lawrence, Jac.	17	214	.71	1.00	20	.12	16.2	29
2021	Zach Wilson, NYJ	13	180	.69	.85	14	.31	15.2	31
2022	Kenny Pickett, Pitt.	12	190	.58	.50	19	.08	14.5	30
2023	Bryce Young, Car.	16	180	.69	.63	16	.00	13.6	28
2024	Caleb Williams, Chi.	17	208	1.18	.35	29	.00	18.4	22

If we look at the second-year stats for the same guys, two thirds of the players (17 of 25) averaged better per-game numbers. But just eight moving up into the top 20.

THOSE SAME QUARTERBACKS IN SECOND SEASONS
Year	Player	St	Pass	TDP	Int	Run	TDR	Pts	Rk	Imp
2003	David Carr, Hou.	11	181	.82	1.09	11	.18	14.5	26	-11%
2003	Joey Harrington, Det.	16	180	1.06	1.38	5	.00	14.0	27	-11%
2004	Kyle Boller, Balt.	16	160	.81	.69	12	.06	12.9	31	-12%
2005	• Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.	12	199	1.42	.75	6	.25	17.7	15	31%
2009	Joe Flacco, Balt.	16	226	1.31	.75	4	.00	16.9	21	5%
2010	• Josh Freeman, T.B.	16	216	1.56	.38	23	.00	19.4	16	24%
2010	Mark Sanchez, NYJ	16	206	1.06	.81	7	.19	16.4	23	-7%
2011	Sam Bradford, St.L.	10	216	.60	.60	3	.00	13.5	32	-21%
2012	Christian Ponder, Min.	16	183	1.13	.75	16	.13	16.1	26	19%
2012	Blaine Gabbert, Jac.	10	166	.90	.60	6	.00	12.9	31	-4%
2013	Ryan Tannehill, Mia.	16	245	1.50	1.06	15	.06	20.1	20	24%
2013	Brandon Weeden, Clev.	5	304	1.60	1.60	8	.00	22.5	--	44%
2014	EJ Manuel, Buff.	4	210	1.25	.75	13	.25	18.3	--	54%
2015	Blake Bortles, Jac.	16	277	2.19	1.13	19	.13	25.4	2	118%
2017	Carson Wentz, Phil.	13	254	2.54	.54	23	.00	25.7	2	53%
2018	Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.	14	230	1.71	.86	30	.21	23.2	10	27%
2019	Sam Darnold, NYJ	13	233	1.46	1.00	5	.15	19.3	26	19%
2019	Josh Rosen, Mia.	3	155	.33	1.00	4	.00	9.5	--	-46%
2021	Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.	12	208	1.33	.83	11	.17	17.8	22	22%
2022	Justin Fields, Chi.	15	149	1.13	.73	76	.53	23.0	6	41%
2022	• Trevor Lawrence, Jac.	17	242	1.47	.47	17	.29	21.8	11	44%
2022	Mac Jones, N.E.	14	214	1.00	.79	7	.07	16.0	28	22%
2022	Zach Wilson, NYJ	9	188	.67	.78	11	.11	13.8	31	2%
2023	Kenny Pickett, Pitt.	12	173	.50	.33	5	.08	11.6	29	-35%
2024	• Bryce Young, Car.	12	196	1.25	.75	20	.50	19.8	15	34%

—Ian Allan

Caleb Williams Ben Johnson

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