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Michael Mayer: Trick or Treat?

Year 3 breakout seems unlikely

I've seen some talk about Michael Mayer recently. The Raiders tight end has shown well enough at OTAs that the hope is he puts together some sort of breakout in Year 3. It seems unlikely.

In the first place, he'll obviously be the No. 2 option at the position, behind Brock Bowers. And even aside from that, there's not much evidence to say that tight ends who do as little as Mayer did his first two seasons suddenly emerge in their third.

Since 2000, I come up with 34 tight ends drafted in the second round who took the field in Year 3 (a couple were injured, and a couple others were already out of the league). Twelve of those tight ends put up top-25 numbers at the position in PPR leagues. Three-quarters of them (9 of 12) had at least one season with over 500 receiving yards in their first two years. Two of the other three had a season with 5 touchdowns.

Only one of them -- Dallas' Anthony Fasano -- had done anywhere near as little in his first two seasons as Mayer has to this point.

2ND-ROUND TIGHT ENDS, FIRST THREE SEASONS, 2000-
DraftPlayerYear 1Year 2Year 3Rk
2022Trey McBride, Ariz.29-265-181-825-3111-1146-42
2010Rob Gronkowski, N.E.42-546-1090-1327-1755-790-115
2001Alge Crumpler, Atl.25-330-336-455-544-552-37
2012Coby Fleener, Ind.26-281-252-608-451-774-87
2018Mike Gesicki, Mia.22-202-051-570-553-703-67
2020Cole Kmet, Chi.28-243-260-612-050-544-79
2003L.J. Smith, Phil.27-321-134-377-561-682-39
2013Zach Ertz, Phil.36-469-458-702-375-853-29
2007Zach Miller, Oak.44-444-356-778-166-805-311
2006Tony Scheffler, Den.18-286-449-549-540-645-312
2006Anthony Fasano, Dall.14-126-014-143-134-454-713
2018Dallas Goedert, Phil.33-334-458-607-546-524-320
2017Gerald Everett, LAR16-244-233-320-337-408-226
2002Doug Jolley, Oak.32-409-231-250-127-313-227
2021Pat Freiermuth, Pitt.60-497-763-732-232-308-230
2013Vance McDonald, S.F.8-119-02-30-030-326-330
2008Fred Davis, Wash.3-27-048-509-621-316-333
2008John Carlson, Sea.55-627-551-574-731-318-134
2011Lance Kendricks, St.L.28-352-042-519-432-258-434
2011Kyle Rudolph, Minn.26-249-353-493-930-313-335
2008Martellus Bennett, Dall.20-283-415-159-033-260-037
2004Kris Wilson, K.C.0-0-03-33-015-132-138
2004Ben Troupe, Tenn.33-329-155-530-413-150-242
2014Austin Seferian-Jenkins, T.B.21-221-221-338-413-154-154
2006Joe Klopfenstein, St.L.20-226-12-37-111-123-055
2015Maxx Williams, Balt.32-268-10-0-015-86-162
2019Drew Sample, Cin.5-30-040-349-111-81-073
2013Gavin Escobar, Dall.9-134-29-105-48-64-174
2017Adam Shaheen, Chi.12-127-35-48-19-74-077
2003Teyo Johnson, Oak.14-128-19-131-23-29-081
2014Jace Amaro, NYJ38-345-20-0-03-59-086
2014Troy Niklas, Ariz.3-38-04-33-21-0-0114
2023Brenton Strange, Jac.5-35-140-411-2?-?-??
2023Luke Musgrave, G.B.34-352-17-45-0?-?-??
2023Luke Schoonmaker, Dall.8-65-227-241-1?-?-??
2023Michael Mayer, L.V.27-304-221-156-0?-?-??
2023Sam LaPorta, Det.86-889-1060-726-7?-?-??

Mayer is one of five tight ends drafted in the second round back in 2023. Sam LaPorta has proved he belongs. Brenton Strange caught 40 passes for 411 yards and 2 TDs last year, and is a potential breakout as Jacksonville's starter this year. Luke Musgrave and Luke Schoonmaker have either battled injuries or been blocked by other players; they seem like longshots to do anything this year, or at all.

Mayer, I think, is in that group. Maybe he does something if Bowers gets hurt, but more likely he'll need to move to another team to be a significant player. Maybe in 2026.

--Andy Richardson

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