I've seen some talk about Michael Mayer recently. The Raiders tight end has shown well enough at OTAs that the hope is he puts together some sort of breakout in Year 3. It seems unlikely.
In the first place, he'll obviously be the No. 2 option at the position, behind Brock Bowers. And even aside from that, there's not much evidence to say that tight ends who do as little as Mayer did his first two seasons suddenly emerge in their third.
Since 2000, I come up with 34 tight ends drafted in the second round who took the field in Year 3 (a couple were injured, and a couple others were already out of the league). Twelve of those tight ends put up top-25 numbers at the position in PPR leagues. Three-quarters of them (9 of 12) had at least one season with over 500 receiving yards in their first two years. Two of the other three had a season with 5 touchdowns.
Only one of them -- Dallas' Anthony Fasano -- had done anywhere near as little in his first two seasons as Mayer has to this point.
2ND-ROUND TIGHT ENDS, FIRST THREE SEASONS, 2000- | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draft | Player | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Rk |
2022 | Trey McBride, Ariz. | 29-265-1 | 81-825-3 | 111-1146-4 | 2 |
2010 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 42-546-10 | 90-1327-17 | 55-790-11 | 5 |
2001 | Alge Crumpler, Atl. | 25-330-3 | 36-455-5 | 44-552-3 | 7 |
2012 | Coby Fleener, Ind. | 26-281-2 | 52-608-4 | 51-774-8 | 7 |
2018 | Mike Gesicki, Mia. | 22-202-0 | 51-570-5 | 53-703-6 | 7 |
2020 | Cole Kmet, Chi. | 28-243-2 | 60-612-0 | 50-544-7 | 9 |
2003 | L.J. Smith, Phil. | 27-321-1 | 34-377-5 | 61-682-3 | 9 |
2013 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 36-469-4 | 58-702-3 | 75-853-2 | 9 |
2007 | Zach Miller, Oak. | 44-444-3 | 56-778-1 | 66-805-3 | 11 |
2006 | Tony Scheffler, Den. | 18-286-4 | 49-549-5 | 40-645-3 | 12 |
2006 | Anthony Fasano, Dall. | 14-126-0 | 14-143-1 | 34-454-7 | 13 |
2018 | Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 33-334-4 | 58-607-5 | 46-524-3 | 20 |
2017 | Gerald Everett, LAR | 16-244-2 | 33-320-3 | 37-408-2 | 26 |
2002 | Doug Jolley, Oak. | 32-409-2 | 31-250-1 | 27-313-2 | 27 |
2021 | Pat Freiermuth, Pitt. | 60-497-7 | 63-732-2 | 32-308-2 | 30 |
2013 | Vance McDonald, S.F. | 8-119-0 | 2-30-0 | 30-326-3 | 30 |
2008 | Fred Davis, Wash. | 3-27-0 | 48-509-6 | 21-316-3 | 33 |
2008 | John Carlson, Sea. | 55-627-5 | 51-574-7 | 31-318-1 | 34 |
2011 | Lance Kendricks, St.L. | 28-352-0 | 42-519-4 | 32-258-4 | 34 |
2011 | Kyle Rudolph, Minn. | 26-249-3 | 53-493-9 | 30-313-3 | 35 |
2008 | Martellus Bennett, Dall. | 20-283-4 | 15-159-0 | 33-260-0 | 37 |
2004 | Kris Wilson, K.C. | 0-0-0 | 3-33-0 | 15-132-1 | 38 |
2004 | Ben Troupe, Tenn. | 33-329-1 | 55-530-4 | 13-150-2 | 42 |
2014 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins, T.B. | 21-221-2 | 21-338-4 | 13-154-1 | 54 |
2006 | Joe Klopfenstein, St.L. | 20-226-1 | 2-37-1 | 11-123-0 | 55 |
2015 | Maxx Williams, Balt. | 32-268-1 | 0-0-0 | 15-86-1 | 62 |
2019 | Drew Sample, Cin. | 5-30-0 | 40-349-1 | 11-81-0 | 73 |
2013 | Gavin Escobar, Dall. | 9-134-2 | 9-105-4 | 8-64-1 | 74 |
2017 | Adam Shaheen, Chi. | 12-127-3 | 5-48-1 | 9-74-0 | 77 |
2003 | Teyo Johnson, Oak. | 14-128-1 | 9-131-2 | 3-29-0 | 81 |
2014 | Jace Amaro, NYJ | 38-345-2 | 0-0-0 | 3-59-0 | 86 |
2014 | Troy Niklas, Ariz. | 3-38-0 | 4-33-2 | 1-0-0 | 114 |
2023 | Brenton Strange, Jac. | 5-35-1 | 40-411-2 | ?-?-? | ? |
2023 | Luke Musgrave, G.B. | 34-352-1 | 7-45-0 | ?-?-? | ? |
2023 | Luke Schoonmaker, Dall. | 8-65-2 | 27-241-1 | ?-?-? | ? |
2023 | Michael Mayer, L.V. | 27-304-2 | 21-156-0 | ?-?-? | ? |
2023 | Sam LaPorta, Det. | 86-889-10 | 60-726-7 | ?-?-? | ? |
Mayer is one of five tight ends drafted in the second round back in 2023. Sam LaPorta has proved he belongs. Brenton Strange caught 40 passes for 411 yards and 2 TDs last year, and is a potential breakout as Jacksonville's starter this year. Luke Musgrave and Luke Schoonmaker have either battled injuries or been blocked by other players; they seem like longshots to do anything this year, or at all.
Mayer, I think, is in that group. Maybe he does something if Bowers gets hurt, but more likely he'll need to move to another team to be a significant player. Maybe in 2026.
--Andy Richardson