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June 21, 2025

He's most unlikely to be a factor

33-year running backs seldom produce

I don't have a lot of absolutes in fantasy football. Best to keep an open mind and stuff. But I will absolutely not be drafting Raheem Mostert, even though there are recent reports suggesting he'll be the No. 2 and/or "primary third-down back" in Las Vegas.

The No. 2? Maybe, at least initially. But Sincere McCormick averaged 4.7 yards per attempt with his minimal work last year, while also catching 6 of the 7 passes thrown his way. He's the possible depth running back in Las Vegas I'd be more likely to throw a late-round pick at (and the recent Mostert speculation suggests I may be able to do that in the last round of a best-ball league).

A third-down back? Well, Mostert is a capable receiver. In his three years in Miami he caught 75 of the 97 balls thrown his way, a respectable enough 77 percent. He's experienced in pass protection, one of the questions I saw raised about Ashton Jeanty's game in the pre-draft dings on players.

But Jeanty can catch the ball and has way more juice and moves to turn those receptions into big plays. Are the Raiders seriously going to be taking him off the field in obvious passing situations in favor of Mostert? I really, really doubt it.

Mostert has had a nice career, very impressive for an undrafted player. But he's 33 years old, and the Fantasy Grim Reaper has tended to come for running backs by then.

This century, a total of 43 running backs aged 31 or older have put up top-30 numbers in PPR leagues. Only eight of those players have done it in their age-33 season. Mostert will be beating significant odds if he joins that group. In the table of 31-or-over running backs, the ones who were at least 33 years old are in bold.

RUNNING BACKS OVER 30 WITH TOP-30 NUMBERS, 2000-PRESENT
Year	Player	Age	Run	No	Rec	TD	Rk
2023	Raheem Mostert, Mia.	31	1012	25	175	21	5
2015	DeAngelo Williams, Pitt.	32	907	40	367	11	5
2004	Curtis Martin, NYJ	31	1697	41	245	14	5
2009	Ricky Williams, Mia.	32	1121	35	264	13	6
2006	Tiki Barber, NYG	31	1662	58	465	5	6
2009	Thomas Jones, NYJ	31	1402	10	58	14	9
2013	Fred Jackson, Buff.	32	890	47	387	10	11
2016	Frank Gore, Ind.	33	1025	38	277	8	12
2005	Mike Anderson, Den.	32	1014	18	212	13	12
2015	Frank Gore, Ind.	32	967	34	267	7	14
2010	LaDainian Tomlinson, NYJ	31	914	52	368	6	15
2014	Fred Jackson, Buff.	33	525	66	501	3	16
2005	Corey Dillon, N.E.	31	733	22	181	13	17
2004	Priest Holmes, K.C.	31	892	19	187	15	18
2001	Lamar Smith, Mia.	31	968	30	234	8	18
2018	Adrian Peterson, Was.	33	1042	20	208	8	19
2017	Frank Gore, Ind.	34	961	29	245	4	20
2002	Garrison Hearst, S.F.	31	972	48	317	9	20
2016	Matt Forte, NYJ	31	813	30	263	8	21
2014	Frank Gore, S.F.	31	1106	11	111	5	21
2008	Kevin Faulk, N.E.	32	507	58	486	6	21
2002	James Stewart, Det.	31	1021	46	333	6	21
2014	Darren Sproles, Phil.	31	329	40	387	8	22
2004	Jerome Bettis, Pitt.	32	941	6	46	13	22
2003	Richie Anderson, Dall.	32	306	69	493	5	22
2017	Marshawn Lynch, Oak.	31	891	20	151	7	23
2004	Marshall Faulk, St.L.	31	774	50	310	4	23
2001	Larry Centers, Buff.	33	160	80	620	4	23
2016	Darren Sproles, Phil.	33	438	52	427	4	24
2006	Corey Dillon, N.E.	32	812	15	147	13	24
2006	Warrick Dunn, Atl.	31	1140	22	170	5	25
2004	Emmitt Smith, Ari.	35	937	15	105	9	25
2015	Darren Sproles, Phil.	32	317	55	388	6	26
2007	Fred Taylor, Jac.	31	1202	9	58	5	26
2003	Charlie Garner, Oak.	31	553	48	386	4	26
2010	Thomas Jones, K.C.	32	896	14	122	6	27
2005	Curtis Martin, NYJ	32	735	24	118	5	27
2001	Emmitt Smith, Dall.	32	1021	17	116	3	27
2014	Steven Jackson, Atl.	31	707	20	148	6	28
2012	Willis McGahee, Den.	31	731	26	221	4	28
2008	Warrick Dunn, T.B.	33	786	47	330	2	28
2007	Warrick Dunn, Atl.	32	720	37	238	4	28
2005	Stephen Davis, Car.	31	549	5	45	12	29

Eagle eyes will note that one of the three best of these 31-plus running backs was Mostert himself, who went to the Pro Bowl as a Dolphin back in 2023, scoring an insane 21 touchdowns that season.

But putting up good numbers in Las Vegas as a possible No. 2, if he makes the roster? I'll bet against that.

--Andy Richardson

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