Patrick Mahomes is at least arguably the NFL's best quarterback, and he's taken his team to three straight Super Bowls, winning two of them. And yet, he's been a disappointment in fantasy leagues lately. Will 2025 be different?
Losing Tyreek Hill is often referenced, but Mahomes' first year without Hill (2022) was still elite. He led the league in passing yards (5,250), averaging 309 per game, and passing touchdowns (41), plus he ran for 4 additional scores. He was the No. 1 fantasy quarterback that season.
The last two years, not so much. Mahomes averaged just 253 passing yards those two years, threw 26-27 touchdowns, and ran for a total of 2 TDs. On a per-game basis the last two years, among quarterbacks to start at least half the time, Mahomes ranks just 12th in fantasy points per game. That's right: Patrick Mahomes, just barely a starter in typical leagues the last two seasons.
| QUARTERBACKS PER GAME, 2023-2024 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | PYd | RYd | TD | Pts |
| Josh Allen | 34 | 236.4 | 31.0 | 2.50 | 26.8 |
| Lamar Jackson | 33 | 237.9 | 52.6 | 2.24 | 26.8 |
| Jalen Hurts | 32 | 211.3 | 38.6 | 2.19 | 25.0 |
| Jayden Daniels | 17 | 209.9 | 52.4 | 1.82 | 24.1 |
| Joe Burrow | 27 | 267.7 | 10.7 | 2.22 | 23.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | 34 | 251.3 | 15.9 | 2.15 | 23.2 |
| Brock Purdy | 31 | 262.7 | 15.1 | 1.87 | 22.6 |
| Dak Prescott | 25 | 259.8 | 11.8 | 2.00 | 22.6 |
| Sam Darnold | 18 | 250.4 | 12.8 | 2.11 | 22.5 |
| Jared Goff | 34 | 270.7 | 2.3 | 2.06 | 22.4 |
| Bo Nix | 17 | 222.1 | 25.3 | 2.00 | 22.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 32 | 253.5 | 21.8 | 1.72 | 21.8 |
| Kyler Murray | 25 | 226.0 | 32.6 | 1.56 | 21.6 |
| Justin Fields | 19 | 193.1 | 46.7 | 1.58 | 21.6 |
| Jordan Love | 32 | 235.9 | 10.3 | 1.94 | 21.2 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 28 | 267.5 | 4.4 | 1.71 | 20.8 |
| Justin Herbert | 30 | 233.5 | 17.8 | 1.60 | 20.5 |
| Russell Wilson | 26 | 213.5 | 19.1 | 1.81 | 20.4 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 26 | 233.1 | 17.6 | 1.50 | 20.3 |
| Sam Howell | 17 | 232.1 | 15.5 | 1.53 | 20.1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 22 | 265.4 | 1.1 | 1.64 | 19.9 |
| Geno Smith | 32 | 248.3 | 13.3 | 1.38 | 19.6 |
| C.J. Stroud | 32 | 244.8 | 12.5 | 1.44 | 19.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | 31 | 249.3 | 3.4 | 1.42 | 18.6 |
Kyler Murray, who we talked about here yesterday, comes in just barely behind Mahomes in fantasy leagues (though he's definitely being drafted a lot later) the past two seasons. So do Justin Fields and Jordan Love.
Now we're seeing stories that this season will be different. Kansas City, apparently, is focusing on adding more explosive plays to the offense. Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown are fully healthy, Xavier Worthy has a year of experience, Travis Kelce will be playing his usual snaps, and the team drafted Jalen Royals in the fourth round. Mahomes' offensive line should be better, after the team signed a tackle away from San Francisco and drafted one in the first round.
Anything is possible, but I don't think I'll be drafting him. The personnel additions don't move the needle a ton for me, and it's easy to say the team will be a lot different if you look past the fact that they went 15-2 last year (with the second loss a meaningless Week 18 game where they rested everyone). Are we really going to see wholescale changes? It's still Matt Nagy at offensive coordinator, running the offense for Andy Reid.
ADP indicates Mahomes is going about 6th at the position. I think he's probably "safer" to finish in the top 10 than a few of the guys right after him, but compared to where he's being drafted versus some of them, he's a worse value. Won't be on my team.
--Andy Richardson