I saw a story recently suggesting people are sleeping on new Buffalo wideout Josh Palmer. The Bills signed him to a contract averaging $12 million per season, so I guess it's possible. But I really doubt it.
Palmer has his merits. He'll be working with one of the game's best quarterbacks in Josh Allen, and he's going to a team that's not really overloaded with difference-making wide receivers. There's Khalil Shakir, who's been pretty reliable, but then a bunch of modest or unproven guys -- Curtis Samuel, Elijah Moore, Keon Coleman. So maybe.
The problem is that Palmer is a lot like those modest veterans. The Bills seem to have collected a type of wide receiver, and it's not a type that wins fantasy leagues.
Over the past two seasons, 58 wide receivers have started at least 25 games. The Bills currently roster three of the 15 lowest-scoring ones -- 8.6 or fewer points per game in PPR leagues. (Shakir isn't setting the world on fire; he's also in the bottom half of that group.)
| WRS PER GAME, 2023-2024 (25-PLUS STARTS) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | No | Yds | TD | PPR |
| CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 32 | 7.4 | 92.0 | .65 | 21.0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 33 | 7.1 | 84.2 | .67 | 19.6 |
| Justin Jefferson, Min. | 27 | 6.3 | 96.6 | .56 | 19.3 |
| Tyreek Hill, Mia. | 33 | 6.1 | 83.6 | .58 | 18.1 |
| Puka Nacua, LAR | 28 | 6.6 | 88.4 | .36 | 18.0 |
| Nico Collins, Hou. | 27 | 5.5 | 85.3 | .57 | 17.4 |
| Mike Evans, T.B. | 31 | 4.9 | 72.9 | .77 | 17.1 |
| A.J. Brown, Phil. | 30 | 5.8 | 84.5 | .47 | 17.0 |
| Keenan Allen, Chi. | 28 | 6.4 | 71.0 | .50 | 16.5 |
| Davante Adams, 2tms | 31 | 6.1 | 71.2 | .53 | 16.3 |
| Stefon Diggs, Hou. | 25 | 6.2 | 67.2 | .49 | 15.9 |
| DJ Moore, Chi. | 34 | 5.7 | 68.5 | .45 | 15.5 |
| DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 29 | 5.1 | 65.5 | .52 | 14.8 |
| Terry McLaurin, Was. | 34 | 4.7 | 61.7 | .53 | 14.1 |
| Jakobi Meyers, L.V. | 31 | 5.1 | 59.2 | .46 | 13.9 |
| Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 34 | 5.8 | 63.1 | .30 | 13.9 |
| Drake London, Atl. | 33 | 5.1 | 65.9 | .34 | 13.8 |
| Adam Thielen, Car. | 27 | 5.6 | 60.3 | .35 | 13.7 |
| Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 29 | 3.8 | 53.1 | .55 | 13.6 |
| DK Metcalf, Sea. | 31 | 4.3 | 67.9 | .42 | 13.6 |
| Jordan Addison, Min. | 32 | 4.2 | 55.8 | .63 | 13.6 |
| Courtland Sutton, Den. | 33 | 4.2 | 56.2 | .55 | 13.1 |
| Michael Pittman, Ind. | 32 | 5.6 | 61.3 | .24 | 13.1 |
| Calvin Ridley, Ten. | 34 | 4.1 | 59.8 | .39 | 12.7 |
| Jayden Reed, G.B. | 33 | 3.6 | 50.0 | .53 | 12.6 |
| Zay Flowers, Balt. | 33 | 4.6 | 58.1 | .31 | 12.6 |
| Tank Dell, Hou. | 25 | 3.9 | 55.0 | .40 | 12.2 |
| Amari Cooper, 2tms | 29 | 4.0 | 62.0 | .32 | 12.1 |
| George Pickens, Pitt. | 31 | 3.9 | 65.8 | .26 | 12.1 |
| Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 29 | 4.5 | 60.6 | .23 | 12.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea. | 34 | 4.8 | 51.7 | .29 | 11.8 |
| Jerry Jeudy, Cle. | 33 | 4.4 | 60.2 | .20 | 11.6 |
| DeAndre Hopkins, 2tms | 33 | 4.0 | 50.5 | .36 | 11.3 |
| Josh Downs, Ind. | 31 | 4.5 | 50.8 | .23 | 11.0 |
| Khalil Shakir, Buff. | 25 | 4.3 | 54.3 | .20 | 11.0 |
| Jameson Williams, Det. | 27 | 3.0 | 50.2 | .41 | 10.8 |
| Romeo Doubs, G.B. | 30 | 3.5 | 42.5 | .41 | 10.2 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG | 31 | 4.8 | 38.8 | .16 | 10.0 |
| Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 34 | 3.8 | 43.9 | .23 | 9.5 |
| Brandin Cooks, Dall. | 26 | 3.1 | 35.2 | .44 | 9.3 |
| Quentin Johnston, LAC | 29 | 3.0 | 38.5 | .34 | 9.0 |
| DeMario Douglas, N.E. | 26 | 4.0 | 40.0 | .12 | 8.9 |
| Darnell Mooney, Atl. | 31 | 3.1 | 45.4 | .19 | 8.8 |
| Josh Palmer, LAC | 25 | 3.1 | 46.6 | .15 | 8.6 |
| Michael Wilson, Ari. | 29 | 2.9 | 38.4 | .25 | 8.3 |
| Gabe Davis, Jac. | 27 | 2.4 | 36.5 | .35 | 8.2 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Ten. | 25 | 2.3 | 33.9 | .41 | 8.2 |
| Darius Slayton, NYG | 33 | 2.7 | 40.7 | .21 | 8.1 |
| Elijah Moore, Cle. | 33 | 3.6 | 35.7 | .09 | 7.8 |
| Alec Pierce, Ind. | 33 | 2.1 | 40.5 | .27 | 7.8 |
| Rashod Bateman, Balt. | 33 | 2.3 | 34.0 | .30 | 7.6 |
| Dontayvion Wicks, G.B. | 25 | 2.4 | 28.3 | .36 | 7.4 |
| Curtis Samuel, Buff. | 30 | 3.1 | 28.9 | .20 | 7.4 |
| Tyler Boyd, Ten. | 33 | 3.2 | 32.0 | .06 | 6.8 |
| Kalif Raymond, Det. | 29 | 1.8 | 24.3 | .14 | 5.3 |
| Justin Watson, K.C. | 32 | 1.5 | 23.4 | .16 | 4.8 |
| Nelson Agholor, Balt. | 31 | 1.6 | 19.7 | .19 | 4.7 |
| Van Jefferson, Pitt. | 29 | 1.2 | 13.0 | .07 | 3.0 |
Maybe Buffalo will kick the tires on Keenan Allen (a former Palmer teammate). He shows up in the top 10 over the past two years.
With Palmer specifically, he was working with one of the game's better quarterbacks for most of those two seasons. And last year, with Allen and Mike Williams gone, he had a top-2 role handed to him (but saw rookie Ladd McConkey and second-year wideout Quentin Johnston zoom by him, each finishing with far more targets, catches and yards, while also catching 7-8 touchdowns (Palmer caught 1).
I will not be taking a late flier on Palmer. In fact, I dropped him in my dynasty league. He will not be living up to his contract, and I'm not sure we can even say with any confidence he'll be one of Buffalo's three best wideouts. Only the modest resumes of the other candidates works in his favor.
--Andy Richardson