It’s fair to be worried about the Lions losing Frank Ragnow. You take one of the top few centers away from an offense, and it should have an impact. Right? But the declines don’t seem to be as severe when looking at similar situations in the past.
On this one, I followed the same process as earlier in the week (when I was looking into left tackle Tristan Wirfs). I pulled up the list of All-Pro centers, then looked for instances where they missed action.
In this case, there have been 31 All-Pro centers in the last 15 years. That includes Ragnow showing up three times. In the last 15 years, only two centers (Jason Kelce and Maurkice Pouncey) have been named either first- or second-team All-Pro more times.
| ALL-PRO CENTERS SINCE 2010 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tm | AP |
| 2010 | Nick Mangold | NYJ | 1st |
| 2010 | Maurkice Pouncey | PIT | 2nd |
| 2011 | Maurkice Pouncey | PIT | 1st |
| 2011 | Ryan Kalil | CAR | 2nd |
| 2012 | Max Unger | SEA | 1st |
| 2012 | Maurkice Pouncey | PIT | 2nd |
| 2013 | Ryan Kalil | CAR | 1st |
| 2013 | Alex Mack | CLE | 2nd |
| 2014 | Maurkice Pouncey | PIT | 1st |
| 2014 | Travis Frederick | DAL | 2nd |
| 2015 | Ryan Kalil | CAR | 1st |
| 2015 | Travis Frederick | DAL | 2nd |
| 2016 | Travis Frederick | DAL | 1st |
| 2016 | Alex Mack | ATL | 2nd |
| 2017 | Jason Kelce | PHI | 1st |
| 2017 | Alex Mack | ATL | 2nd |
| 2018 | Jason Kelce | PHI | 1st |
| 2018 | Maurkice Pouncey | PIT | 2nd |
| 2019 | Jason Kelce | PHI | 1st |
| 2019 | Rodney Hudson | OAK | 2nd |
| 2020 | Corey Linsley | GNB | 1st |
| 2020 | Ryan Kelly | IND | 2nd |
| 2020 | Frank Ragnow | DET | 2nd |
| 2021 | Jason Kelce | PHI | 1st |
| 2021 | Corey Linsley | LAC | 2nd |
| 2022 | Jason Kelce | PHI | 1st |
| 2022 | Creed Humphrey | KAN | 2nd |
| 2023 | Jason Kelce | PHI | 1st |
| 2023 | Frank Ragnow | DET | 2nd |
| 2024 | Creed Humphrey | KAN | 1st |
| 2024 | Frank Ragnow | DET | 2nd |
Looking through these players, I see eight instances in which one of these players missed at least three games either the year they were named an All-Pro or in their next season. We can then compare how those teams did in those games, both with the All-Pro center and without.
I focused on the following four categories: wins, points, rushing yards and sacks. That gives us 32 categories to look at. Surprising, the numbers are worse in only 12 of the 32 categories (with a couple of ties).
If we hold each guy to per-game production (giving equal weight, for example, to 12 healthy games as seven injured games), these teams collectively actually won slightly more games WITHOUT their All-Pro centers (53 percent to 47). And they averaged 13 more rushing yards when they were missing their centers.
Scoring was down for 5 of the 8 offenses, with a collectively decline of 1.5 points per week. And with an average of a quarter of a sack. Slight declines, I would say, but the wheels didn’t fall off.
And to clarify, the stat comparisons are in season. (When Ryan Kalil missed eight games in 2016, I’m comparing those to his eight healthy games in 2015, not his 24 healthy games in 2015-16).
| TEAMS PLAYING WITHOUT ALL-PRO CENTERS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Win | Pts | Run | Sack |
| 2012 | Ryan Kalil, Car. | 35% | 31% | 21% | 20% |
| 2013 | Max Unger, Sea. | -18% | 9% | 67% | 4% |
| 2014 | Alex Mack, Cle. | -24% | -44% | -38% | -89% |
| 2016 | Ryan Kalil, Car. | 0% | 38% | 2% | 0% |
| 2019 | Maurkice Pouncey, Pitt. | 21% | -18% | 51% | 0% |
| 2020 | Corey Linsley, G.B. | 23% | -13% | 22% | -117% |
| 2021 | Frank Ragnow, Det. | 29% | 0% | 21% | 13% |
| 2022 | Corey Linsley, LAC | -48% | -33% | -41% | -20% |
| Avg | These 8 / PG | 4% | -6% | 11% | -11% |
Not listed are three other seasons where teams played pretty much the entire season without All-Pro centers. Jason Kelce retired prior to last year, and Maurkice Pouncey played in only one game in the 2013 and 2015 seasons. Surprisingly, those three Pennsylvania teams actually did better without their standout centers, going 32-19 versus 30-21 and averaging over a point more per week. Rushing was up by 13 yards per game, and with only 12 more sacks (in 51 combined games).
And one more Super Bowl win.
Not to dismiss the loss of Ragnow. I think it’s fair to downgrade the Lions offense some, relative to whatever you thought it was at the start of May. They’re hoping to plug in Tate Ratledge, a second-round pick a year ago, and veteran Graham Glasgow might have to switch into that spot.
But the historical numbers suggest this isn’t a sky-is-falling development.
—Ian Allan