Factoid

July 16, 2025

Youth vs. experience at wide receiver

Comparing rookies to 28-year-olds in a dynasty draft

I’m participating in a mock draft for dynasty leagues right now, and it’s been interesting. Some of the 12 franchises are placing more of an emphasis on trying to win right now, while others are making age more of a priority.

Specifically, Travis Hunter and Tetairoa McMillan both were selected in the third round, while another first-round receiver (Emeka Egbuka) went in the fourth. They went before DeVonta Smith, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Tyreek Hill and DJ Moore. With those other receivers being more proven, that surprised me.

Hill, of course, is nearing the end of his career – he’s 31 – but he’s a possibility to be a top-5 player at the position this year. Smith is 26, while Moore is 28 – those guys have plenty of ball left.

I would have thought more teams would have placed more of a priority on the next 4-5 years, rather than worrying much about the 2030 season.

I played around some with some numbers on this. Specifically, I looked at the 38 wide receivers picked in the first round between 2011 and 2020, then looked at how those wide receivers performed in their first five seasons. (I left out wide receivers drafted in 2021-24 because those guys haven’t yet played five pro seasons.).

Separately, I pulled up 37 wide receivers who finished with top-30 numbers as 27-year-olds in the 2010-19 decade, then looked at how they performed in their next five seasons – their numbers when they were 28, 29, 30, 31 and 32.

The veteran players (tagged with black dots) tended to be slightly more productive. They averaged 706 fantasy points (in 5 years), 25 more than the first-round players.

The rookie players combined for 65 seasons with top-30 numbers, slightly more than the vets (62 such seasons by one fewer player). That’s about 1.7 such seasons per guy in each group.

28-YEAR-OLD VS. ROOKIE RECEIVERS (for 5 years)
Year	Player	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	Points
2020	• Davante Adams	1	2	3	10	12	1546.9
2020	Justin Jefferson	6	4	1	32	3	1497.9
2020	CeeDee Lamb	22	19	6	1	8	1426.7
2012	• Brandon Marshall	2	5	34	3	49	1320.2
2011	A.J. Green	17	4	4	24	8	1311.4
2014	Mike Evans	13	22	3	17	9	1257.3
2011	Julio Jones	21	11	63	6	2	1253.5
2014	Odell Beckham	8	5	4	84	15	1222.3
2013	DeAndre Hopkins	49	14	4	29	1	1217.5
2020	• Keenan Allen	12	11	41	8	34	1140.7
2011	• Larry Fitzgerald	7	33	17	51	7	1120.0
2014	• Julian Edelman	15	35	14	21	7	1104.0
2014	Brandin Cooks	56	14	10	15	13	1103.6
2017	• Julio Jones	7	3	3	52	93	1082.4
2016	• Antonio Brown	1	2	5	154	65	1074.5
2020	• Tyler Lockett	8	16	13	33	66	1071.5
2015	Amari Cooper	21	15	36	19	10	1071.4
2018	• Adam Thielen	7	65	10	28	31	1057.5
2018	DJ Moore	36	16	25	17	25	1045.6
2011	• Marques Colston	10	13	25	37	56	1000.2
2018	Calvin Ridley	20	27	5	103	18	990.3
2020	• DeAndre Hopkins	4	46	47	22	48	963.3
2015	• Demaryius Thomas	10	16	16	39	83	951.6
2015	• Emmanuel Sanders	18	22	60	23	32	944.7
2020	Brandon Aiyuk	35	35	15	14	105	900.2
2016	• Golden Tate	17	11	31	45	93	875.4
2019	Marquise Brown	46	36	21	44	53	848.4
2016	• A.J. Green	34	10	42	68	41	836.7
2018	• Marvin Jones	63	28	18	34	58	834.6
2020	Jerry Jeudy	45	85	22	50	13	829.5
2013	• Calvin Johnson	6	17	12	DNP	DNP	795.3
2014	• DeSean Jackson	23	68	41	45	43	786.8
2017	• T.Y. Hilton	27	14	57	42	100	780.0
2012	Michael Floyd	65	27	44	38	69	768.3
2014	Sammy Watkins	27	20	91	41	64	763.2
2017	Mike Williams	139	33	41	48	13	762.3
2012	Kendall Wright	45	20	41	75	84	721.4
2011	• Greg Jennings	18	75	34	42	114	699.9
2014	• Pierre Garcon	47	31	24	75	112	696.6
2015	DeVante Parker	78	50	52	107	11	684.9
2017	Corey Davis	85	29	64	29	69	670.8
2016	Will Fuller	61	61	69	54	32	670.6
2014	• Mike Wallace	20	74	23	38	DNP	667.7
2020	• Robert Woods	14	51	57	78	119	631.6
2014	Kelvin Benjamin	16	27	47	98	DNP	631.1
2013	Tavon Austin	53	81	27	52	106	630.7
2016	• Doug Baldwin	8	13	46	DNP	DNP	618.9
2011	• Lance Moore	34	21	77	108	85	601.0
2015	Nelson Agholor	101	87	23	34	75	600.3
2013	Cordarrelle Patterson	38	83	160	66	77	478.9
2012	• Dwayne Bowe	43	43	57	169	DNP	457.1
2015	• Eric Decker	13	122	58	DNP	DNP	411.4
2020	• Jarvis Landry	33	52	105	DNP	DNP	385.9
2015	Phillip Dorsett	110	79	127	88	71	361.8
2020	• Odell Beckham	92	55	63	158	DNP	340.1
2018	• Alshon Jeffery	27	60	155	DNP	DNP	331.0
2015	Breshad Perriman	DNP	77	145	103	51	319.1
2012	Justin Blackmon	29	93	DNP	DNP	DNP	261.2
2016	Josh Doctson	170	57	67	DNP	DNP	237.6
2020	Jalen Reagor	91	96	138	144	148	237.4
2017	John Ross	199	86	74	203	129	227.8
2016	• Jeremy Maclin	72	66	DNP	DNP	DNP	211.5
2014	• Brian Hartline	77	64	DNP	DNP	DNP	208.7
2020	Henry Ruggs	89	86	DNP	DNP	DNP	172.6
2016	Corey Coleman	83	92	165	DNP	DNP	171.4
2019	N'Keal Harry	124	98	143	142	221	170.3
2016	Laquon Treadwell	188	121	94	135	156	170.0
2014	• Victor Cruz	97	75	DNP	DNP	DNP	166.3
2017	• Rishard Matthews	37	177	DNP	DNP	DNP	163.6
2011	Jonathan Baldwin	108	101	171	DNP	DNP	116.7
2017	• Terrelle Pryor	107	117	DNP	DNP	DNP	103.1
2018	• Jermaine Kearse	89	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	80.1
2011	• Braylon Edwards	122	116	DNP	DNP	DNP	77.0
2015	Kevin White	DNP	123	189	164	DNP	54.4
2012	A.J. Jenkins	DNP	133	145	DNP	DNP	39.7

If you can land a franchise rookie, of course, you can collect big dividends for a lot of years – Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, DeAndre Hopkins, etc. But I don’t have a lot of confidence that Hunter, McMillan and Egbuka are going to be those kind of guys.

There will also be misses among rookies. Jalen Reagor, recall, was selected before Jefferson, while Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs both went before Lamb. So with this current crop of rookies, I would be more inclined to settle for the bird in hand.

As long as I’ve got the numbers out, I will also show you the numbers for the 29-year-olds. These are the 27 wide receivers from 2010-2019 who put up top-30 numbers as 28-year-olds – how they then did in their next five seasons.

29-YEAR-OLDS COMING OFF TOP-30 SEASONS
Year	Player	29	30	31	32	33	Points
2012	Larry Fitzgerald	33	17	51	7	11	1096.7
2013	Brandon Marshall	5	34	3	49	125	1019.0
2019	Adam Thielen	65	10	28	31	17	979.2
2015	Julian Edelman	35	14	21	7	112	932.0
2014	Jordy Nelson	3	2	46	38	DNP	928.5
2018	Julio Jones	3	3	52	93	96	900.9
2017	Antonio Brown	2	5	154	65	60	888.3
2016	Emmanuel Sanders	22	60	23	32	41	881.1
2012	Vincent Jackson	12	16	33	66	131	824.6
2012	Marques Colston	13	25	37	56	DNP	757.9
2016	Demaryius Thomas	16	16	39	83	DNP	680.2
2017	Golden Tate	11	31	45	93	DNP	650.3
2018	T.Y. Hilton	14	57	42	100	150	621.5
2015	DeSean Jackson	68	41	45	43	129	614.1
2012	Nate Washington	51	35	66	49	DNP	566.0
2016	Michael Crabtree	12	30	56	180	DNP	550.0
2013	James Jones	41	38	30	DNP	DNP	525.3
2014	Calvin Johnson	17	12	DNP	DNP	DNP	490.1
2012	Greg Jennings	75	34	42	114	DNP	484.0
2015	Mike Wallace	74	23	38	DNP	DNP	452.9
2015	Brandon LaFell	80	35	55	134	DNP	437.7
2018	Mohamed Sanu	28	58	126	140	DNP	385.3
2017	Doug Baldwin	13	46	DNP	DNP	DNP	365.1
2013	Miles Austin	114	68	123	DNP	DNP	205.6
2016	Eric Decker	122	58	DNP	DNP	DNP	156.7
2019	Alshon Jeffery	60	155	DNP	DNP	DNP	145.7
2017	Kenny Britt	101	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	57.6

—Ian Allan

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