It’s almost draft season and to get the juices flowing we are running some mock drafts and posting the results with commentary. Let's talk about all the tough choices, ADP and rankings sleepers, players you have to have and players you'll never draft.
As we are not yet to mid-July, the first mock draft is a full PPR dynasty startup. This mock is on Sleeper, it's a normal snake draft, no round reversals, and the rosters are 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX/7BENCH. For the drafters we have a mixture of Fantasy Index staff and members of the Fantasy Index Discord server.
Thanks to everyone who commented on the first post in this series. I’ve played in a lot of league formats, but you guys were cooking up some different stuff back in the day. It’s a lot of fun to hear about all the dynasty leagues from every era and everyone’s approach to dynasty and mock drafting. This conversation has spilled into multiple articles which is awesome. I’m doing my best to make note of everyone who’s said they want to participate in the next mock but feel free to email me at ben@fantasyindex.com as well as dropping a comment. In the meantime, let’s take a look at how the rosters are developing though rounds 3, 4 and, 5 of this draft:
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Dynasty Startup, Draftboard | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pos | Name | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 5 |
1 | Ian Allan | J. Chase | J. Burrow | J. Taylor | D. Metcalf | S. LaPorta |
2 | Bryce | B. Robinson | M.Harrison | G. Wilson | D. Smith | K. Walker |
3 | Falchion | J. Jefferson | O. Hampton | T. Henderson | E. Egbuka | P. Mahomes |
4 | Lou | M. Nabers | J. Smith-Njigba | A. Brown | C. Brown | C. Olave |
5 | Ben Prator | J. Gibbs | T. McBride | J. Jacobs | J. Hurts | J. Williams |
6 | Jessel | C. Lamb | L. McConkey | R. Rice | C. McCaffrey | D. Henry |
7 | Gibbsy | P. Nacua | B. Hall | L. Jackson | K. Johnson | J. Waddle |
8 | Breece | A. Jeanty | J. Daniels | T. Hunter | X. Worthy | Z. Flowers |
9 | Alex | A. St. Brown | D. Achane | T. Higgins | R. Odunze | J. Addison |
10 | Andy Richardson | B. Thomas | B. Irving | J. Allen | K. Williams | T. McLaurin |
11 | Luke Wilson | B. Bowers | D. London | Q. Judkins | G. Pickens | D. Moore |
12 | Tabby | S. Barkley | N. Collins | T. McMillian | J. Cook | T. Hill |
In this dynasty format the two main values are “win now” and “youth”. The ideal team would be a serious contender that is also stacked with young players but building one is easier said than done. Through five rounds we can start to see how teams shape up in regards to those values by considering 2025 projected points and the average age of the rostered players. Keep in mind not having a QB here puts a roster at a disadvantage in projected points. The teams without a QB have an asterisk. Here is where this draft stands:
2025 Projected Points | Average Age | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ian Allan | 1957.05 | Breece | 22.60 | ||||
Andy Richardson | 1814.89 | Luke Wilson | 23.60 | ||||
*Jessel | 1722.88 | Bryce | 23.80 | ||||
Breece | 1686.85 | Alex | 24.00 | ||||
Ben | 1675.54 | Falchion | 24.20 | ||||
*Alex | 1621.35 | Lou | 24.40 | ||||
*Lou | 1609.83 | Gibbsy | 24.60 | ||||
*Tabby | 1581.33 | Ben Prator | 25.00 | ||||
Gibbsy | 1559.42 | Andy Richardson | 25.20 | ||||
*Luke Wilson | 1545.12 | Ian Allen | 26.00 | ||||
*Bryce | 1514.84 | Tabby | 26.40 | ||||
Falchion | 1468.44 | Jessel | 26.80 |
To start the third round Ian Allan nabbed Jonathan Taylor as the 9th RB off the board. This was five spots after his RB4 ranking which is scary paired with the Chase/Burrow stack. Even considering that value, Tayor’s ADP is five spots after this pick indicating that the 26-year-old is frequently sliding to the mid-second round where his value can’t be ignored. In the fourth round Ian took D.K. Metcalf as his WR2 and finished by taking Sam LaPorta to be his tight end in the fifth. Similarly to Taylor, Ian snagged Metcalf as the WR24, six spots past his WR 18 ranking even though ADP has him going twelve spots later. That’s a disconnect between his ranking and ADP that bears watching. At the end of round 3 this roster has the most projected points but the average age of 26, is close to the oldest. That's far from problematic at this point. Metcalf at 28 is the closest player to decline but he is built like a statue of a god and has missed all of five games in his career. I think it’s safe to assume that he has three good years left.
Bryce’s team added Garrett Wilson, Devonta Smith and Kenneth Walker. Smith is probably the best value there as the WR23, he’s ranked as the WR18. Kenneth Walker is also a clutch add, filling that vital RB2 spot. The downside narrative for Walker is that the Seahawks might be bad and Charbonnet could steal his volume, which is a possibility especially around the goalline. The other downside is that new OC Klint Kubiak has said he plans to incorporate a gap run scheme. I think this may be a bit overblown. Kubiak made his name with an outside zone scheme which suits Walker. This is also a contract year for the RB which can be a real boost. I think this is more of a committee situation, but Walker’s touches could be valuable ones if he can stay healthy. Bryce finds himself with 4th lowest projected points but with an average age of 23.8 years it’s the 3rd youngest roster. I think he's got a good balance of youth and firepower so far.
Falchion continued his pursuit of rookies taking Patriot’s second round pick Treveyon Henderson to be his RB2. Henderson is a play maker with burst, speed and great moves but never carried more than 183 times at Ohio State. He projects as a lower volume, high-efficiency player to complement Rahmondre Stevenson. I think it’s a bit optimistic to consider him a plug and play RB2 in his first year and the rankings agree. Drafted as the RB10 but ranked as the RB37, he’s one of the biggest reaches at this point. I can tell you from experience that this is Falchion’s game and he’s good at it. He wants to stay young, he trades a lot and collects draft picks like they’re Beanie Babies in the late-90s. I’m not surprised that he reached again for his WR2 in Emeka Egbuka, another rookie who finds himself in a crowded Buccaneer’s wide receiver group. Falchion is trying to build a dynasty, not win this year, which is reflected in his 2nd to last projected points.
Lou added A.J. Brown as his WR3, and finally took his RB1 in the fourth round, Bengals rising star Chase Brown. Brown was selected as the RB17, he’s ranked as the RB7 so getting him there was a godsend for Lou’s heavy WR build. He then immediately made a big reach for another wide receiver in Chris Olave. At times Olave has played like a man among boys. He averaged 8.3 targets and 70 yards per game through his first two seasons. Yes, his quarterback situation is bad, but that’s been true of the Saints for his entire career. The real reason he’s being faded down to WR3 territory is concussions. He’s had four confirmed concussions in three seasons including two in 2024 that held him to just eight games. It’s an upside gamble for sure but I rarely recommend playing scared and with the way WRs are going in this draft there’s no guarantee he makes it back despite being drafted 11 spots before his ADP. I think this team has a lot of potential, very strong at WR and getting Chase Brown there is a serious coup. Lou’s projected points are near the bottom but he has yet to draft a QB so we can ignore that for now. With an average age of just 24.4 years this could be one of the better youth builds in this draft.
Jessel turned his nose up at youth and built himself an other-worldly RB group featuring Christian McCaffrey 10 spots after his ADP and Derrick Henry 19 spots after his! He’s got the 5th highest projected points and has not drafted a QB, that’s impressive, though he’s got the highest average age at 26.8 years. You can’t deny the value on those RBs but his team is going to be hunting for top end backs in a year or two and that’s not an easy position to win from.
Gibbsy continued to walk his own path drafting Steelers rookie RB Kaleb Johnson in the fourth round. I do understand the narrative. Getting a young back in an Arthur Smith offense makes sense on paper but Johnson’s lack of speed and elusiveness make him less exciting than many of the backs in this class. He’s a big ground and pounder so the goalline work could be there to vindicate this pick before you know it. Fantasy Index ranks him as the RB36 for dynasty and he went as the RB15 here, a 21 spot discrepancy. GIbbsy also added Lamar Jackson 16 spots after his ADP, a terrific value. This roster is 7th in both projected points and average age, so it will be interesting to see if he tries to keep that balance going forward or starts compromising his youth for some win-now players.
Andy Richardson let the value fall to him in these rounds and it fell like an avalanche. He snagged Kyren Willams as his RB2, 8 spots after both his ranking and his ADP. Other than his lack of work in the passing game I can’t fathom why anyone would be fading Kyren. He has averaged 87 yards and 0.57 TDs per game in the last two seasons where he finished as the RB2 and RB10 on a per-game basis. Andy then turned around and took Terry McLaurin 11 spots after his ranking and 14 spots after his ADP. I’m all in on McLaurin for redraft this season though he will be turning 30 in September, so his potential is limited in this format. His 13 touchdowns in 2024 may be an outlier, but the way the Commanders played last season he’s a shoe in for 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns is definitely in the range of outcomes. Other than that Andy added the league MVP, Josh Allen, at 22 spots after his ADP. His team has an average age of 25.2 years and is projected to score the 4th most points this season, putting Andy in great shape to end up with a competitive roster that is still fairly young.
Luke Wilson took some interesting swings in these rounds. In the third he selected Quinshon Judkins, this was about an hour before the news broke of his arrest on domestic violence charges. Ain’t that the way fantasy football does a guy. Similar incidents in recent years and the Browns’ seemingly bottomless appetite for off-field drama lead me to believe this won’t have much of an impact of Judkins' career but you never can tell. The rankings don’t care for this pick, 14 spots above his ranking and 7 ahead of his ADP. I don’t mind it, he’s young and he’s got a wide-open path to the lion’s share of the carries. I’m less enthralled with reaching for George Pickins 16 spots ahead of his ranking and 24 ahead of his ADP. He’s the first reach that really might have made it back in the next round. I am interested in Pickens as a Cowboy. His contested catch skills are elite, and the Cowboys have not had an exciting WR2 in a long time. Drama and effort issues were the problem for Pickens in Pittsburgh and that’s a stink that hangs around for fantasy managers. It could just be that he needs a bit more motivation and maybe Jerry Jones and the Cowboys will be the ones to give it to him.
Those rosters featured the most interesting selections for discussion here but I’ll make a point of highlighting the others in the next write-up. For now those managers will have to be content with a look at the Roster Construction view of this mock draft through five rounds:
Dynasty Startup, Roster Construction | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pos | Name | QB1 | RB1 | RB2 | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3 | TE | FLEX |
1 | Ian Allan | J. Burrow (2.12) | J. Taylor (3.01) | J. Chase (1.01) | D. Metcalf (4.12) | S. LaPorta (5.1) | ||||
2 | Bryce | B. Robinson (1.02) | K. Walker (5.02) | M.Harrison (2.11) | G.Wilson (3.02) | D. Smith (4.11) | ||||
3 | Falchion | P. Mahomes (5.3) | O. Hampton (2.10) | T. Henderson (3.03) | J. Jefferson (1.03) | E. Egbuka (4.10) | ||||
4 | Lou | C. Brown (4.09) | M. Nabers (1.04) | J. Smith-Njigba (2.09) | A. Brown (3.4) | C. Olave (5.04) | ||||
5 | Ben Prator | J. Hurts (4.8) | J. Gibbs (1.05) | J. Jacobs (3.05) | J. Williams (5.05) | T. McBride (2.8) | ||||
6 | Jessel | C. McCaffrey (4.07) | D. Henry (5.06) | C. Lamb (1.06) | L. McConkey (2.07) | R.Rice (3.06) | ||||
7 | Gibbsy | L. Jackson (3.07) | B. Hall (2.06) | K. Johnson (4.06) | P. Nacua (1.07) | J. Waddle (5.07) | ||||
8 | Breece | J. Daniels (2.05) | A. Jeanty (1.08) | T. Hunter (3.08) | X. Worthy (4.05) | Z. Flowers (5.08) | ||||
9 | Alex | D. Achane (2.04) | A. St. Brown (1.09) | T. Higgins (3.09) | R. Odunze (4.04) | J. Addison (5.09) | ||||
10 | Andy Richardson | J. Allen (3.10) | B. Irving (2.03) | K. Williams (4.03) | B. Thomas (1.10) | T. McLaurin (5.10) | ||||
11 | Luke Wilson | Q. Judkins (3.11) | D. London (2.02) | G. Pickens (4.02) | D. Moore (5.11) | B. Bowers (1.11) | ||||
12 | Tabby | S. Barkley (1.12) | J. Cook (4.10) | N. Collins (2.10) | T. Mcmillian (3.12) | T. Hill (5.12) |