The wheels of justice turned yesterday for a couple of young wide receivers. Rashee Rice was the bigger one, but Jordan Addison also pleaded no contest in his case. Some thoughts on both.
One of the reasons Rice is bigger as that many or most have thought his case would be further delayed with no punishment until after the 2025 season. His ADP thus far has been around 14th-15th among wide receivers in PPR leagues, suggesting drafters expected him to be available for most of the season as Kansas City's No. 1 wideout.
Resolution in his case, with Rice pleading guilty to two felonies -- collision, and racing on a highway, causing serious bodily injuries -- means the league can (and likely will) step in with a suspension this summer. I have seen a report that Kansas City expects a suspension of 2-4 games. They know better than I, but my guess yesterday was 6 games, and I'm sticking with that. These are felony charges, Rice is very fortunate that the consequences weren't significantly worse, and I think the league will give him a harsher penalty than a 2-game slap on the wrist. If we want to split the difference and call it four games, fine.
What this means for the fantasy value of Kansas City receivers is debatable. I think that Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown will open as the top 2 wide receivers. But JuJu Smith-Schuster is still around, and perhaps they'll use more sets with two tight ends, wizened Travis Kelce and Noah Gray. I think giving a slight bump to Worthy and Brown makes sense, and a ding to Rice, and that's what we'll likely see when our first update comes out next Monday. In the magazine we had Rice 25th in PPR, slated to make 14 starts (I think Ian was splitting the difference on a suspension, predicting something but not with any certainty). My guess is he'll drop to 12-13 starts and maybe about 30th at the position. Obviously if the league does give him 6 games, even that will be too high. I will be drafting Worthy as the team's No. 1.
Addison pleaded no contest to reckless driving with alcohol involved. He was arrested for DUI last year, so this is a plea which is a little less serious, but still one that will be addressed by the league's policy on substance abuse. As a first-time offender, according to the report I saw, that would mean a three-game suspension.
Addison was scheduled to go to trial next week, so this avoids that, but the plea suggests he had little hope of escaping punishment which would have been to more serious charges. I think we can say he'll likely miss the first three games.
A year ago, Addison injured an ankle in Week 1 and missed the next two games. Jalen Nailor in those games caught touchdowns each week, which is intriguing. But he caught only 4 other passes, total, in those three games, and then just 21 in the final 14 games of the season, with Addison available. I think this anticipated suspension will make him cheaper to select in drafts, and then a pretty good choice once he's available. He'll be the No. 2 wideout in an offense that likes to emphasize the pass.
Both wideouts entered the league in 2023, selected in the first two rounds of that draft. They've been among the most productive among all wideouts who've played at least half the time as first- and second-year players the last two years, with Rice averaging 61 yards per game and Addison 56; that's 4th and 7th over that timeframe.
| WIDEOUTS, FIRST TWO SEASONS (2023-2024) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Y/G |
| Puka Nacua | 28 | 266 | 184 | 2476 | 9 | 88.4 |
| Brian Thomas | 17 | 133 | 87 | 1282 | 10 | 75.4 |
| George Pickens | 17 | 106 | 63 | 1140 | 5 | 67.1 |
| Rashee Rice | 20 | 131 | 103 | 1226 | 9 | 61.3 |
| Garrett Wilson | 17 | 168 | 95 | 1042 | 3 | 61.3 |
| Zay Flowers | 33 | 224 | 151 | 1917 | 9 | 58.1 |
| Jordan Addison | 32 | 207 | 133 | 1786 | 19 | 55.8 |
| Tank Dell | 25 | 156 | 98 | 1376 | 10 | 55.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 17 | 116 | 62 | 885 | 8 | 52.1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 34 | 230 | 163 | 1758 | 10 | 51.7 |
| Josh Downs | 31 | 205 | 140 | 1574 | 7 | 50.8 |
| Jayden Reed | 33 | 169 | 119 | 1650 | 14 | 50.0 |
| Rome Odunze | 17 | 101 | 54 | 734 | 3 | 43.2 |
| Romeo Doubs | 17 | 96 | 59 | 674 | 8 | 39.6 |
| Michael Wilson | 29 | 129 | 85 | 1113 | 7 | 38.4 |
| Demario Douglas | 31 | 166 | 115 | 1182 | 3 | 38.1 |
| Xavier Worthy | 17 | 98 | 59 | 638 | 6 | 37.5 |
| Khalil Shakir | 17 | 45 | 39 | 611 | 2 | 35.9 |
| Quentin Johnston | 32 | 158 | 93 | 1142 | 10 | 35.7 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 32 | 134 | 78 | 996 | 9 | 31.1 |
| Jahan Dotson | 17 | 83 | 49 | 518 | 4 | 30.5 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 20 | 75 | 45 | 608 | 3 | 30.4 |
| Alec Pierce | 17 | 65 | 32 | 514 | 2 | 30.2 |
| Marvin Mims | 33 | 85 | 61 | 880 | 7 | 26.7 |
| Tre Tucker | 33 | 115 | 66 | 870 | 5 | 26.4 |
| Cedric Tillman | 25 | 93 | 50 | 563 | 3 | 22.5 |
| Calvin Austin III | 34 | 88 | 53 | 728 | 5 | 21.4 |
| Parker Washington | 26 | 72 | 48 | 522 | 5 | 20.1 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 17 | 55 | 23 | 312 | 0 | 18.4 |
Personally, I'll be drafting Addison as a No. 2; I think 3 games is the most he'll be suspended, and he'll be fairly cheap in drafts (cheaper now). Rice, since I'm nervously thinking he might be more likely to get 6 games than the 2-4 Kansas City is apparently expecting, I imagine he'll be drafted earlier than I'd consider him.
--Andy Richardson