Is it my imagination, or is it harder than usual this year to pinpoint the dumpster fire offenses? Even the worst offenses have some selling points.
The Bears, after all, added Ben Johnson and a bunch of new linemen. Some chance they move up to decent. And the Raiders added a generational running back (Ashton Jeanty), making them look a lot more formidable.
The Patriots might have an up-and-coming quarterback (Drake Maye), and they’re turning things over to Mike Vrabel, who won a lot of games in Tennessee. New England is favored in 11 of its 17 games.
The Giants have ranked 30th or lower in scoring in four of the past five seasons, making them a harder sell. But they’ve got a difference-making receiver and one of the top few left tackles in the league. Malik Nabers and Andrew Thomas, those are building blocks.
The Browns look like a reasonable candidate to be near the bottom, with a potpourri approach at quarterback. They averaged a point per game less than everyone last year. But they got a lot better after benching Deshaun Watson last year, and they also got hot at the of the 2023 season.
The big-picture data underscores that change is constant in the NFL. And the tendency is for struggling teams to be more likely to improve.
Below see the list of the 50 teams in the last 10 years that have finished in the bottom 5 in scoring. Two thirds of these teams moved out of the bottom 5 the next season. Collectively, they improved by an average of 3.6 points per game.
Of these 50 bottom-5 offense, 14 moved up to above-average in their next season (about 1 in 4). Seven of the 50 (about a third) remained in the bottom 5, and I’ve got them tagged with black dots.
If form holds, three of the bottom-5 offenses from last year – Browns, Giants, Patriots, Raiders, Bears – will be moving out of the bottom 5.
TEAMS RANKING IN BOTTOM 5 IN SCORING | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Pts | Rk | Next | Rk | Diff |
2014 | NY Jets | 17.7 | 28 | 24.2 | 11 | 6.5 |
2014 | Tampa Bay | 17.3 | 29 | 21.4 | 20 | 4.1 |
2014 | • Tennessee | 15.9 | 30 | 18.7 | 28 | 2.8 |
2014 | Oakland | 15.8 | 31 | 22.4 | 17 | 6.6 |
2014 | Jacksonville | 15.6 | 32 | 23.5 | 14 | 7.9 |
2015 | Tennessee | 18.7 | 28 | 23.8 | 14 | 5.1 |
2015 | • St. Louis | 17.5 | 29 | 14.0 | 32 | -3.5 |
2015 | • Cleveland | 17.4 | 30 | 16.5 | 31 | -.9 |
2015 | Dallas | 17.2 | 31 | 26.3 | 5 | 9.1 |
2015 | San Francisco | 14.9 | 32 | 19.3 | 27 | 4.4 |
2016 | Houston | 17.4 | 28t | 21.1 | 17 | 3.7 |
2016 | • Chicago | 17.4 | 28t | 16.5 | 29 | -.9 |
2016 | NY Jets | 17.2 | 30 | 18.6 | 24 | 1.4 |
2016 | • Cleveland | 16.5 | 31 | 14.6 | 32 | -1.9 |
2016 | LA Rams | 14.0 | 32 | 29.9 | 1 | 15.9 |
2017 | Miami | 17.6 | 28 | 19.9 | 26 | 2.4 |
2017 | Chicago | 16.5 | 29 | 26.3 | 9 | 9.8 |
2017 | Indianapolis | 16.4 | 30 | 27.1 | 5 | 10.6 |
2017 | NY Giants | 15.4 | 31 | 23.1 | 16 | 7.7 |
2017 | Cleveland | 14.6 | 32 | 22.4 | 20 | 7.8 |
2018 | Oakland | 18.1 | 28 | 19.6 | 24 | 1.4 |
2018 | • Washington | 17.6 | 29 | 16.6 | 32 | -.9 |
2018 | Buffalo | 16.8 | 30 | 19.6 | 23 | 2.8 |
2018 | Jacksonville | 15.3 | 31 | 18.8 | 26 | 3.4 |
2018 | Arizona | 14.1 | 32 | 22.6 | 16t | 8.5 |
2019 | • Denver | 17.6 | 28 | 20.2 | 28 | 2.6 |
2019 | Chicago | 17.5 | 29 | 23.3 | 22t | 5.8 |
2019 | • Cincinnati | 17.4 | 30 | 19.4 | 29 | 2.0 |
2019 | • NY Jets | 17.3 | 31 | 15.2 | 32 | -2.1 |
2019 | Washington | 16.6 | 32 | 20.9 | 25 | 4.3 |
2020 | Denver | 20.2 | 28 | 19.7 | 23t | -.5 |
2020 | Cincinnati | 19.4 | 29 | 27.1 | 7t | 7.6 |
2020 | • Jacksonville | 19.1 | 30 | 14.9 | 32 | -4.2 |
2020 | • NY Giants | 17.5 | 31 | 15.2 | 31 | -2.3 |
2020 | • NY Jets | 15.2 | 32 | 18.2 | 28 | 3.0 |
2021 | • NY Jets | 18.2 | 28 | 17.4 | 29 | -.8 |
2021 | Carolina | 17.9 | 29 | 20.4 | 20 | 2.5 |
2021 | • Houston | 16.5 | 30 | 17.0 | 30t | .5 |
2021 | NY Giants | 15.2 | 31 | 21.5 | 15t | 6.3 |
2021 | Jacksonville | 14.9 | 32 | 23.8 | 10 | 8.9 |
2022 | Tennessee | 17.5 | 28 | 17.9 | 27 | .4 |
2022 | • NY Jets | 17.4 | 29 | 15.8 | 29 | -1.6 |
2022 | Indianapolis | 17.0 | 30t | 23.3 | 10t | 6.3 |
2022 | Houston | 17.0 | 30t | 22.2 | 13t | 5.2 |
2022 | Denver | 16.9 | 32 | 21.0 | 19 | 4.1 |
2023 | Pittsburgh | 17.9 | 28 | 22.4 | 16 | 4.5 |
2023 | NY Jets | 15.8 | 29 | 19.9 | 24t | 4.1 |
2023 | • NY Giants | 15.6 | 30 | 16.1 | 31 | .4 |
2023 | Carolina | 13.9 | 31t | 20.1 | 23 | 6.2 |
2023 | • New England | 13.9 | 31t | 17.0 | 30 | 3.1 |
2024 | Chicago | 18.2 | 28 | ? | ? | ? |
2024 | Las Vegas | 18.2 | 29 | ? | ? | ? |
2024 | New England | 17.0 | 30 | ? | ? | ? |
2024 | NY Giants | 16.1 | 31 | ? | ? | ? |
2024 | Cleveland | 15.2 | 32 | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan