It doesn’t appear to be a great year for rookie receivers, but if recent history is any indication, it’s a safe bet that at least two will be among the key picks at the position.
Over the last 10 years, 28 wide receivers have finished with top-30 numbers in their first season. That’s using PPR scoring. About three per year. There were four last year, with Brian Thomas, Malik Nabers and Ladd McConkey all finishing with top-15 numbers. (Marvin Harrison was the fourth, but he was a modest disappointment – heavily hyped but finishing 30th at his position.)
Of the 28, note that half (tagged with dots) weren’t first-round picks. I take this as evidence that when a second- or third-round pick catches your eye in August, don’t be hesitant to pull the trigger on him.
| ROOKIE RECEIVERS WITH TOP-30 NUMBERS (last 10 years) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pk | Rec | Yds | TD | Rushing | PPR | Rk |
| 2023 | • Puka Nacua, LAR | 177 | 105 | 1,486 | 6 | 12-89-0 | 298.5 | 4 |
| 2024 | Brian Thomas, Jac. | 23 | 87 | 1,282 | 10 | 6-48-0 | 284.0 | 4 |
| 2021 | Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | 5 | 81 | 1,455 | 13 | 7-21-0 | 306.6 | 5 |
| 2020 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 22 | 88 | 1,400 | 7 | 1-2-0 | 274.2 | 6 |
| 2024 | Malik Nabers, NYG | 6 | 109 | 1,204 | 7 | 5-2-0 | 273.6 | 6 |
| 2016 | • Michael Thomas, N.O. | 47 | 92 | 1,137 | 9 | 0-0-0 | 259.7 | 7 |
| 2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 6 | 104 | 1,015 | 6 | 2-3-1 | 247.8 | 12 |
| 2024 | • Ladd McConkey, LAC | 34 | 82 | 1,149 | 7 | 0-0-0 | 240.9 | 14 |
| 2016 | • Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 165 | 61 | 593 | 6 | 24-267-3 | 219.0 | 18 |
| 2018 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 26 | 64 | 821 | 10 | 6-27-0 | 208.8 | 20 |
| 2017 | • JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 62 | 58 | 917 | 7 | 0-0-0 | 197.7 | 20 |
| 2022 | Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 10 | 83 | 1,103 | 4 | 4-4-0 | 217.7 | 21 |
| 2015 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 4 | 72 | 1,070 | 6 | 3--3-0 | 214.7 | 21 |
| 2021 | • Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 112 | 90 | 912 | 5 | 7-61-1 | 227.3 | 22 |
| 2020 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 17 | 74 | 935 | 5 | 10-82-1 | 219.7 | 22 |
| 2019 | • A.J. Brown, Ten. | 51 | 52 | 1,051 | 8 | 3-60-1 | 217.1 | 22 |
| 2023 | Jordan Addison, Min. | 23 | 70 | 911 | 10 | 1-2-0 | 221.3 | 23 |
| 2020 | • Chase Claypool, Pitt. | 49 | 62 | 873 | 9 | 10-16-2 | 216.9 | 23 |
| 2022 | Chris Olave, N.O. | 11 | 72 | 1,042 | 4 | 0-0-0 | 202.2 | 24 |
| 2023 | • Jayden Reed, G.B. | 50 | 64 | 793 | 8 | 11-119-2 | 217.2 | 25 |
| 2017 | • Cooper Kupp, LAR | 69 | 62 | 869 | 5 | 0-0-0 | 178.9 | 25 |
| 2023 | • Rashee Rice, K.C. | 55 | 79 | 938 | 7 | 1--3-0 | 214.5 | 27 |
| 2020 | • Tee Higgins, Cin. | 33 | 67 | 908 | 6 | 5-28-0 | 196.6 | 28 |
| 2022 | Drake London, Atl. | 8 | 72 | 866 | 4 | 0-0-0 | 184.6 | 28 |
| 2019 | • DK Metcalf, Sea. | 64 | 58 | 900 | 7 | 2-11-0 | 193.1 | 29 |
| 2024 | Marvin Harrison, Ari. | 4 | 62 | 885 | 8 | 0-0-0 | 198.5 | 30 |
| 2019 | • Terry McLaurin, Was. | 76 | 58 | 919 | 7 | 0-0-0 | 191.9 | 30 |
| 2021 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 10 | 64 | 916 | 5 | 0-0-0 | 187.6 | 30 |
As long as we’ve got the stats in front of us, we may as well look at others who at least ranked in the top 50. These guys weren’t necessarily weekly starters, but they were good enough to merit roster spots in typical 12-team leagues. And there are 23 of them. All but eight were players not picked in the first round.
| OTHER ROOKIES IN THE TOP 50 (last 10 years) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pk | Rec | Yds | TD | Rushing | PPR | Rk |
| 2019 | • Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 36 | 57 | 802 | 3 | 14-159-3 | 191.1 | 31 |
| 2023 | Zay Flowers, Balt. | 22 | 77 | 858 | 5 | 8-56-1 | 206.4 | 31 |
| 2024 | Xavier Worthy, K.C. | 28 | 59 | 638 | 6 | 20-104-3 | 187.2 | 33 |
| 2020 | Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. | 25 | 60 | 748 | 5 | 6-77-2 | 184.5 | 35 |
| 2016 | • Sterling Shepard, NYG | 40 | 65 | 683 | 8 | 3-31-0 | 184.4 | 36 |
| 2018 | DJ Moore, Car. | 24 | 55 | 788 | 2 | 13-172-0 | 163.0 | 36 |
| 2019 | • Darius Slayton, NYG | 171 | 48 | 740 | 8 | 0-0-0 | 170.0 | 37 |
| 2019 | • Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 66 | 59 | 680 | 5 | 4-41-0 | 167.1 | 39 |
| 2023 | • Tank Dell, Hou. | 69 | 47 | 709 | 7 | 11-51-0 | 165.0 | 39 |
| 2022 | • George Pickens, Pitt. | 52 | 52 | 801 | 4 | 3-24-1 | 166.5 | 40 |
| 2015 | • Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 69 | 51 | 664 | 6 | 5-20-0 | 167.4 | 41 |
| 2022 | • Christian Watson, G.B. | 34 | 41 | 611 | 7 | 7-80-2 | 164.1 | 42 |
| 2023 | • Josh Downs, Ind. | 79 | 68 | 771 | 2 | 0-0-0 | 157.1 | 44 |
| 2020 | Jerry Jeudy, Den. | 15 | 52 | 856 | 3 | 0-0-0 | 157.6 | 45 |
| 2020 | • Laviska Shenault, Jac. | 42 | 58 | 600 | 5 | 18-91-0 | 157.1 | 46 |
| 2019 | Marquise Brown, Balt. | 25 | 46 | 584 | 7 | 0-0-0 | 146.4 | 46 |
| 2015 | • Stefon Diggs, Min. | 146 | 52 | 720 | 4 | 3-13-0 | 149.3 | 47 |
| 2017 | • Keelan Cole, Jac. | FA | 42 | 748 | 3 | 0-0-0 | 134.8 | 48 |
| 2023 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea. | 20 | 63 | 628 | 4 | 0-0-0 | 149.8 | 48 |
| 2024 | Rome Odunze, Chi. | 9 | 54 | 734 | 3 | 3-15-0 | 146.9 | 49 |
| 2018 | • Courtland Sutton, Den. | 40 | 42 | 704 | 4 | 1--1-0 | 136.3 | 50 |
| 2020 | • Darnell Mooney, Chi. | 173 | 61 | 631 | 4 | 4-20-0 | 152.1 | 50 |
| 2021 | • Elijah Moore, NYJ | 34 | 43 | 538 | 5 | 5-54-1 | 138.2 | 50 |
Identifying the impact rookies is harder. Travis Hunter is a talent, but he’s unpolished and trying to play two positions. Tetairoa McMillan (pictured) was the other receiver selected in the top 10; he could or should quickly become the top pass catcher in Carolina.
With the two other receivers picked in the first round – Emeka Egbuka and Matthew Golden – I’m not confident either will be one of the top 2 wide receivers on their own team. I’ll view Egbuka differently if Chris Godwin has some kind of physical setback.
I am not crazy about any of the four wide receivers selected in the fourth round. Right now, I wouldn’t expect to be picking any of them – Jayden Higgins, Luther Burden, Tre Harris, Jack Bech.
With third-round receivers, you’re down in the area where you want to see something in the preseason. For these guys, I am most excited to get eyes on Kyle Williams (Patriots) and Pat Bryant (Broncos).
—Ian Allan