Jaxson Dart debuted yesterday, putting up a credible performance: 12 of 19 for 154 yards and a touchdown, while also running 3 times for 24 yards. Giants fans are excited. I thought he was OK, but a little more cautious; some patience will be required.
The touchdown pass was a nice throw, though Dart was fortunate not to be intercepted on the previous play. I thought he looked a little unsettled in the pocket, factoring into his runs. That’s fine in fantasy terms, but you also don’t want him leaving too early. Looked like a rookie, which he is.
Dart was selected 25th overall, indicating that there's doubt about his credentials as a future franchise quarterback. Russell Wilson is old ans flawed, but he can manage the offense well enough. I personally believe that not only should Dart sit most of his rookie season, but he probably will.
With the should, we have a couple of recent examples of guys who sat as rookies and it seemed to work out for them. Patrick Mahomes, most notably, but Carson Palmer, Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers all rode the bench to start their careers. Sometimes sitting and watching can benefit a player, or seem to.
But those cases are very much the exception. There have been 76 quarterbacks drafted with first-round picks since 2000. Setting aside guys who got hurt, fewer than 20 percent of those first-rounders actually sat for most of their rookie seasons. About 10 actually rode the bench healthy for the entire year.
Table shows rookie numbers from all the first-round quarterbacks in the last 25 years who attempted fewer than 200 passes in those first seasons, sorted by attempts. Guys who went on to be good or great pros, I've listed in bold. Guys the jury is still out on are in italics.
| FIRST-ROUND QBS ATTEMPTING UNDER 200 PASSES AS ROOKIES, 2000- | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Com | Att | Pct | Yds | TD |
| 2004 | 1 | Eli Manning, NYG | 95 | 197 | 48.2 | 1043 | 6 |
| 2018 | 32 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 99 | 170 | 58.2 | 1201 | 6 |
| 2005 | 1 | Alex Smith, S.F. | 84 | 165 | 50.9 | 875 | 1 |
| 2006 | 11 | Jay Cutler, Den. | 81 | 137 | 59.1 | 1001 | 9 |
| 2001 | 1 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 50 | 113 | 44.2 | 785 | 2 |
| 2024 | 8 | Michael Penix, Atl. | 61 | 105 | 58.1 | 775 | 3 |
| 2023 | 4 | Anthony Richardson, Ind. | 50 | 84 | 59.5 | 577 | 3 |
| 2016 | 26 | Paxton Lynch, Den. | 49 | 83 | 59.0 | 497 | 2 |
| 2010 | 25 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 41 | 82 | 50.0 | 654 | 5 |
| 2003 | 22 | Rex Grossman, Chi. | 38 | 72 | 52.8 | 437 | 2 |
| 2021 | 3 | Trey Lance, S.F. | 41 | 71 | 57.7 | 603 | 5 |
| 2007 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell, Oak. | 36 | 66 | 54.5 | 373 | 2 |
| 2011 | 8 | Jake Locker, Tenn. | 34 | 66 | 51.5 | 542 | 4 |
| 2017 | 10 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 22 | 35 | 62.9 | 284 | 0 |
| 2014 | 22 | Johnny Manziel, Clev. | 18 | 35 | 51.4 | 175 | 0 |
| 2005 | 24 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 9 | 16 | 56.3 | 65 | 0 |
| 2004 | 4 | Philip Rivers, NYG | 5 | 8 | 62.5 | 33 | 1 |
| 2007 | 22 | Brady Quinn, Clev. | 3 | 8 | 37.5 | 45 | 0 |
| 2004 | 22 | J.P. Losman, Buff. | 3 | 5 | 60.0 | 32 | 0 |
| 2003 | 1 | Carson Palmer, Cin. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2005 | 25 | Jason Campbell, Wash. | 0 | 0 | .0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020 | 26 | Jordan Love, G.B. | 0 | 0 | .0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 10 | J.J. McCarthy, Minn. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 1 | Cameron Ward, Ten. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2025 | 25 | Jaxson Dart, NYG | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
By my count, that's 23 first-round quarterbacks since 2000 who attempted fewer than 200 passes as rookies. Jury still out on three of them. Ten that had either some or a lot of NFL success. And 10 that definitely never amounted to anything.
If Dart does wind up sitting most of his rookie year, we've got about as many examples of guys who went on to be good pros as guys who didn't. If he makes a bunch of late-season starts or doesn't, seems like he could still go either way.
I know the Giants' coaches are on the hot seat, so probably they'll be getting Dart into the lineup eventually. Maybe soon, if they listen to the fans.But I do think it will be the second half of the season, maybe late if Wilson (backed by a good defense) can win some games.
--Andy Richardson