Initially when the Packers selected Matthew Golden in the first round, I was kind of lukewarm on him. The talent and the team's interest (their first 1st-rounder at the position since 2002) were plusses, but it's a crowded receiver room. But things are looking up.
Jordan Love has been saying nice things about Golden, that's one plus. The other is that Green Bay's nominal top wide receiver, Jayden Reed, has a foot injury. The Packers say he could miss the start of the season, which probably means he will. They've currently got Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks as the starters on the depth chart at the team website, with Golden a second-teamer, along with Christian Watson (but he's rehabbing a torn ACL).
(Edit: after posting this, I saw a story that Love will undergo surgery to repair a ligament on his left thumb. Non-throwing, but a quarterback needs two thumbs. Hopeful to return next week, should be OK for start of season. But we’ll see. Malik Willis was better than expected in relief a year ago, and the offense might be OK, but if Love misses regular-season time, I will have less interest in Golden for as long as he’s out.)
Golden helped his draft stock by running a 4.29 40 at the combine, having me curious about how other fast wideouts selected early have fared in the NFL. In general, the results aren't encouraging. Various reasons, with some fast guys being used as one-dimensional deep threats in the pros; tough to make a big fantasy impact that way. And looking at the list, it seems (in retrospect) that plenty of guys were overdrafted based on NFL teams getting excited about that speed, anticipating it would translate into success that just didn't happen.
I looked at all the guys since 2000 who ran a sub-4.35 at the combine, then were selected in the first three rounds. That gave me a list of 45 wideouts, with Golden the 46th.
Of those 45 previous guys, just 10 had a top-10 fantasy season at some point in their careers. Two more made it into the top 20. But just over half of them (23) never ranked in the top 40, and seven more didn't make it into the top 25. A couple of those guys (Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell) have just a year under their belts; Worthy can already be called a success story. But roughly half the list didn't amount to much in the NFL, and we can fairly say they were selected too early.
Four wide receivers ran sub-4.35 40s at Indianapolis this year, but only Golden was selected in the first three rounds. (The others: fourth-rounders Chimere Dike, Dont'e Thornton and Jaylin Lane, drafted by the Titans, Raiders and Commanders, respectively. Thornton is intriguing with the Raiders in need of wide receiver weapons; he might start there. But not a great history, even for the earlier picks.)
Table shows draft year, round selected, combine 40 times and stats from their best NFL seasons, sorted by fantasy ranks. Three guys from last year made the list: Worthy, Mitchell and PPR's No. 4 wideout last season, Jacksonville's Brian Thomas.
| FAST 40S, WRS DRAFTED ROUNDS 1-3, 2001-PRESENT | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Rd | 40 | Player | Year | No-Rec-TD | Rk |
| 2007 | 1 | 4.35 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 2012 | 122-1964-5 | 1 |
| 2002 | 1 | 4.35 | Javon Walker, G.B. | 2004 | 89-1382-12 | 3 |
| 2024 | 1 | 4.33 | Brian Thomas, Jac. | 2024 | 87-1282-10 | 4 |
| 2001 | 1 | 4.31 | Santana Moss, Was. | 2005 | 84-1483-9 | 6 |
| 2019 | 2 | 4.33 | DK Metcalf, Sea. | 2020 | 83-1303-10 | 7 |
| 2019 | 3 | 4.35 | Terry McLaurin, Was. | 2024 | 82-1096-13 | 7 |
| 2001 | 2 | 4.33 | Chris Chambers, Mia. | 2005 | 82-1118-11 | 8 |
| 2009 | 3 | 4.33 | Mike Wallace, Pitt. | 2011 | 72-1193-8 | 9 |
| 2014 | 1 | 4.33 | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 2016 | 78-1173-8 | 10 |
| 2008 | 2 | 4.35 | DeSean Jackson, Phil. | 2009 | 62-1156-12 | 10 |
| 2018 | 2 | 4.34 | DJ Chark, Jac. | 2019 | 73-1008-8 | 18 |
| 2014 | 3 | 4.34 | John Brown, Buff. | 2019 | 72-1060-6 | 20 |
| 2002 | 1 | 4.22 | Donte Stallworth, N.O. | 2005 | 70-945-7 | 23 |
| 2017 | 2 | 4.31 | Curtis Samuel, Car. | 2020 | 77-851-5 | 24 |
| 2007 | 3 | 4.35 | Mike Sims-Walker, Jac. | 2009 | 63-869-7 | 24 |
| 2013 | 1 | 4.28 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 2015 | 52-473-10 | 27 |
| 2009 | 1 | 4.30 | Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak. | 2011 | 64-975-4 | 28 |
| 2013 | 3 | 4.27 | Marquise Goodwin, S.F. | 2017 | 56-962-2 | 31 |
| 2016 | 1 | 4.32 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 2020 | 53-879-8 | 32 |
| 2024 | 1 | 4.21 | Xavier Worthy, K.C. | 2024 | 59-638-9 | 33 |
| 2014 | 3 | 4.34 | Donte Moncrief, Ind. | 2015 | 64-733-6 | 37 |
| 2014 | 2 | 4.33 | Paul Richardson, Sea. | 2017 | 44-703-6 | 39 |
| 2015 | 3 | 4.35 | Chris Conley, Jac. | 2019 | 47-775-5 | 44 |
| 2019 | 2 | 4.33 | Mecole Hardman, K.C. | 2021 | 59-693-2 | 47 |
| 2019 | 2 | 4.31 | Parris Campbell, Ind. | 2022 | 63-623-3 | 48 |
| 2008 | 3 | 4.35 | Andre Caldwell, Cin. | 2009 | 51-432-3 | 65 |
| 2015 | 1 | 4.33 | Phillip Dorsett, N.E. | 2019 | 29-397-5 | 71 |
| 2009 | 3 | 4.31 | Deon Butler, Sea. | 2010 | 36-385-4 | 74 |
| 2017 | 1 | 4.22 | John Ross, Cin. | 2019 | 28-506-3 | 74 |
| 2010 | 2 | 4.28 | Arrelious Benn, T.B. | 2011 | 30-441-3 | 81 |
| 2007 | 3 | 4.32 | Jason Hill, S.F. | 2008 | 30-317-2 | 84 |
| 2020 | 1 | 4.27 | Henry Ruggs, L.V. | 2021 | 24-469-2 | 86 |
| 2003 | 2 | 4.34 | Tyrone Calico, Ten. | 2003 | 18-297-4 | 86 |
| 2012 | 3 | 4.34 | T.J. Graham, Buff. | 2012 | 31-322-1 | 88 |
| 2002 | 2 | 4.32 | Tim Carter, NYG | 2006 | 22-253-3 | 90 |
| 2012 | 2 | 4.28 | Stephen Hill, NYJ | 2012 | 21-252-3 | 97 |
| 2022 | 2 | 4.28 | Tyquan Thornton, N.E. | 2022 | 22-247-3 | 98 |
| 2006 | 2 | 4.32 | Chad Jackson, N.E. | 2006 | 13-152-3 | 105 |
| 2024 | 2 | 4.34 | Adonai Mitchell, Ind. | 2024 | 23-312-0 | 110 |
| 2019 | 2 | 4.31 | Andy Isabella, Ari. | 2020 | 21-224-2 | 114 |
| 2015 | 1 | 4.35 | Kevin White, Chi. | 2016 | 19-187-0 | 123 |
| 2022 | 3 | 4.31 | Velus Jones, Chi. | 2022 | 7-107-2 | 126 |
| 2007 | 3 | 4.30 | Yamon Figurs, Balt. | 2007 | 1-36-2 | 142 |
| 2006 | 3 | 4.34 | Willie Reid, Pitt. | 2007 | 4-54-0 | 157 |
| 2022 | 3 | 4.33 | Danny Gray, S.F. | 2022 | 1-10-0 | 206 |
| 2025 | 1 | 4.29 | Matthew Golden, G.B. | ? | ? | ? |
Thomas of course looks great so far, and Worthy might be Kansas City's No. 1 this year, so maybe teams are getting better about scouting these guys. Golden looked solid in the first exhibition; let's see how he fares in the next game.
Regardless, the Reed uncertainty creates a pretty significant opportunity for the rookie. Maybe he'll get off to a, er, fast start.
--Andy Richardson