Teams didn't play a lot of starters (or even key backups) in last night's Titans-Falcons game. But Tennessee put No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward on the field for three series, so there was that to watch. So far, so good.
Looking at the box score you wouldn't be impressed: 2 of 7 for 42 yards. But one completion was a play where he rolled out and completed a pass downfield that ended up going for 35 yards. And a couple of plays later he dropped one over the top of the defense to Van Jefferson downfield, hitting him in both hands (but Jefferson couldn't reel it in). Both nice, accurate throws highlighting his arm strength.
To me the intangibles stand out more. He looked comfortable, relaxed. Ward started 38 games for Washington State and Miami the last three years, and that experience shows up. We saw it with Bo Nix last year. Now granted, Atlanta wasn't using any starters on defense last night, so Ward having a mostly clean pocket like he did last night won't be happening as often. Worse, the Titans open at Denver, which led the league in sacks last season. Ouch.
Now whether Ward will be a viable starter in fantasy leagues, that's less likely this year. In Superflex perhaps. But better to be thinking long-term.
In the last 10 years, eight quarterbacks have been drafted at No. 1 overall. They usually start right away: Six of them have started at least 13 games their rookie seasons. One of the two exceptions (Joe Burrow; the other was Jared Goff) didn't only because he got hurt.
Only two of those previous eight finished in the top 15 at the position as rookies. Those first-year numbers are shown below. (Scoring system: 4-point TD passes, 6-point TD runs, 1 point for every 20 passing and 10 rushing yards.)
| TOP-PICK QBS, ROOKIE NUMBERS (2015-2024) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | GS | Pass | TD | Run | TD | Rk |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | 16 | 3722 | 20 | 544 | 4 | 6 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 4042 | 22 | 213 | 6 | 13 |
| 2024 | Caleb Williams, Chi. | 17 | 3541 | 20 | 489 | 0 | 16 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 13 | 3725 | 27 | 131 | 0 | 17 |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 17 | 3641 | 12 | 334 | 2 | 22 |
| 2023 | Bryce Young, Car. | 16 | 2877 | 11 | 253 | 0 | 23 |
| 2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 10 | 2688 | 13 | 142 | 3 | 25 |
| 2016 | Jared Goff, LAR | 7 | 1089 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 37 |
So odds are heavily against Ward being usable in 1-QB redraft leagues this season; best-case scenario is probably a No. 2, or serviceable starter in SuperFlex.
But in dynasty? Things start to look better, and I'm wishing I'd taken him in my rookie draft at this point (he went at 2.06). Six of those past eight quarterbacks have had at least one top-10 fantasy season; five have had multiple such campaigns. The two exceptions, Bryce Young and Caleb Williams, have only two and one seasons on their resumes so far, so there's plenty of time for them to get there.
| TOP-PICK QBS, TOP-10 SEASONS (2015-2024) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | GS | Pass | TD | Run | TD | Rk |
| 2020 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | 16 | 3971 | 26 | 819 | 11 | 2 |
| 2019 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 5109 | 33 | 250 | 1 | 2 |
| 2024 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 17 | 4918 | 43 | 201 | 2 | 2 |
| 2024 | Baker Mayfield, T.B. | 17 | 4500 | 41 | 378 | 3 | 3 |
| 2022 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 16 | 4475 | 35 | 257 | 5 | 4 |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | 16 | 3722 | 20 | 544 | 4 | 6 |
| 2018 | Jared Goff, LAR | 16 | 4688 | 32 | 108 | 2 | 6 |
| 2023 | Jared Goff, Det. | 17 | 4575 | 30 | 21 | 2 | 6 |
| 2024 | Jared Goff, Det. | 17 | 4629 | 37 | 56 | 0 | 6 |
| 2021 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 16 | 4611 | 34 | 118 | 2 | 7 |
| 2022 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 17 | 4113 | 25 | 291 | 5 | 7 |
| 2016 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 4090 | 28 | 165 | 1 | 9 |
| 2024 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | 17 | 3851 | 21 | 572 | 5 | 9 |
| 2022 | Jared Goff, Det. | 17 | 4438 | 29 | 73 | 0 | 9 |
| 2023 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 16 | 4016 | 21 | 339 | 4 | 10 |
All of those players can't be deemed successes. Jameis Winston, as a for instance, did not live up to expectations for the Bucs. Jared Goff has been a lot better in Detroit's offense than he ever was with the Rams.
But in general, Titans fans have reason to think Ward will eventually be a successful player for them. Looks good in his limited preseason action (and unlikely he plays in the final exhibition).
--Andy Richardson