I’m not a big Alvin Kamara fan. He’s 30, and he’ll have to overcome playing on what might be the league’s worst team. The Saints currently are 300-1 to win the Super Bowl, the longest odds of any team.
New Orleans went 3-12 down the stretch last year, and nothing that happened in the offseason suggests they’re going to turn things around. They’ll be using some combination of Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener at quarterback.
Tough to envision Kamara putting up big numbers with that kind of cast around him.
In the last 10 years, 150 running backs have finished with top-15 numbers (which is what you would be hoping for from Kamara). Only 11 of those players came from teams that won four games or less. (Four of those 11 finished with top-10 numbers).
Another nine backs from teams that won five games is in that group, including five who finished with top-10 numbers. So it can be done, but it’s not common.
The best thing Kamara has going for him is his effectiveness as a pass catcher. He’s averaged 5 catches per game over his career, giving him a nice floor in PPR formats. Kamara and Christian McCaffrey both came into the league in 2017, and Kamara over the last eight years has caught 49 more passes. Of the 20 running backs listed below, half finished with at least 400 receiving yards (including Kamara last year).
But I’m a little lower than most on Kamara.
| GOOD RUNNING BACKS ON BAD TEAMS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | PPR | Rk | W-L |
| 2015 | Danny Woodhead, S.D. | 336 | 755 | 1,091 | 9 | 243.1 | 3 | 4-12 |
| 2015 | Darren McFadden, Dall. | 1,089 | 328 | 1,417 | 3 | 201.7 | 13 | 4-12 |
| 2016 | Melvin Gordon, S.D. | 997 | 419 | 1,416 | 12 | 254.6 | 7 | 5-11 |
| 2016 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 885 | 327 | 1,212 | 6 | 200.2 | 15 | 4-12 |
| 2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 1,313 | 298 | 1,611 | 7 | 232.1 | 10 | 3-13 |
| 2016 | Isaiah Crowell, Cle. | 952 | 319 | 1,271 | 7 | 209.1 | 14 | 1-15 |
| 2017 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 1,122 | 125 | 1,247 | 9 | 201.7 | 15 | 5-11 |
| 2017 | Duke Johnson, Cle. | 348 | 693 | 1,041 | 7 | 220.1 | 11 | 0-16 |
| 2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1,307 | 721 | 2,028 | 15 | 385.8 | 2 | 5-11 |
| 2018 | David Johnson, Ari. | 940 | 446 | 1,386 | 10 | 250.6 | 9 | 3-13 |
| 2019 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 1,387 | 1,005 | 2,392 | 19 | 471.2 | 1 | 5-11 |
| 2019 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 557 | 993 | 1,550 | 11 | 313.0 | 4 | 5-11 |
| 2019 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1,003 | 438 | 1,441 | 8 | 244.1 | 11 | 4-12 |
| 2019 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 1,137 | 287 | 1,424 | 8 | 225.4 | 13 | 2-14 |
| 2020 | Mike Davis, Car. | 642 | 373 | 1,015 | 8 | 208.5 | 12 | 5-11 |
| 2020 | Melvin Gordon, Den. | 986 | 158 | 1,144 | 10 | 206.4 | 13 | 5-11 |
| 2020 | James Robinson, Jac. | 1,070 | 344 | 1,414 | 10 | 252.4 | 7 | 1-15 |
| 2021 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | 617 | 452 | 1,069 | 7 | 210.9 | 15 | 3-13-1 |
| 2024 | • Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 950 | 543 | 1,493 | 8 | 265.3 | 9 | 5-12 |
| 2024 | Chuba Hubbard, Car. | 1,195 | 171 | 1,366 | 11 | 247.6 | 13 | 5-12 |
—Ian Allan