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Egbuka to the moon

Rookie (and other 1st-rounders) looking like immediate factors

It didn't seem like an especially great draft class of wide receivers. Yes there were two top-10 picks, but Hunter-McMillan wasn't as exciting as say Chase-Waddle, London-Wilson or Harrison-Nabers. And a couple seemed to be blocked. But those first-rounders sure look good today.

There were four selected in the first round: Travis Hunter, Tetairoa McMillan, Emeka Egbuka and Matthew Golden. Egbuka, most notably, seemed in danger of being the No. 4 in Tampa Bay. But not today.

Chris Godwin (ankle) had a second surgery this offseason and could begin the season on the PUP list, requiring him to miss the first four games. Jalen McMillan (neck) is expected to open the season on IR, and Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times speculates that McMillan will be out through the team's Week 9 bye. Egbuka opening as one of the top 2 receivers in an offense that a year ago was 3rd in passing? At this point, it seems likely.

Hunter and McMillan were already expected to start, the No. 2 and No. 1, respectively, in Jacksonville and Carolina's offenses. And with Golden, who by all account has had a strong preseason, you have Green Bay's other presumed top wideout Jayden Reed in a walking boot with a sprained foot, and he's no lock to be healthy for the start of the season either. Green Bay has several other capable wideouts, but Golden opening as the No. 1 or 2 there would not be surprising.

Hunter and McMillan have been selected earliest to this point, around 28-30th in PPR, according to ADP data. With this news, barring some really positive news on Godwin in the next week, I think I'd draft Egbuka before either of them.

In the last 10 years, there have been 45 first-round wide receivers drafted into the NFL. Only five of those guys have put up top-12 numbers in PPR leagues in their rookie seasons, but two did it last year -- Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers. Six others finished in the top 25, so about 25 percent odds of first-round wideouts being top-25 players in their rookie seasons. Looking at 2025's four first-rounders, I think it's very possible they beat those odds, and put at least 2 players in the top 25. And I think all four might emerge as starters in typical leagues.

Table shows the first-year numbers of those first-round wideouts from the last 10 years, sorted by ranking in PPR leagues.

FIRST-ROUND WIDE RECEIVERS, ROOKIE NUMBERS (2015-2024)
YearPkPlayerTgtRecYdsTDRk
202423Brian Thomas, Jac.133871282104
20215Ja'Marr Chase, Cin.128811455135
20246Malik Nabers, NYG170109120476
202022Justin Jefferson, Min.12588140076
20216Jaylen Waddle, Mia.1401041015712
201826Calvin Ridley, Atl.92648211020
202210Garrett Wilson, NYJ147831103421
20154Amari Cooper, Oak.130721070621
202017CeeDee Lamb, Dall.11174935722
202323Jordan Addison, Min.108709111023
202211Chris Olave, N.O.119721042424
20228Drake London, Atl.11772866428
20244Marvin Harrison, Ari.11662885830
202110DeVonta Smith, Phil.10464916530
202322Zay Flowers, Balt.10877858631
202428Xavier Worthy, K.C.9859638933
202025Brandon Aiyuk, S.F.9660748735
201824DJ Moore, Car.8255788236
202015Jerry Jeudy, Den.11352856345
201925Marquise Brown, Balt.7146584746
202320Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea.9363628448
20249Rome Odunze, Chi.10154734349
202216Jahan Dotson, Was.6135523751
202432Xavier Legette, Car.8449497461
201621Will Fuller, Hou.9247635361
202127Rashod Bateman, Balt.6846515170
202321Quentin Johnston, LAC6738431274
202218Treylon Burks, Ten.5433444278
201514DeVante Parker, Mia.5026494378
202431Ricky Pearsall, S.F.4631400382
201615Corey Coleman, Cle.7333413383
20175Corey Davis, Ten.6534375085
202120Kadarius Toney, NYG5739420089
202012Henry Ruggs, L.V.4326452289
202021Jalen Reagor, Phil.5431396291
201520Nelson Agholor, Phil.44232831101
201529Phillip Dorsett, Ind.39182251110
201932N'Keal Harry, N.E.24121052124
20177Mike Williams (Clemson), LAC2311950139
202212Jameson Williams, Det.91411158
201622Josh Doctson, Was.62660170
201623Laquon Treadwell, Min.31150188
20179John Ross, Cin.2000199
201526Breshad Perriman, Balt.0000999
20157Kevin White, Chi.0000999
20252Travis Hunter, Jac.?????
20258Tetairoa McMillan, Car.?????
202519Emeka Egbuka, T.B.?????
202523Matthew Golden, G.B.?????

--Andy Richardson

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