A field of Pros and Readers went head-to-head to test the limits of value drafting vs over spending for juiced position groups. Who came out ahead? Let’s review the wide receivers.
Our Drafters are, from Fantasy Index, Ian Allan, Andy Richardson and myself, Ben Prator. Jerry Donabedian from Rotowire and Shane Hallam from Draft Sharks joined in as well as several long time Fantasy Index subscribers and members of the Fantasy Index Discord.
The table below shows the players, price and price/proj which estimates the cost of every 10 projected points for that player. Players who went at or below their Fantasy Index projected auction value are in bold. Players marked with an asterisk are significantly over or under their projected value, 40% or more.
| Auction Mock – Wide Recievers | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Order | Name | Winning Bid | Price/Proj | Drafter |
| 2 | Demario Douglas | $2.00 | $0.12 | Ernie Freund |
| 5 | Jakobi Meyers | $8.00 | $0.37 | Ernie Freund |
| 11 | Courtland Sutton | $15.00 | $0.61 | Micheal Moriarty |
| 12 | Ja'marr Chase | $35.00 | $0.96 | Ben Prator |
| 15 | Zay Flowers | $10.00 | $0.46 | Shane Hallam |
| 16 | Travis Hunter | $9.00 | $0.43 | Micheal Moriarty |
| 20 | Malik Nabers* | $27.00 | $1.03 | BreeceIndex |
| 21 | Garrett Wilson* | $18.00 | $0.79 | Ben Prator |
| 23 | Justin Jefferson* | $30.00 | $1.14 | Chuck Anderson |
| 26 | Luther Burden | $2.00 | $0.25 | Bryce Emmanuel |
| 27 | Ladd McConkey* | $19.00 | $0.82 | Chuck Anderson |
| 28 | Calvin Ridley | $7.00 | $0.30 | Shane Hallam |
| 30 | CeeDee Lamb* | $24.00 | $0.86 | Andy Richardson |
| 33 | DJ Moore | $13.00 | $0.54 | Don McCown |
| 36 | Rashee Rice | $9.00 | $0.46 | Jerry Donabedian |
| 38 | Jayden HIggins* | $2.00 | $0.18 | Ben Prator |
| 39 | Stefon Diggs | $4.00 | $0.23 | Andy Richardson |
| 40 | Terry McLaurin | $14.00 | $0.58 | Ian Allan |
| 42 | Nico Collins* | $24.00 | $0.89 | Jerry Donabedian |
| 46 | Amon-Ra St.Brown | $21.00 | $0.77 | Ernie Freund |
| 47 | Puka Nacua* | $23.00 | $0.84 | Ernie Freund |
| 48 | Brian Thomas | $20.00 | $0.74 | Jerry Donabedian |
| 51 | A.J. Brown* | $17.00 | $0.73 | Shane Hallam |
| 52 | George Pickens | $8.00 | $0.42 | Jerry Donabedian |
| 55 | Marvin Harrison | $13.00 | $0.55 | Ian Allan |
| 57 | Devonta Smith | $11.00 | $0.46 | Ian Allan |
| 58 | Drake London | $17.00 | $0.66 | Bryce Emmanuel |
| 64 | Deebo Samuel | $5.00 | $0.28 | Andy Richardson |
| 66 | Tee Higgins | $12.00 | $0.47 | Don McCown |
| 67 | Tyreek Hill | $13.00 | $0.51 | Shane Hallam |
| 69 | Chris Olave | $5.00 | $0.29 | Bryce Emmanuel |
| 72 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | $12.00 | $0.51 | BreeceIndex |
| 80 | Davante Adams | $11.00 | $0.46 | Don McCown |
| 81 | Rome Odunze | $4.00 | $0.23 | Ian Allan |
| 84 | Mike Evans | $8.00 | $0.35 | Ian Allan |
| 88 | Josh Downs* | $2.00 | $0.15 | BreeceIndex |
| 89 | Jameson Williams* | $5.00 | $0.22 | Bryce Emmanuel |
| 90 | DK Metcalf | $7.00 | $0.31 | Don McCown |
| 96 | Tetairoa McMillan* | $2.00 | $0.10 | Shane Hallam |
| 99 | Jayden Reed | $2.00 | $0.13 | Chuck Anderson |
| 101 | Khalil Shakir | $6.00 | $0.31 | Ben Prator |
| 104 | Jaylen Waddle | $6.00 | $0.27 | Shane Hallam |
| 105 | Xavier Worthy* | $5.00 | $0.21 | Ian Allan |
| 107 | Jerry Jeudy* | $3.00 | $0.14 | Andy Richardson |
| 108 | Jordan Addison | $3.00 | $0.17 | Andy Richardson |
| 114 | Chris Godwin* | $2.00 | $0.14 | Bryce Emmanuel |
| 115 | Jauan Jennings | $2.00 | $0.12 | Ernie Freund |
| 117 | Cooper Kupp | $2.00 | $0.14 | Don McCown |
| 119 | Matthew Golden* | $1.00 | $0.05 | Jerry Donabedian |
| 121 | Ricky Pearsall* | $1.00 | $0.05 | Bryce Emmanuel |
| 123 | Darnell Mooney* | $1.00 | $0.05 | Ben Prator |
| 124 | Brandon Aiyuk | $1.00 | $0.09 | Richard Micheli |
| 129 | Christian Kirk* | $1.00 | $0.06 | Chuck Anderson |
| 131 | Emeka Egbuka | $1.00 | $0.07 | Don McCown |
| 133 | Michael Pittman* | $1.00 | $0.06 | Richard Micheli |
| 134 | Rashod Bateman* | $1.00 | $0.06 | Micheal Moriarty |
| 135 | Rashid Shaheed | $1.00 | $0.07 | BreeceIndex |
| 137 | Keon Coleman* | $1.00 | $0.06 | Chuck Anderson |
| 141 | Marvin Mims* | $1.00 | $0.06 | BreeceIndex |
| 150 | Tre Harris | $1.00 | $0.00 | Richard Micheli |
| 151 | Pat Bryant | $1.00 | $0.21 | Micheal Moriarty |
| 153 | Kyle Williams | $1.00 | $0.11 | Richard Micheli |
| 154 | Jack Bech | $1.00 | $0.00 | Micheal Moriarty |
| 156 | Marquise Brown | $1.00 | $0.10 | Richard Micheli |
Values were more scattered for receivers but there is still a clear gradation from mostly overpays to mostly values starting at the 57th overall pick. This shift happened a bit earlier than at running back where the values started at the 73rd overall pick. Eight of the top 24 projected receivers went at or below their projected auction values, which is stingier than the backs who had ten values in the top 24 but two players from the top 12 went for under their projected price, Tee Higgins and Tyreek Hill, compared to just one back. In this mock 11 of our 12 teams fit into our categories: Value Drafters, Hybrid Drafters and Big Spenders. This table summarizes the averages of each type of drafter:
| Auction Mock – WR – Summary | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Combined Averages - Starters | |||||||
| Winning Bid | 25' Proj | Price/Proj | |||||
| Value Drafters | $12.30 | 238.50 | $0.52 | ||||
| Hybrid Drafters | $13.17 | 243.64 | $0.52 | ||||
| Big Spenders | $22.90 | 267.05 | $0.85 | ||||
| Combined Averages - Depth | |||||||
| Winning Bid | 25' Proj | Price/Proj | |||||
| Value Drafters | $4.91 | 180.75 | $0.24 | ||||
| Hybrid Drafters | $4.27 | 180.45 | $0.23 | ||||
| Big Spenders | $3.13 | 169.64 | $0.17 | ||||
| Combined Averages - Total | |||||||
| Winning Bid | 25' Proj | Price/Proj | |||||
| Value Drafters | $7.53 | 201.13 | $0.33 | ||||
| Hybrid Drafters | $7.41 | 202.75 | $0.33 | ||||
| Big Spenders | $11.04 | 208.60 | $0.44 | ||||
Jerry Donabedian was a value drafter for running backs but spent big on Nico Collins at $24 and Brian Thomas at $20 resulting in the 3rd highest average winning bid for his starters. His starting backs were the least expensive in the league and projected for the second lowest average points. Despite being the 2nd biggest spender at receiver, the projections have this roster with the 10th most projected points among the starters and 6th most overall including the running backs. Here is a look at his roster across these position groups:
| Jerry Donabedian | ||
|---|---|---|
| Most Expensive WR, Least Expensive RB | ||
| Starters | ||
| Name | Winning Bid | Price/Proj |
| Nico Collins* | $24.00 | $0.89 |
| Brian Thomas | $20.00 | $0.74 |
| James Conner | $9.00 | $0.46 |
| RJ Harvey* | $7.00 | $0.42 |
| Depth | ||
| Matthew Golden* | $1.00 | $0.05 |
| Rashee Rice | $9.00 | $0.46 |
| George Pickens | $8.00 | $0.42 |
| Trey Benson* | $1.00 | $0.07 |
| Kaleb Johnson* | $3.00 | $0.21 |
| Bhayshul Tuten* | $1.00 | $0.07 |
| Ray Davis | $1.00 | $0.09 |
| Total | $84.00 | |
| Average | $7.64 | $0.35 |
Bryce Emmanuel went the opposite direction. He was a big spender at running back averaging the 2nd highest winning bid for his starters. At receiver he took a hybrid approach making a minor overpay to get Drake London as his WR1 then getting good value for his WR2, Jameson Williams and picking up Ricky Pearsall for $1. The result is a receiver group with the 9th highest projections from his starters but combined with his overpowered running backs Bryce is projected for the 5th most points overall and has the highest projections for his starters. Here’s a look at Bryce’s team so far:
| Bryce Emmanuel | ||
|---|---|---|
| Highest Starter Projection, 10th highest Depth | ||
| Starters | ||
| Name | Winning Bid | Price/Proj |
| Drake London | $17.00 | $0.66 |
| Jameson Williams* | $5.00 | $0.22 |
| Bijan Robinson * | $34.00 | $1.10 |
| Devon Achane * | $21.00 | $0.83 |
| Depth | ||
| Ricky Pearsall* | $1.00 | $0.05 |
| Chris Olave | $5.00 | $0.29 |
| Chris Godwin* | $2.00 | $0.14 |
| Luther Burden | $2.00 | $0.25 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson * | $1.00 | $0.07 |
| Tyler Allgeier | $1.00 | $0.08 |
| Dylan Sampson | $1.00 | $0.10 |
| Total | $90.00 | |
| Average | $8.18 | $0.34 |
Andy Richardson stuck to his hybrid approach of picking his spots to reach and filling in with value for depth. His lone significant overpay so far is $24 to land CeeDee Lamb as his WR1. His lone significant value pick is Jerry Jeudy as his WR2. Between receivers and backs Andy has the 2nd highest projections for his starters as well as the 2nd highest overall number. His receiver group is the 9th most expensive, and his backs were the 4th most. Here’s a look at the most balanced roster in this draft:
| Andy Richardson | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2nd Highest Starter Projection, 2nd highest Depth | ||
| Starters | ||
| Name | Winning Bid | Price/Proj |
| CeeDee Lamb* | $24.00 | $0.86 |
| Jerry Jeudy* | $3.00 | $0.14 |
| Kyren Williams | $18.00 | $0.66 |
| Bucky Irving | $18.00 | $0.66 |
| Depth | ||
| Deebo Samuel | $5.00 | $0.28 |
| Stefon Diggs | $4.00 | $0.23 |
| Jordan Addison | $3.00 | $0.17 |
| Isiah Pacheco | $6.00 | $0.28 |
| Javonte Williams | $3.00 | $0.18 |
| Total | $84.00 | |
| Average | $9.33 | $0.38 |
Ian Allan also stuck to his guns in this draft. He’s the only drafter to have exclusively pursued value at both positions. His receivers are the 8th most expensive with the 2nd highest projected score but his starting receivers have just the 10th highest total. His depth is staggering, based on projections Mike Evans is his WR5! His backs are the 8th most expensive group, and they have the 3rd most projected points. Overall, this roster has the highest projected points. Here’s a look at Ian’s top scoring but not top-heavy roster so far:
| Ian Allan | ||
|---|---|---|
| Highest Overall Projected Points | ||
| Starters | ||
| Name | Winning Bid | Price/Proj |
| Devonta Smith | $11.00 | $0.46 |
| Terry McLaurin | $14.00 | $0.58 |
| James Cook | $7.00 | $0.30 |
| Alvin Kamara | $7.00 | $0.32 |
| Depth | ||
| Marvin Harrison | $13.00 | $0.55 |
| Xavier Worthy* | $5.00 | $0.21 |
| Mike Evans | $8.00 | $0.35 |
| Rome Odunze | $4.00 | $0.23 |
| Jaylen Warren * | $3.00 | $0.16 |
| Chuba Hubbard | $11.00 | $0.53 |
| Total | $83.00 | |
| Average | $8.30 | $0.37 |
Which of these five rosters would you choose? Keeping in mind that these drafters will need to start two of their depth players at flex, do you think it’s worth it to spend for multiple players who are going in the first or second round of snake drafts? Or do you think Ian’s patient approach to scooping up value is most likely to result in a championship? There is a limited supply of elite players and whether you wait or spend early the board can get away from you if you don’t have some idea of how you want your team to turn out. Personally, I’m going to be trying to channel Andy in my final auction draft this evening. Running back is crucial this year and landing two starting backs on powerful offenses and one top receiver for about 60% of your budget seems like a great start but only if you’re confident in finding value late.