A field of Pros and Readers went head-to-head to test the limits of value drafting vs over spending for juiced position groups. Who came out ahead? Let’s review the wide receivers.
Our Drafters are, from Fantasy Index, Ian Allan, Andy Richardson and myself, Ben Prator. Jerry Donabedian from Rotowire and Shane Hallam from Draft Sharks joined in as well as several long time Fantasy Index subscribers and members of the Fantasy Index Discord.
The table below shows the players, price and price/proj which estimates the cost of every 10 projected points for that player. Players who went at or below their Fantasy Index projected auction value are in bold. Players marked with an asterisk are significantly over or under their projected value, 40% or more.
| Auction Mock – Quarterbacks | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Order | Name | Winning Bid | Price/Proj | Drafter |
| 1 | Josh Allen | $15.00 | $0.37 | Jerry Donabedian |
| 18 | Jayden Daniels | $13.00 | $0.32 | Shane Hallam |
| 22 | Lamar Jackson | $13.00 | $0.31 | Chuck Anderson |
| 25 | Jalen Hurts | $11.00 | $0.27 | Ian Allan |
| 34 | Joe Burrow | $17.00 | $0.41 | Don McCown |
| 37 | Justin Herbert* | $6.00 | $0.18 | Micheal Moriarty |
| 41 | Patrick Mahomes | $6.00 | $0.16 | Ben Prator |
| 49 | Bo Nix | $7.00 | $0.19 | Andy Richardson |
| 53 | Baker Mayfield | $6.00 | $0.18 | Richard Micheli |
| 61 | J.J. McCarthy | $2.00 | $0.06 | Don McCown |
| 79 | Kyler Murray | $3.00 | $0.09 | Andy Richardson |
| 103 | Drake Maye* | $1.00 | $0.03 | Ernie Freund |
| 140 | Jared Goff* | $1.00 | $0.03 | Micheal Moriarty |
| 144 | Brock Purdy* | $1.00 | $0.03 | Bryce Emmanuel |
| 145 | Dak Prescott* | $1.00 | $0.03 | Richard Micheli |
| 147 | Justin Fields | $1.00 | $0.03 | BreeceIndex |
| 155 | C.J. Stroud* | $1.00 | $0.03 | BreeceIndex |
| Auction Mock - Tight Ends | ||||
| Order | Name | Winning Bid | Price/Proj | Drafter |
| 9 | Brock Bowers* | $21.00 | $0.88 | BreeceIndex |
| 14 | Dallas Goedert | $3.00 | $0.17 | Andy Richardson |
| 17 | Travis Kelce | $6.00 | $0.31 | Chuck Anderson |
| 19 | Trey McBride | $18.00 | $0.68 | Richard Micheli |
| 59 | George Kittle | $9.00 | $0.43 | Bryce Emmanuel |
| 60 | Sam LaPorta | $7.00 | $0.33 | Don McCown |
| 70 | T.J. Hockenson | $5.00 | $0.28 | Don McCown |
| 71 | Tyler Warren | $2.00 | $0.13 | BreeceIndex |
| 78 | Evan Engram | $3.00 | $0.18 | Andy Richardson |
| 82 | Mark Andrews | $4.00 | $0.22 | Ian Allan |
| 83 | Jake Ferguson | $2.00 | $0.12 | Ian Allan |
| 91 | Mason Taylor | $1.00 | $0.10 | Ernie Freund |
| 92 | David Njoku | $4.00 | $0.22 | Shane Hallam |
| 95 | Kyle Pitts | $1.00 | $0.08 | Micheal Moriarty |
| 132 | Colston Loveland | $1.00 | $0.09 | Ben Prator |
| 136 | Tucker Kraft* | $1.00 | $0.06 | Jerry Donabedian |
| 139 | Jonnu Smith | $1.00 | $0.08 | Richard Micheli |
| 143 | Dalton Kincaid | $1.00 | $0.06 | Chuck Anderson |
Not surprisingly value was far more common in this last position group. Joe Burrow drew a bit of a bidding war as the last of the Tier 1 quarterbacks to be nominated. Brock Bowers and Trey McBride both drew aggressive bids but the rest of this group went for reasonable prices. Dak Prescott was a major steal for $1.00. To finish up our examination of Value, Hybrid and Big Spender approaches to the draft let's consider three rosters that typified each approach and had strong results in their own way. First, here is a final break down of how cost, projections and efficency of our three types of drafters. (Drafters here are broken into groups of four based on how much they spent on their starters).
| Auction Mock – Overall – Summary | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Combined Averages - Starters | |||
| Winning Bid | 25' Proj | Price/Proj | |
| Value Drafters | $10.46 | 244.08 | $0.09 |
| Hybrid Drafters | $12.83 | 244.48 | $0.10 |
| Big Spenders | $14.67 | 250.40 | $0.10 |
The overall result is less dramatic differentiation in spending and projections that the position group analysis showed but bear in mind that the numbers listed above are per player. Big Spenders averaged +6.32 points per player more than Value Drafters, which would be a total of 82.16 points across the season in this format.
| Ian Allan | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Order | Pos | Player | Winning Bid | Price/Proj |
| 25 | QB | Jalen Hurts | $11.00 | $0.27 |
| 75 | RB | James Cook | $7.00 | $0.30 |
| 77 | RB | Alvin Kamara | $7.00 | $0.32 |
| 57 | WR | Devonta Smith | $11.00 | $0.46 |
| 40 | WR | Terry McLaurin | $14.00 | $0.58 |
| 82 | TE | Mark Andrews | $4.00 | $0.22 |
| 55 | DEPTH | Marvin Harrison | $13.00 | $0.55 |
| 105 | DEPTH | Xavier Worthy* | $5.00 | $0.21 |
| 84 | DEPTH | Mike Evans | $8.00 | $0.35 |
| 97 | DEPTH | Chuba Hubbard | $11.00 | $0.53 |
| 85 | DEPTH | Jaylen Warren* | $3.00 | $0.16 |
| 81 | DEPTH | Rome Odunze | $4.00 | $0.23 |
| 83 | DEPTH | Jake Ferguson | $2.00 | $0.12 |
As you can see from all the bold face in Ian’s chart, he won almost all his players at or below their projected value. Terry McLaurin, Marvin Harrison and Chuba Hubbard were modest overpays that left him in great position to rake in value later. Ian’s bench is absurdly deep with Mike Evans and Chuba Hubbard projected as his top bench players. Overall, he has the 2nd most projected points in the draft with 2973.22 and he had the second lowest price per 10 projected points at $0.34 per. The downside of this approach is the lack of top end talent outside of Jalen Hurts. His starters are projected for the 6th most points but he paid just $54 for them, the lowest cost in the league.
| Andy Richardson | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Order | Pos | Player | Winning Bid | Price/Proj |
| 49 | QB | Bo Nix | $7.00 | $0.19 |
| 44 | RB | Bucky Irving | $18.00 | $0.66 |
| 32 | RB | Kyren Williams | $18.00 | $0.66 |
| 14 | TE | Dallas Goedert | $3.00 | $0.17 |
| 30 | WR | CeeDee Lamb* | $24.00 | $0.86 |
| 107 | WR | Jerry Jeudy* | $3.00 | $0.14 |
| 100 | DEPTH | Isiah Pacheco | $6.00 | $0.28 |
| 64 | DEPTH | Deebo Samuel | $5.00 | $0.28 |
| 39 | DEPTH | Stefon Diggs | $4.00 | $0.23 |
| 108 | DEPTH | Jordan Addison | $3.00 | $0.17 |
| 102 | DEPTH | Javonte Williams | $3.00 | $0.18 |
| 78 | DEPTH | Evan Engram | $3.00 | $0.18 |
| 79 | DEPTH | Kyler Murray | $3.00 | $0.09 |
Similar to Ian’s roster Andy Richardson paid less than projected values for most of his players, but he did break from projections to add some 1st and 2nd rounders with CeeDee Lamb, Bucky Irving and Kyren Williams. His depth starts strong with Isiah Pacheco and Deebo Samuel projected as his flex players and Stefon Diggs and Javonte Williams starting the season at the top of his bench. Not as impressive as Ian’s depth but somewhat offset by having amassed the 2nd highest projected total from his starters in the league. Overall, Andy’s roster has the highest total projections, but having a 2nd quarterback on his bench gives him a leg up and he only cleared Ian by about 26 points. Having reliable production from Lamb and the combo of Irving/Williams is certainly attractive but would you rather that or Ian’s elite bench depth?
| Chuck Anderson | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Order | Pos | Player | Winning Bid | Price/Proj |
| 22 | QB | Lamar Jackson | $13.00 | $0.31 |
| 35 | RB | Derrick Henry | $20.00 | $0.74 |
| 111 | RB | Tony Pollard* | $3.00 | $0.15 |
| 17 | TE | Travis Kelce | $6.00 | $0.31 |
| 23 | WR | Justin Jefferson* | $30.00 | $1.14 |
| 27 | WR | Ladd McConkey* | $19.00 | $0.82 |
| 110 | DEPTH | Brian Robinson* | $2.00 | $0.11 |
| 129 | DEPTH | Christian Kirk* | $1.00 | $0.06 |
| 137 | DEPTH | Keon Coleman* | $1.00 | $0.06 |
| 143 | DEPTH | Dalton Kincaid | $1.00 | $0.06 |
| 99 | DEPTH | Jayden Reed | $2.00 | $0.13 |
| 148 | DEPTH | Jaylen Wright | $1.00 | $0.10 |
| 120 | DEPTH | Tank Bigsby | $1.00 | $0.11 |
Chuck got into the mix early and often spending $91on five players in the first 35 nominations. That’s the most any drafter spent on his starters. He ended up stacking Lamar Jackson with Derrick Henry which locks up most of the Ravens rushing yards and touchdowns which is still elite even if the stack itself isn’t very helpful. His receiver combo of Justin Jefferson and Ladd McConkey is one of the best in the league. Getting Tony Pollard as his RB2 is solid considering how cash strapped Chuck was early. He has some bench piece that could hit in Christian Kirk and Keon Coleman but he’s going to need luck to get much use from the rest of his bench. Chuck ended up with the 3rd most projected points from his starters and paid $0.58 per 10 projected, the 3rd highest starters cost in the draft. Overall this roster has the 6th most projected points.
In the end I’ve ended up making a pretty strong case for holding onto your cash and waiting for value in auction drafts. There is something to be said for spending up for a first rounder or finding solid value on a few second rounders. Perhaps the most important thing is to not get caught up in the auction’s unique “Market Pricing” at the beginning and making sure to reserve some of your cash for the later rounds. It might be interesting to go back and look at how the various approaches to this draft panned out after the season. In the meantime, here is one more chart showing how each drafter spent on their starters, overall and how efficient their picks were in terms of Price/Proj.
| Auction Mock - Final Results | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | Start. Proj. | Total Proj. | Start Pr/Proj | Total PR/Proj | |
| Andy Richardson | $73.00 | 1,575.95 | 2,999.44 | $0.46 | $0.33 |
| Ian Allan | $54.00 | 1,526.50 | 2,973.22 | $0.35 | $0.34 |
| Don McCown | $71.00 | 1,545.51 | 2,889.28 | $0.46 | $0.35 |
| Shane Hallam | $69.00 | 1,528.62 | 2,747.47 | $0.45 | $0.36 |
| Jerry Donabedian | $76.00 | 1,486.25 | 2,609.02 | $0.51 | $0.38 |
| Chuck Anderson | $91.00 | 1,573.83 | 2,596.64 | $0.58 | $0.39 |
| Richard Micheli | $80.00 | 1,431.70 | 2,563.17 | $0.56 | $0.39 |
| Bryce Emmanuel | $87.00 | 1,607.90 | 2,552.44 | $0.54 | $0.39 |
| BreeceIndex | $91.00 | 1,442.72 | 2,544.70 | $0.63 | $0.39 |
| Ernie Freund | $57.00 | 1,394.38 | 2,476.39 | $0.41 | $0.39 |
| Micheal Moriarty | $83.00 | 1,385.24 | 2,437.10 | $0.60 | $0.41 |
| Ben Prator | $79.00 | 1,433.13 | 2,413.29 | $0.55 | $0.41 |