JACKSONVILLE (vs. Car.): It’s too early to draw any conclusions on Liam Coen’s hopes of sparking Jacksonville’s offense. It scored only 32 touchdowns last year, but Coen last year was able to lift the Bucs from 36 to 57 touchdowns.
But he’s got only one year of experience as a coordinator, and Jacksonville has an offensive line that’s far inferior to what he left behind in Tampa Bay. The schedule, at least, lays out for a good start. The Jaguars are playing at home, and they’re facing the defense that last year allowed the most yards and points in the league. The betting lines suggest Jacksonville will be finishing with above-average numbers. It’s a 3-point favorite, with an over-under of 46.5 points. We have the Jacksonville offense projected to average 2.25 touchdowns his year, but we have them dialed up some for this week.
Jacksonville’s running game is messy, and not just because the team has a lousy offensive line. They drafted Bhayshul Tuten, but he didn’t seem to get much traction in the preseason. When the first-unit offense was on the field, it was always with Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby getting the reps. They’re currently listed as co-starters. Etienne has more experience and pass-catching ability, while Bigsby is more, as the name implies, tank-like, with more tackle-breaking ability. In a typical matchup, these would look like lesser options. They might still be lesser options. But Carolina last year was awfully awful against the run, allowing 39 more rushing yards per week than any other team. And they allowed 24 rushing touchdowns. Carolina gets tackle Derrick Brown back, who’s their most important defensive player, but it will be a bad run defense again. Liam Coen, meanwhile, helped Tampa Bay’s run game improve for 60 yards per week. So some merit in tossing Etienne or Bigsby into a lineup, hoping for something good to happen.
The matchup isn’t as tantalizing for Trevor Lawrence. They should win this game and score more points than usual, which is good, but if they’re running the ball with success, that makes it less likely he’ll be piling up a ton of yards. He was a below-average quarterback last year, averaging 222 passing yards in his nine full games, with 11 touchdowns. Coen was able to get career-best numbers out of Baker Mayfield last year, but with a far better offensive line.
We’re slotting the wide receivers a little higher than usual. As with Trevor Lawrence, we’re thinking more touchdown potential than usual, but not as notable for yards. Brian Thomas averaged 8.2 catches in his final five games last year. His two primary coaches were with offenses that heavily featured No. 1 receivers last year. Coen in Tampa Bay was working with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, while Grant Udinski was in Minnesota, with Justin Jefferson sucking up zillions of targets. Udinski is only 29, so he’s probably got the least amount of sway of any offensive coordinator in the league.
Travis Hunter is a talent, but he's also a work in progress, having spent substantial time working at defensive back in recent years. He’s still learning the wide receiver position. They’ll likely pump him some short balls, hoping he can turn some of them into nice gainers, but that’s tough to do.
Dyami Brown, Parker Washington and Tim Patrick should also play some, but they don’t look like the kind of guys who can be used with any realistic expectation of something good happening. Washington entered training camp as their fourth receiver, but it would not be surprising if he winds up outperforming Brown.
Brenton Strange looks like a modest tight end. The passing game won’t necessarily be great, and the Jaguars have those two big-time wide receivers who need to eat first. But Strange was serviceable last year after replacing Evan Engram. In Strange’s eight starts, he averaged 3.6 catches for 34 yards, with 2 TDs. (Those are top-20 numbers in PPR leagues.)
The Jaguars were a bottom-10 kicking team last year, with Cam Little scoring only 108 points, but he looks more likely to be a top-10 option this week. The Jaguars are at home, and they’re playing against one of the league’s worst defenses. Carolina allowed 162 kicking points last year (12 more than Brandon Aubrey scored). Little can bang in the long kicks; he went 5 of 6 from 50-plus last year, and he hit a 70-yard field goal in the preseason.
The Jaguars Defense gets a seemingly favorable matchup against undersized Bryce Young, but he’s a much better quarterback now than he was a rookie. He was sacked only 19 times in his final eight starts last year, and with only 3 interceptions. The Panthers were slightly worse than most offenses in turnovers last year, but slightly better in sacks. Jacksonville’s defense generally misfired last year; only four teams generated fewer sacks, and the Jaguars had 3 fewer turnovers than any other team.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 1 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst & Super Fanatic Packages. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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