CINCINNATI (vs. Jac.): The Bengals put up a clunker in Week 1, sneaking out of Cleveland with a 1-point win, but they’ll get things figured out – and likely sooner rather than later.
Cincinnati similarly stunk in Week 1 last year, then averaged 33 points in their next four. All the preseason expectations still apply, with the Bengals remaining a chalk favorite to lead the league in passing production. Things are set up nicely for them to rebound immediately – at home against the defense that allowed the 2nd-most yards in the league last year.
Nobody should be worrying about Joe Burrow. For whatever reason, Jim Schwartz and the Browns have had always tended to get in his head – he’s played poorly in his last three games in the Dawg Pound. And Burrow sputtered to 164 yards in his opener last year, with no touchdowns. But they’ll get things synced up. After his poor opener last year, he averaged 301 passing yards in his next four, with 12 TDs. That kind of production is very much in play this week. Jacksonville last year allowed the most passing yards in the league, and with 29 TDs. The Jaguars shut down Bryce Young in Week 1, but it’s too early to seriously entertain the idea of that being an average pass defense. Burrow played well enough in spurts in the preseason that it would be a surprise if he doesn’t go for at least 280 yards with multiple touchdowns.
Similarly with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, the Cleveland game doesn’t change the big picture expectation of what we thought they’d be in August. Chase should be the league’s leading receiver, and Higgins should be the most productive sidekick. Chase averaged 7.8 catches for 107 yards in his last 15 games last year, with 17 TDs. Higgins in his last 10 games last year averaged 6.4 catches for 81 yards, with 10 TDs. If anyone is offering these guys up in a trade, now would be a good time to act. This week, they’re facing the defense that that allowed the most passing yards in the league last year.
Chase Brown averaged only 2 yards per carry last week (running for 43 yards), but he should also be on the rise. With that passing game shredding opponents, it should open up things for him nicely. He averaged 79 rushing and 37 receiving yards in his last eight games last year, with 6 TDs. He’s their guy. And he's facing a defense that ranked in the bottom 10 against the run last year. The Jaguars held up pretty well against Chuba Hubbard last week, limiting him to 57 yards on 16 carries, but Brown nonetheless seems like a top-10 back.
While the Bengals put up big passing numbers, there’s not a tight end we like. Mike Gesicki can operate like a wide receiver, but when Chase and Higgins are available, he tends to be an afterthought – 39 catches in those 12 games last year, with no touchdowns. Noah Fant caught 4 passes and a touchdown in his debut, but his catches totaled only 26 yards.
Evan McPherson looks
like a credible kicking option. Certainly, there will be some scoring. Cincinnati
didn’t have a kicker friendly offense last year, with 19 more touchdowns than
field goal attempts, but that group was in efficient form in Week 1. Only four
teams allowed more kicking points than Jacksonville last year.
The Bengals
Defense looks like a lesser option, with not enough talent outside of Trey
Hendrickson. Only six teams finished with fewer sacks last year, and Cincinnati
managed only 2 sacks in Week 1 against Joe Flacco (with both picks coming on
dropped balls). Trevor Lawrence didn’t take any sacks in his first game (but
did toss an interception).
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 2 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst & Super Fanatic Packages. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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