I take Sunday as evidence that the offense hasn’t changed all that much in Buffalo. Josh Allen passed for 394 yards against the Ravens, but that’s not how the Bills want to play. Going forward, there should be more games where they opt to choke out opponents by running the ball.
That’s how it’s been for most of the last two years.
Since Joe Brady took over as the offensive coordinator, Allen has played in 30 full games. (I’m setting aside the Week 18 game last year against New England, which was essentially an exhibition game).
In 12 of those 30 games (that is, in 40 percent of those games), the Bills have opened things up, with Allen passing for over 260 yards. He’s averaged 313 passing yards in those 12 games, with 25 TD passes. That includes those shootout games at Los Angeles and Detroit late last year.
| JOSH ALLEN: PASS-ORIENTED GAME PLANS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Opp | Result | Com | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Rushing |
| 11/19/23 | NYJ | W, 32-6 | 20 | 32 | 275 | 3 | 1 | 5-15-0 |
| 11/26/23 | at Phil. | L, 34-37 | 29 | 51 | 339 | 2 | 1 | 9-81-2 |
| 1/7/24 | at Mia. | W, 21-14 | 30 | 38 | 359 | 2 | 2 | 15-67-0 |
| 9/23/24 | Jac. | W, 47-10 | 23 | 30 | 263 | 4 | 0 | 6-44-0 |
| 10/20/24 | Ten. | W, 34-10 | 21 | 33 | 323 | 2 | 0 | 3-1-0 |
| 10/27/24 | at Sea. | W, 31-10 | 24 | 34 | 283 | 2 | 1 | 7-25-0 |
| 11/10/24 | at Ind. | W, 30-20 | 22 | 37 | 280 | 0 | 2 | 8-50-1 |
| 11/17/24 | K.C. | W, 30-21 | 27 | 40 | 262 | 1 | 1 | 12-55-1 |
| 12/8/24 | at LAR | L, 42-44 | 22 | 37 | 342 | 3 | 0 | 10-82-3 |
| 12/15/24 | at Det. | W, 48-42 | 23 | 34 | 362 | 2 | 0 | 11-68-2 |
| 1/12/25 | Den. | W, 31-7 | 20 | 26 | 272 | 2 | 0 | 8-46-0 |
| 9/7/25 | • Balt. | W, 41-40 | 33 | 46 | 394 | 2 | 0 | 14-30-2 |
But more commonly, the Bills want to be a well-rounded, run-oriented team. In their 18 other Joe Brady games (in 60 percent of his games), Allen has passed for fewer than 240 yards. Allen has averaged only 181 passing yards in those 18 games, with 23 touchdowns versus only 5 interceptions.
In essentially all of those games, Allen could have been far more prolific, had the Bills chosen to go that route. But they haven’t.
| JOSH ALLEN: RUN-ORIENTED GAME PLANS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Opp | Result | Com | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Rushing |
| 12/10/23 | at K.C. | W, 20-17 | 23 | 42 | 233 | 1 | 1 | 10-32-1 |
| 12/17/23 | Dall. | W, 31-10 | 7 | 15 | 94 | 1 | 0 | 8-24-1 |
| 12/23/23 | at LAC | W, 24-22 | 15 | 21 | 237 | 1 | 1 | 5-15-2 |
| 12/31/23 | N.E. | W, 27-21 | 15 | 30 | 169 | 0 | 1 | 11-44-2 |
| 1/15/24 | Pitt. | W, 31-17 | 21 | 30 | 203 | 3 | 0 | 8-74-1 |
| 1/21/24 | K.C. | L, 24-27 | 26 | 39 | 186 | 1 | 0 | 12-72-2 |
| 9/8/24 | Ari. | W, 34-28 | 18 | 23 | 232 | 2 | 0 | 9-39-2 |
| 9/12/24 | at Mia. | W, 31-10 | 13 | 19 | 139 | 1 | 0 | 2-2-0 |
| 9/29/24 | at Balt. | L, 10-35 | 16 | 29 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 5-21-0 |
| 10/6/24 | at Hou. | L, 20-23 | 9 | 30 | 131 | 1 | 0 | 4-54-0 |
| 10/14/24 | at NYJ | W, 23-20 | 19 | 25 | 215 | 2 | 0 | 9-18-1 |
| 11/3/24 | Mia. | W, 30-27 | 25 | 39 | 235 | 3 | 1 | 2-7-0 |
| 12/1/24 | S.F. | W, 35-10 | 13 | 17 | 148 | 2 | 0 | 3-18-1 |
| 12/22/24 | N.E. | W, 24-21 | 16 | 29 | 154 | 1 | 1 | 6-30-0 |
| 12/29/24 | NYJ | W, 40-14 | 16 | 27 | 182 | 2 | 0 | 5-17-1 |
| 1/19/25 | Balt. | W, 27-25 | 16 | 22 | 127 | 0 | 0 | 10-20-2 |
| 1/26/25 | at K.C. | L, 29-32 | 22 | 34 | 237 | 2 | 0 | 11-39-0 |
| 9/14/25 | • at NYJ | W, 30-10 | 14 | 25 | 148 | 0 | 0 | 6-59-0 |
Which brings us to Thursday’s game. The Bills could boat-race the Dolphins, if they opt to go that route. But I think the available data suggests they’re far more likely to go with the anaconda approach, methodically grinding out a victory. I don’t think they’re all that interested in trying to put up pinball numbers.
At the same time, Allen is also a runner, which can cover up the stink of lesser passing numbers. he’s averaged 32 rushing yards in his down passing games, with 16 TDs. (He’s averaged 47 rushing yards in the more aerial games, with 11 TDs in those 12.)
—Ian Allan