Ja’Marr Chase is good enough that there’s a chance he’ll still finish the season as a top-5 receiver. He was very good on Sunday. But at the same time, Joe Burrow is Joe Burrow; you don’t lose a quarterback of his caliber and not feel it.
Jake Browning capably filled in on Sunday, throwing 2 TDs and winning the game at the end on a quarterback sneak. And his fill-in numbers two years ago were solid. He averaged 267 passing yards in his seven starts that year, with 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions.
But at the same time, nobody drafted Burrow with the hope he would average about 11 touchdowns for every seven games. With Burrow, the hope (expectation, some would say) was he might toss 45 touchdowns. He averaged 333 passing yards in his final nine games last year, with 28 touchdowns.
Chase averaged 7.5 catches for 101 yards last year, with 17 TDs in 17 games. That kind of production is off the table. So is anything too close to it.
If Chase were to play a full season with Browning, I think you’d be hoping for something like 100-110 catches, only with fewer downfield strikes. Maybe he averages 80 yards, and with perhaps 10 touchdowns. That would be the best-case – the ceiling – to hope for. With lesser arm strength (and accuracy) Browning doesn’t have the same ability to serve up long balls.
So far, this combo has played about seven games worth of action together. Chase has averaged 5.7 catches for 73 yards in those games, with 2 TDs.
The blow-by-blow appears below. The middle six games were started by Browning. With the games tagged with black dots, Burrow started but left with injuries. (Browning played about half of the at Baltimore game in 2023, and about three quarters of the Jacksonville game on Sunday). For those partial games, I’m listing only the stats generated when Browning was at quarterback.
With Browning, Chase has two monster games against the Jaguars (21 catches for 277 yards and a touchdown in about seven quarters worth of action). But in Chase’s other five and half games with Browning, he’s caught 15 passes for 237 yards and a touchdown. That averages out to 2.7 catches for 43 yards per game.
| CHASE WITH BROWNING AT QUARTERBACK | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Opp | Result | Tgt | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 2023 | • at Bal. | L, 20-34 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6.0 | 1 |
| 2023 | Pitt. | L, 10-16 | 6 | 4 | 81 | 20.3 | 0 |
| 2023 | at Jac. | W, 34-31 | 12 | 11 | 149 | 13.5 | 1 |
| 2023 | Ind. | W, 34-14 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| 2023 | Min. | W, 27-24 | 4 | 4 | 64 | 16.0 | 0 |
| 2023 | at K.C. | L, 17-25 | 7 | 3 | 41 | 13.7 | 0 |
| 2023 | Clev. | W, 31-14 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| 2024 | • Jac. | W, 31-27 | 11 | 10 | 128 | 11.8 | 0 |
| -- | Total | ~7 G | 53 | 40 | 514 | 12.9 | 2 |
—Ian Allan