DALLAS (vs. G.B.): Three weeks in, it looks safe to say the Cowboys won’t be challenging for a playoff spot. They’re terrible. With no pass rush, they might wind up with a
**This snippet was first published on September 24.
Offensively, they might be playing for the next month without their best receiver and two interior offensive line starters. It’s not happening, and it could be particularly ugly on Sunday night, on display in front of a national audience. The Packers are tough defensively, allowing the fewest points in the league and the 3rd-fewest yards.
While the Cowboys have misfired on many key decisions, give credit where credit is due. They appear to have really nailed it at the running back position. With a glaring need at the position, they went cheap in free agency, signing Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders, and those guys have been fine. Williams is averaging 76 rushing yards at 5.3 per carry, with 3 TDs, looking better here than he did post-injury in Denver. At only $3 million, he looks like one of the best values in the league – he’s outplaying a lot of backs who are making a lot more. And Sanders similarly is outperforming his contract, averaging 36 yards per week at 6.1 per attempt (all for the low price of $1.3 million). Sanders looks fine as the backup for now. At some point Jaydon Blue will get tossed into the fray, but he hasn’t been activated yet. It should be Williams-Sanders on Sunday night, and rank them lower than usual, with an eye on those OL injuries and Green Bay’s run defense. There were a few breakdowns in Cleveland, but the Packers held the Lions and Commanders to only 46 and 51 rushing yards. (Dallas is averaging 125, but perhaps down around 100 in this one.)
Dak Prescott is an above-average quarterback, but he needs to have his full complement of players. With CeeDee Lamb out, the receiving corps becomes below average, and it starts to look like a situation best avoided. Without Lamb, Prescott managed to direct the offense to only one touchdown against a Chicago defense that the previous week had allowed 52 points in Detroit. Prescott passed for 361 yards and 2 TDs against the Giants (who also have a terrible defense) but only one touchdown pass in his other eight quarters. He doesn’t run much anymore, so there will be no help in that regard. The Packers are allowing only 189 passing yards per week, and 2 of the 3 TD passes have been cheap ones in the dying minutes of games that were in hand.
With CeeDee Lamb out for a least a couple of games, George Pickens will move into a more featured role. That’s probably not a good thing – Pickens is better suited to be a sidekick, making big plays while seeing more favorable matchups. Pickens wasn’t great last week, catching 5 of the 9 passes thrown his way, for 68 yards and a touchdown. Given the level of competition, it seemed like he should have done a lot more.
With Lamb out, Jalen Tolbert returns to a full, starting-type role, but expectations should be modest. Thrust into that role last week, he caught only 3 of the 6 passes thrown his way, for 24 yards. In his seven full games with Prescott at quarterback last year, Tolbert averaged 3.9 catches for 48 yards, with 2 TDs. There was a late game-winner at Pittsburgh, but he’s just not that good. He has, on the plus side, at least been effective around the goal line. He’s seen 10 targets inside the 10-yard line in the last three years, and he’s caught 7 of them, all for touchdowns.
The one player who looks remarkably better without CeeDee Lamb around is Jake Ferguson. He saw a ton of balls sent his way in Chicago, catching 13 passes. Most of those were short, ineffectual completions, but that’s an unusually busy role for a tight end. Prescott seems to have a comfort level with him that isn’t there with his other pass catchers. (Even the previous week, with Lamb, Ferguson caught 9 balls.) And recall that when the Packers blew out the Cowboys in the playoffs two years ago, Ferguson caught 10 passes for 93 yards and 3 TDs. Green Bay has had a fairly tight end-friendly defense so far. Sam LaPorta and Zach Ertz both caught 6 passes against them, with a touchdown, and David Njoku and Harold Fannin combined for 8 grabs.
Brandon Aubrey is a remarkable enough talent that most won’t bother even thinking about sitting him down. Nonetheless, the Cowboys look pretty likely to lose on Sunday, and that means it makes a lot of sense to instead replace Aubrey with a less-heralded option. Aubrey in 20 wins as a pro averages 10.9 points. But in 18 losses, he averages only 6.8 points. Now, 6.8 would be an awfully low projection (given that we think rather than know Dallas will lose) but the play here is to move Aubrey well down the list of kickers.
If the Cowboys Defense is to pay off, it likely will involve a jackpot return from KaVontae Turpin. He hasn’t hit on anything yet, but he was the only player to score 2 TDs on kick returns last year. The other stuff – sacks, interceptions, fumbles – probably won’t be happening. Only four teams so far have fewer sacks, and only three have fewer takeaways.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 4 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst & Super Fanatic Packages. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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