Fantasy Index

Andy Richardson

Thursday Night Recap

San Francisco wins overtime thriller

Well that was a wild one. Lots of second-guessing after this one, both NFL-wise and fantasy-wise. Let's plow ahead and discuss what went right and wrong as the 49ers move to a surprising 4-1.

QUARTERBACKS

San Francisco signed Brock Purdy to a 5-year, $265-million contract in the offseason. Think they're regretting that a little right now? I am sure the team and their fans will say there's no controversy. I would expect no less and certainly a healthy Purdy has been very good. But there's no getting around that Mac Jones has been just as good or better -- in a smaller sample set, yes -- than Purdy at a fraction of the cost. Seriously, did the guy throw a bad pass last night? But for a drop or two San Francisco might have been up 21-0 after three possessions, and but for the fact Jones himself was dealing with a couple of injuries the game might have been a blowout. We'll get to the receivers later, but part of the underestimating of one or two of them was that Jones throwing for 342 yards was not expected. What a game. (Fantasy-wise, the problem is not knowing until the day before the game which 49ers passer will be healthy enough to start, but with the team not running it well, there will be more good games.)

Then there's creaky old Matthew Stafford throwing for 389 yards and 3 TDs, pretty similar to his game in the win over the Colts last week. I think I recently said something about him being a lesser fantasy option because he doesn't run. Clearly, if he's throwing for 375-plus and multiple touchdowns he's a fantasy option. Stafford was charged with a fumble last night to kill one early drive that was actually a dropped pitch by his running back.

RUNNING BACKS

As runners, these guys sure were productive receivers last night. Another lesser running game from Christian McCaffrey, but an insane receiving game. In the latest Index Bets I recommended the over on McCaffrey's receptions (it was set at 6.5) saying he might do that by halftime. In fact he had 5 midway through the second quarter, finishing with 8 for 82 yards and a score. Keep betting overs on his receiving with the conventional running game not really happening. He averaged just 2.6 yards per attempt but a third of the way through the season I'm willing to admit defeat on not drafting the guy. Brian Robinson got a few short-yardage carries and every once in a while he'll score, but he's basically not doing much.

Up and down night for Kyren Williams. Obviously outstanding in fantasy leagues, catching 8 passes for 66 yards and 2 TDs, all of which I'm assuming without looking it up are something close to career highs for the guy. But just 65 rushing yards, with a costly goal-line fumble and then stopped on fourth down in overtime with Sean McVay opting to play for the win rather than settling for the tie. I have mixed feelings about that choice. Playing a divisional foe, a tie last night arguably would have been about as good as a win (since you'd own the tiebreak, and still essentially be "ahead" when the dust settles down the road). I don't know. McVay regretted the playcall afterward which had no chance. Nice to see Kyren's involvement in the passing game, second year in a row he was underdrafted in fantasy leagues.

Blake Corum had one nice carry but played only 6 snaps; I'm assuming that perhaps he was penalized for an early fumble to kill a Rams drive. Stafford's pitch was a little weird, flipping the ball end over end -- to be clear, I wasn't starting Corum anywhere and have no bias for the guy, but it looked like an awkward play at both ends. Anyhoo, Corum wasn't a factor and seems like that play was part of it.

WIDE RECEIVERS

We'll get the Rams guys out of the way quickly. If you selected Puka Nacua late in the first or early in the second round, you're pretty happy these days. Stafford's first look on every play, it's early but if he can stay healthy he'll make a run at the receptions record. Not enough scoring so non-PPR isn't as appealing, but hey a lot better than say Malik Nabers. Quieter game for Davante Adams, but also a quality starter most weeks. Tutu Atwell caught a couple of longer passes and was wide open for another where Stafford overthrew him. He was a little more involved last night since the game-winner against the Colts, though I imagine the Rams would like to not throw the ball 47 times each week. Couple short grabs for Jordan Whittington, a guy to keep on the back burner in case Nacua gets hurt at some point.

When Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall were ruled out on Wednesday afternoon, a couple of readers here were asking where Kendrick Bourne and Demarcus Robinson should rank. I was not encouraging enough on one of those guys, regrettably. The best I can say is I did say that Bourne was the better option, as indeed he was: 10 for 142, pretty nice game. And obviously not recommending Robinson (3 for 39) was another win. But in retrospect, I wish I'd had nicer things to say about Bourne. So a mixed bag. Hopefully you didn't start DRob and maybe did start or at least roster Bourne, who looks like he'll be a factor here (who knows how long the regular starters will be out with their myriad injuries). Marques Valdes-Scantling a typical MVS line as the No. 3, playing half the snaps while catching 1 pass.

TIGHT ENDS

Big game for Jake Tonges, who we've also been cool on. Again, I don't think they really want to attempt 49 passes very often, but Tonges got free for the game-opening touchdown reception and had 11 targets, so he's playing a Kittle-lite role in the offense. When Kittle will return, it could be Week 6, it could still be another week or two away. Congrats to those who had faith in Tonges, who at least seems like a dynasty hold at the heir apparent at the moment.

The Rams didn't have Tyler Higbee available, so Colby Parkinson started and Davis Allen played the most. But the guy who caught my eye was rookie second-rounder Terrance Ferguson, who apparently is still getting up to speed because he only played 4 snaps. One of them he turned into a pretty 21-yard reception that converted a third-and-4 at a time when the Rams really needed it -- they were down 14-0 and had they punted there, 21-0 seemed pretty likely the way San Francisco was clicking (the Rams scored on that drive). No one needs pick up Ferguson or any Rams tight end at the moment, but a guy to have on the back burner in dynasty.

MISCELLANEOUS

Neither defense looked too good last night. The quarterbacks combined to attempt 96 passes, and each took only 1 sack. The 49ers got a couple of late stops and forced a goal-line fumble, but the other turnover was a simple offensive miscue. Neither defense looks like it should be avoided.

Good outing for Eddy Pineiro, who the 49ers are certainly glad they picked up. Not so much for Joshua Karty, who made the 48-yarder to force overtime but missed from 53 and more painfully had an extra point blocked. Pineiro was good from 59 yards; Eagles DC Vic Fangio was talking last week about longer field goals (the Bucs made a couple against his team), lamenting what the league is doing with the kicking balls that are being used. I'm going to agree with Fangio that 60-yard field goals becoming routine is not a great thing for the NFL.

So San Francisco is 4-1 and the Rams are 3-2, and Seattle will be one or the other after Sunday. NFC West is going to put 2-3 teams in the playoffs this year, making things tough on other divisions.

One more gambling note: about 40 people in my Survivor Pool got bounced picking the Rams last night. They were one of the week's biggest favorites at 8.5 points. But divisional matchups between these two teams, usually close. And factoring that Mac Jones is comparable to Purdy and stuff, well, the point spread was a little too lofty. Why I hesitate to "save" better teams in pools of this sort.

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