I’ve seen it mentioned a few times on the site: readers worried about scoring being down in the games played in England (for Week 7, Rams and Jaguars). Teams are thrown off by jet lag, the theory goes – avoid those players in fantasy lineups, the theory goes.
I ran the numbers. I don’t see much in it.
There have been 41 games played in the United Kingdom, plus a Steelers-Vikings game in nearby Dublin a few weeks ago. In half of those games, the teams scored more than the over-under out of Vegas, and in half they scored fewer.
Those 84 teams averaged 22.0 points, which doesn’t seem out of the ordinary to me.
I pulled the below numbers off pro-football-reference.com. I’m not sure where they got the over-under figures. But if we total up the figures for the over-unders and the actual results, they’re only 5.5 points different after 42 games, which is remarkable.
SCORING IN GAMES PLAYED IN ENGLAND | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Winner | Loser | Score | Total | O/U | Result |
2025 | Denver | NY Jets | 13-11 | 24 | 43.5 | under |
2025 | Pittsburgh | Minnesota | 24-21 | 45 | 41.0 | over |
2025 | Minnesota | Cleveland | 21-17 | 38 | 35.5 | over |
2024 | Minnesota | NY Jets | 23-17 | 40 | 41.0 | under |
2024 | Chicago | Jacksonville | 35-16 | 51 | 45.0 | over |
2024 | Jacksonville | New England | 32-16 | 48 | 42.5 | over |
2023 | Jacksonville | Buffalo | 25-20 | 45 | 48.5 | under |
2023 | Baltimore | Tennessee | 24-16 | 40 | 42.5 | under |
2023 | Jacksonville | Atlanta | 23-7 | 30 | 42.5 | under |
2022 | Denver | Jacksonville | 21-17 | 38 | 40.5 | under |
2022 | Minnesota | New Orleans | 28-25 | 53 | 42.0 | over |
2022 | NY Giants | Green Bay | 27-22 | 49 | 41.5 | over |
2021 | Jacksonville | Miami | 23-20 | 43 | 47.0 | under |
2021 | Atlanta | NY Jets | 27-20 | 47 | 45.0 | over |
2019 | LA Rams | Cincinnati | 24-10 | 34 | 48.5 | under |
2019 | Houston | Jacksonville | 26-3 | 29 | 46.0 | under |
2019 | Carolina | Tampa Bay | 37-26 | 63 | 48.5 | over |
2019 | Oakland | Chicago | 24-21 | 45 | 39.5 | over |
2018 | LA Chargers | Tennessee | 20-19 | 39 | 46.0 | under |
2018 | Philadelphia | Jacksonville | 24-18 | 42 | 44.0 | under |
2018 | Seattle | Oakland | 27-3 | 30 | 48.0 | under |
2017 | New Orleans | Miami | 20-0 | 20 | 51.5 | under |
2017 | LA Rams | Arizona | 33-0 | 33 | 45.5 | under |
2017 | Minnesota | Cleveland | 33-16 | 49 | 38.5 | over |
2017 | Jacksonville | Baltimore | 44-7 | 51 | 38.0 | over |
2016 | NY Giants | LA Rams | 17-10 | 27 | 44.5 | under |
2016 | (tie) Wash. | (tie) Cin. | 27-27 | 54 | 49.0 | over |
2016 | Jacksonville | Indianapolis | 30-27 | 57 | 48.0 | over |
2015 | NY Jets | Miami | 27-14 | 41 | 42.0 | under |
2015 | Jacksonville | Buffalo | 34-31 | 65 | 41.0 | over |
2015 | Kansas City | Detroit | 45-10 | 55 | 45.0 | over |
2014 | Detroit | Atlanta | 22-21 | 43 | 45.5 | under |
2014 | Dallas | Jacksonville | 31-17 | 48 | 45.0 | over |
2014 | Miami | Oakland | 38-14 | 52 | 40.5 | over |
2013 | Minnesota | Pittsburgh | 34-27 | 61 | 41.5 | over |
2013 | San Francisco | Jacksonville | 42-10 | 52 | 40.0 | over |
2012 | New England | St. Louis | 45-7 | 52 | 46.0 | over |
2011 | Chicago | Tampa Bay | 24-18 | 42 | 44.0 | under |
2010 | San Francisco | Denver | 24-16 | 40 | 41.5 | under |
2009 | New England | Tampa Bay | 35-7 | 42 | 44.5 | under |
2008 | New Orleans | San Diego | 37-32 | 69 | 45.5 | over |
2007 | NY Giants | Miami | 13-10 | 23 | 48.0 | under |
—Ian Allan