Should you ever be wondering why quarterbacks get the monster contracts and command most of the premium draft picks each year, the 2025 season provides evidence as to why. The winners have the passers. The losers do not.
This is generally the case in the current quarterback-friendly era of the NFL, but it looks particularly striking when looking at quarterback play and team wins today. I thought of this while reading about the Saints shifting from Spencer Rattler to Tyler Shough (pictured), which seems like a lateral move. But I guess they have to find out what they have, to know if they'll be selecting a passer even earlier next April.
Thus far, there are 28 quarterbacks who've started most of the season to this point. (I ditched a few teams where starts have been split fairly evenly between multiple players -- Ravens, Giants, Bengals, Vikings.
I sorted those 28 regular starters by passing yards per game. I could have sorted them by passer rating or touchdowns and got similar results. Regardless, most of the guys at the top of the table are running winning teams, while most of the guys at the bottom are laboring for losers.
Only one of the quarterbacks in the top 10 in passing yards per game plays for a team that hasn't won at least 5 games (Dak Prescott). Just three of the quarterbacks in the bottom 10 (and just 1 in the bottom 8) play for teams who have won more than 2 games (Hurts, Daniels and Young).
| QUARTERBACKS, YARDS PER GAME AND TEAM WINS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pass | TD | Int | Pass/G | TmW |
| Justin Herbert | 2140 | 16 | 7 | 267.5 | 5 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1866 | 17 | 2 | 266.6 | 5 |
| Mac Jones | 1597 | 8 | 5 | 266.2 | 5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2099 | 17 | 4 | 262.4 | 5 |
| Dak Prescott | 2069 | 16 | 5 | 258.6 | 3.5 |
| Daniel Jones | 2062 | 13 | 3 | 257.8 | 7 |
| Jordan Love | 1798 | 13 | 2 | 256.9 | 5.5 |
| Drake Maye | 2026 | 15 | 3 | 253.3 | 6 |
| Sam Darnold | 1754 | 12 | 4 | 250.6 | 5 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1919 | 13 | 2 | 239.9 | 6 |
| Michael Penix | 1409 | 5 | 3 | 234.8 | 3 |
| Caleb Williams | 1636 | 9 | 4 | 233.7 | 4 |
| Jared Goff | 1631 | 15 | 3 | 233.0 | 5 |
| C.J. Stroud | 1623 | 11 | 5 | 231.9 | 3 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 1620 | 9 | 5 | 231.4 | 4 |
| Bo Nix | 1803 | 15 | 5 | 225.4 | 6 |
| Josh Allen | 1560 | 12 | 4 | 222.9 | 5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1489 | 16 | 5 | 212.7 | 4 |
| Jalen Hurts | 1677 | 15 | 1 | 209.6 | 6 |
| Jayden Daniels | 1031 | 8 | 1 | 206.2 | 3 |
| Geno Smith | 1417 | 7 | 10 | 202.4 | 2 |
| Cam Ward | 1615 | 5 | 6 | 201.9 | 1 |
| Spencer Rattler | 1586 | 8 | 5 | 198.3 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | 962 | 6 | 3 | 192.4 | 2 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1518 | 15 | 10 | 189.8 | 2 |
| Bryce Young | 1288 | 11 | 5 | 184.0 | 4 |
| Justin Fields | 1089 | 5 | 0 | 155.6 | 1 |
| Dillon Gabriel | 702 | 5 | 2 | 117.0 | 2 |
A couple of guys at or near the bottom are rookies who have plenty of time to amount to something, or veterans who have done good things in the past -- could still be fine. But in general, if you're not among the passing leaders, your team is losing most of its games, and you'll likely be replaced, either later this year or next.
Not really a scientific study, but interesting. The league is mostly tough on game-manager quarterbacks these days.
--Andy Richardson
9 Reader Comments:
Ben Hogevoll
Paul Desimone
Robert Cummings
Ben Hogevoll
Andy Richardson (Fantasy Index)
Robert Cummings
Josh Obusek
Robert Cummings
Anyway, maybe he just tweaked something - you don't run off the field right before your possession unless it was a concern...I was hoping it was a bathroom break...
Andy Richardson (Fantasy Index)