MIAMI (Was. in Spain): The Dolphins have a lame-duck coach and a lame-duck quarterback, but they look surprisingly decent this week.
The offense has had some pitiful lows this
year, scoring 6-8 points in blowout losses against the Colts, Browns and
Ravens, but it’s been solid enough in the other seven games, scoring 23
touchdowns, including at least 3 in their last six. That looks awfully enticing
when considering the other side of this matchup. Only two defenses have allowed
more yards than Washington, and only three have allowed more points. Washington
has allowed at least 4 TDs in four straight games. As an added bonus, the
Commanders are working with a depleted roster. There are three players on their
roster with contracts worth over $90 million, and none of them are playing –
Terry McLaurin, Marshon Lattimore and Daron Payne (as well as Jayden Daniels). There
are 29 other teams playing this week, and Miami will likely outperform most of
them.
DeVon Achane looks about as likely as anyone to be the most
productive field player in Week 11. He’s having a great year – on pace for
1,879 yards and 15 touchdowns – and this looks like the kind of defense he’ll
really rip up. A running back similar to Achane (Jahmyr Gibbs) had a big game
at Washington last week. The Commanders have allowed at least 145 rushing yards
in five of their last six games. Achane has runs of 45-plus yards in three of
his last five. And he’s also a big part of their passing game (averaging 4.9
catches for 33 yards, with 4 TDs. Achane is small, but they don’t spell him all
that much (Ollie Gordon has run for only 119 yards in 10 games, with one
touchdown).
Jaylen Waddle also gets two massive thumbs up. He’s
perhaps better suited to be a No. 2 receiver rather than a go-to option, but
he’s good. And the passing game nowadays is built around him (helped along by
Tyreek Hill being out for the year). Waddle was shut down in a poor weather
game in Cleveland (which has a great defense) but he’s caught 5-6 passes in his
last five other games, averaging 5.6 catches for 94 yards in those weeks, with
3 TDs. He’s their guy, and this looks like a week where he’ll be hitting on a
few plays. Washington has allowed the 2nd-most passing yards, and with the
2nd-most TD passes in the league (including at least 3 in four straight games).
It’s a Waddle kind of week.
The sell is harder for Tua Tagovailoa.
We’re projecting him higher than usual, but there are concerns about the game
plan perhaps being a little run oriented. His numbers haven’t been as prolific
this year; he’s passed for more than 205 yards only three times, and all three
were in weeks that the running game wasn’t working, forcing the team to pass
more. And with limited size and mobility, he doesn’t run at all. But he looks
like a good choice for multiple touchdowns (he’s thrown 17, while the
Commanders have allowed 22). And he could zoom up to 250 yards or more should
the play calling get more aggressive. Washington is allowing 274 passing yards
per week, 2nd-most in the league.
With Washington’s defense being pretty putrid,
those in larger leagues might want to think about Malik Washington. He’s
caught touchdowns in two of his last three games. But almost everything is
short and around the line of scrimmage; he’s averaging 6.4 yards per catch.
Since Tyreek Hill got hurt, Washington averages 3.7 catches for 24 yards, with
2 TDs in six games.
Miami might get Darren Waller back after its bye. For
this game, it should be Greg Dulcich getting most of the opportunities
at tight end. Dulcich was surprisingly productive against the Ravens, catching
all 5 of the passes thrown his way, but he caught only 1 pass (on 4 targets) on
Sunday. With Washington having allowed 4 TDs to tight ends in its last four
games, we’re contractually obligated to mention Dulcich.
Riley Patterson is
an iffy kicker, as evidenced by him playing for six different teams in the last
five years. With shaky accuracy and limited opportunities, he’s averaging only
6.6 points. But given the matchup, there’s some chance Patterson boots his way
into the top 10 in Week 11. Washington is allowing 8.4 points per game against
the position.
The Dolphins Defense looks like a modest choice. It’s
facing a backup quarterback, but one with experience and a mindset of wanting
to take care of the ball. Marcus Mariota has taken only 7 sacks in his four
games, and with the team turning it over only 4 times in those four weeks.
Miami just traded away one of its impact defenders (Jaelan Phillips) and has
only 20 sacks in 10 games. The Dolphins have recovered 8 fumbles, tying for
most in the league, but that’s a stat that involves a lot of chance.
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