The Patriots are 8-2, and I don’t think they’re going away. They look like a solid team, and they’ll be benefitting from a soft schedule the rest of the way. The current wins and losses suggest they’ll be playing the easiest schedule the rest of the way.
They’ve got seven games left, and I see only two notable opponents. They’re hosting Buffalo in Week 15, and they’re at Baltimore in Week 16. None of their other remaining opponents have won more than 3 games – Jets twice (including tonight), Bengals, Dolphins and Giants.
By wins and losses, New England’s remaining opponents have a combined record of 11-36, by far the worst in the league. New Orleans (with an offense nobody much cares about) is next, at 17-30. Then the Bengals (20-32) and Steelers (21-31).
The Bears have the hardest remaining schedule, with opponents having a combined record of 32-18-2. There are six teams whose remaining opponents have won 30-plus yards, with three each coming from the NFC North and NFC West.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Wks 11-18) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Win | Loss | T | Pct |
| New England | 11 | 36 | 0 | .234 |
| New Orleans | 17 | 30 | 0 | .362 |
| Cincinnati | 20 | 32 | 0 | .385 |
| Pittsburgh | 21 | 31 | 0 | .404 |
| Atlanta | 23 | 33 | 0 | .411 |
| Miami | 21 | 27 | 0 | .438 |
| Tampa Bay | 24 | 30 | 0 | .444 |
| Jacksonville | 25 | 31 | 0 | .446 |
| NY Jets | 24 | 29 | 0 | .453 |
| Cleveland | 24 | 28 | 0 | .462 |
| Baltimore | 25 | 27 | 1 | .481 |
| Buffalo | 26 | 28 | 0 | .481 |
| Tennessee | 27 | 28 | 0 | .491 |
| Las Vegas | 27 | 27 | 1 | .500 |
| San Francisco | 24 | 24 | 0 | .500 |
| Dallas | 28 | 27 | 0 | .509 |
| Washington | 24 | 23 | 1 | .510 |
| Kansas City | 28 | 26 | 1 | .518 |
| Houston | 29 | 26 | 0 | .527 |
| Philadelphia | 28 | 25 | 1 | .528 |
| Green Bay | 27 | 24 | 0 | .529 |
| Denver | 25 | 22 | 1 | .531 |
| LA Chargers | 25 | 22 | 1 | .531 |
| Indianapolis | 26 | 21 | 0 | .553 |
| NY Giants | 25 | 20 | 2 | .553 |
| LA Rams | 31 | 24 | 0 | .564 |
| Arizona | 32 | 22 | 0 | .593 |
| Seattle | 32 | 22 | 0 | .593 |
| Minnesota | 30 | 20 | 3 | .594 |
| Detroit | 30 | 20 | 2 | .596 |
| Carolina | 29 | 19 | 0 | .604 |
| Chicago | 32 | 18 | 2 | .635 |
Looking at strength of schedule not with wins but with points allowed by defenses, those numbers suggest the Ravens, Dolphins and Patriots have the softest defenses coming up. Averaging the next five opponents for each team, those three teams should play against defenses tending to allow 27-plus points. Baltimore’s next five games include the Bengals twice and the Jets.
The Colts, Cardinals and Kansas City project to see the most difficult defenses for the next five weeks. For Indianapolis, that includes Kansas City, Seattle and Houston, suggesting that offense likely will cool off. (The Texans currently lead the league in scoring defense, and the Colts will see them again in Week 18.)
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (next 5 G) | |
|---|---|
| Team | Win |
| Baltimore | 28.3 |
| Miami | 27.5 |
| New England | 27.1 |
| Pittsburgh | 26.9 |
| Cleveland | 25.9 |
| Philadelphia | 25.0 |
| Minnesota | 25.0 |
| New Orleans | 24.1 |
| Jacksonville | 24.0 |
| San Francisco | 23.7 |
| LA Chargers | 23.7 |
| NY Jets | 23.7 |
| Green Bay | 23.6 |
| Cincinnati | 23.6 |
| Buffalo | 23.3 |
| Detroit | 23.2 |
| Atlanta | 23.1 |
| Washington | 23.0 |
| Denver | 22.8 |
| Las Vegas | 22.6 |
| Seattle | 22.6 |
| NY Giants | 22.5 |
| Houston | 22.5 |
| Chicago | 22.5 |
| Carolina | 22.2 |
| Tampa Bay | 22.1 |
| LA Rams | 22.1 |
| Dallas | 21.9 |
| Tennessee | 21.3 |
| Kansas City | 21.1 |
| Arizona | 20.8 |
| Indianapolis | 20.2 |
—Ian Allan