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Patriots closing in on AFC East title

8-2 New England plays easiest closing schedule

The Patriots are 8-2, and I don’t think they’re going away. They look like a solid team, and they’ll be benefitting from a soft schedule the rest of the way. The current wins and losses suggest they’ll be playing the easiest schedule the rest of the way.

They’ve got seven games left, and I see only two notable opponents. They’re hosting Buffalo in Week 15, and they’re at Baltimore in Week 16. None of their other remaining opponents have won more than 3 games – Jets twice (including tonight), Bengals, Dolphins and Giants.

By wins and losses, New England’s remaining opponents have a combined record of 11-36, by far the worst in the league. New Orleans (with an offense nobody much cares about) is next, at 17-30. Then the Bengals (20-32) and Steelers (21-31).

The Bears have the hardest remaining schedule, with opponents having a combined record of 32-18-2. There are six teams whose remaining opponents have won 30-plus yards, with three each coming from the NFC North and NFC West.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Wks 11-18)
TeamWinLossTPct
New England11360.234
New Orleans17300.362
Cincinnati20320.385
Pittsburgh21310.404
Atlanta23330.411
Miami21270.438
Tampa Bay24300.444
Jacksonville25310.446
NY Jets24290.453
Cleveland24280.462
Baltimore25271.481
Buffalo26280.481
Tennessee27280.491
Las Vegas27271.500
San Francisco24240.500
Dallas28270.509
Washington24231.510
Kansas City28261.518
Houston29260.527
Philadelphia28251.528
Green Bay27240.529
Denver25221.531
LA Chargers25221.531
Indianapolis26210.553
NY Giants25202.553
LA Rams31240.564
Arizona32220.593
Seattle32220.593
Minnesota30203.594
Detroit30202.596
Carolina29190.604
Chicago32182.635

Looking at strength of schedule not with wins but with points allowed by defenses, those numbers suggest the Ravens, Dolphins and Patriots have the softest defenses coming up. Averaging the next five opponents for each team, those three teams should play against defenses tending to allow 27-plus points. Baltimore’s next five games include the Bengals twice and the Jets.

The Colts, Cardinals and Kansas City project to see the most difficult defenses for the next five weeks. For Indianapolis, that includes Kansas City, Seattle and Houston, suggesting that offense likely will cool off. (The Texans currently lead the league in scoring defense, and the Colts will see them again in Week 18.)

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (next 5 G)
TeamWin
Baltimore28.3
Miami27.5
New England27.1
Pittsburgh26.9
Cleveland25.9
Philadelphia25.0
Minnesota25.0
New Orleans24.1
Jacksonville24.0
San Francisco23.7
LA Chargers23.7
NY Jets23.7
Green Bay23.6
Cincinnati23.6
Buffalo23.3
Detroit23.2
Atlanta23.1
Washington23.0
Denver22.8
Las Vegas22.6
Seattle22.6
NY Giants22.5
Houston22.5
Chicago22.5
Carolina22.2
Tampa Bay22.1
LA Rams22.1
Dallas21.9
Tennessee21.3
Kansas City21.1
Arizona20.8
Indianapolis20.2

—Ian Allan

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