Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Is it the perfect time to trade for Brock Bowers? (Or not). Identifying streaming defenses for the fantasy playoffs. Injured players returning to action. Bending the rulebook, and more.
Question 1
Thinking of trading for Brock Bowers due to a ton of strong depth, then I saw his ROS scheduled and it’s a who’s who of top defenses. For an elite player like him, should this be a nonfactor? Or would you consider that aspect more seriously?
Jeff Hornstein (Miami, FL)
This is a good observation. The Raiders have a real murderer’s row of defenses coming up. Cleveland (this week) is actually their easiest/best situation in the foreseeable future. They’re at the Chargers next week; I realize that defese fell apart in Jacksonville, but it allowed only 2 TDs in its previous three games. Then they’ve got the Broncos; Bowers caught 1 pass in his earlier game against that defense. Then it’s at Philadelphia, which seems to be peaking into elite form on defense right now. And then at Houston, which has allowed the fewest yards and points in the league. With the Raiders being a mess anyway, I don’t want anything to do with Bowers or Ashton Jeanty. If you want to focus instead not on big-picture stats but how teams have played against the tight end position, you can the difficulty of Bowers’ upcoming slate below. To me, it looks like all but one of one Bowers’ remaining games might be against teams that are top-10 groups against tight ends. (I’m not worried about the Giants, but I fear all of the other teams.)
| DEFENSES AGAINST TIGHT ENDS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | G | Tgt | No | Yards | TD | PPR |
| Buffalo | 10 | 38 | 25 | 270 | 1 | 5.8 |
| • Philadelphia | 10 | 63 | 37 | 292 | 1 | 7.2 |
| Atlanta | 10 | 48 | 32 | 379 | 1 | 7.6 |
| Las Vegas | 10 | 55 | 38 | 395 | 3 | 9.6 |
| • LA Chargers | 11 | 59 | 41 | 415 | 4 | 9.7 |
| • Houston | 10 | 59 | 42 | 400 | 3 | 10.0 |
| • Kansas City | 10 | 53 | 44 | 482 | 2 | 10.4 |
| Tampa Bay | 10 | 66 | 48 | 413 | 4 | 11.3 |
| • Cleveland | 10 | 63 | 42 | 423 | 5 | 11.4 |
| Baltimore | 10 | 63 | 52 | 530 | 2 | 11.7 |
| Tennessee | 10 | 69 | 53 | 478 | 3 | 11.9 |
| • NY Giants | 11 | 82 | 57 | 493 | 5 | 12.4 |
| Detroit | 10 | 70 | 47 | 484 | 5 | 12.5 |
| • Denver | 11 | 87 | 53 | 636 | 4 | 12.8 |
| Washington | 11 | 70 | 53 | 627 | 6 | 13.8 |
| NY Jets | 10 | 72 | 51 | 451 | 7 | 13.8 |
| New Orleans | 10 | 72 | 55 | 541 | 5 | 13.9 |
| LA Rams | 10 | 82 | 60 | 501 | 5 | 14.0 |
| Green Bay | 10 | 84 | 63 | 489 | 5 | 14.2 |
| Dallas | 10 | 87 | 65 | 605 | 3 | 14.4 |
| Carolina | 11 | 75 | 58 | 718 | 5 | 14.5 |
| Chicago | 10 | 77 | 64 | 582 | 4 | 14.6 |
| New England | 11 | 92 | 69 | 707 | 4 | 14.9 |
| Arizona | 10 | 83 | 60 | 617 | 5 | 15.2 |
| San Francisco | 11 | 94 | 66 | 631 | 7 | 15.6 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 82 | 61 | 594 | 6 | 15.6 |
| Indianapolis | 10 | 87 | 63 | 726 | 5 | 16.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 10 | 86 | 63 | 671 | 6 | 16.6 |
| Seattle | 10 | 88 | 67 | 693 | 5 | 16.6 |
| Miami | 11 | 87 | 68 | 760 | 7 | 16.9 |
| Jacksonville | 10 | 90 | 64 | 694 | 7 | 17.5 |
| Cincinnati | 10 | 97 | 66 | 808 | 12 | 21.9 |
Question 2
Here's a trivia question for you. What's the one team Patrick Mahomes has never beaten?
Matt Morse (Glennallen, AK)
That’s a good question. My first instinct would be that it would a trick question, with Kansas City being the answer. If that’s not the case, I would start picking through the NFC teams, looking for one he’d played against only a time or two.
Question 3
We had a recent controversy in our league over a prearranged trade and trade back resulting in a one-week loan of a player. I guess I was surprised that anyone would consider the tactic but since it had never come up before, there wasn't an explicit rule against it. Do you have an opinion on this or thoughts on how it impacts play?
John Legg (Kansas City, MO)
I remember hearing about a league 35 years ago where there were essentially no rules. That was part of their plan. When a team had a losing record, falling out of the playoff race, it was expected that they would then try to sell their assets to the highest bidder. And it was accepted that if one team had an unstoppable juggernaut, the 2nd- and 3rd-best teams might join forces, trying to construct an even stronger roster. That’s the way they played. And in their league, the rent-a-player would be just fine. But in the vast majority of leagues, this is a non-starter. Would be ethically equivalent to a trade offer of “I will give you Bucky Irving in exchange for George Kittle, but you’ve also got to let me use Sam Darnold in Week 12, then I’ll give him back to you.”
Question 4
Hi Ian. I'm in 2nd place in my league and looking ahead to the playoffs in weeks 15-17. What defenses have favorable matchups in those weeks?
Brian Boyd (Maple Grove, MN)
If we average what defenses have done so far against what has been allowed by offenses, giving equal weight to both, the Texans, Steelers and Bears project to be the top 3. The Saints are also up there, which I’ll admit sounds preposterous, but their three games are against the Panthers, Jets and Titans. In the chart, you’re seeing the expected totals for Weeks 15-17 for sacks, fumbles and interceptions. Defenses are in order using 2 for takeaways and 1 for sacks. The final three columns show the ranks for the Week 15-17 games (with “1” being the most promising and “32” being the worst).
| DEFENSES IN WEEKS 15-17 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Sack | Fum | Int | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| Houston | 8.7 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh | 8.4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1 | 10 | 2 |
| Chicago | 6.3 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 3 | 17 | 7 |
| New Orleans | 8.2 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 13 | 7 | 4 |
| Indianapolis | 7.0 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 6 | 12 | 9 |
| Tampa Bay | 6.9 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 18 | 4 | 5 |
| LA Rams | 6.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 12 | 3 | 15 |
| Atlanta | 8.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 14 | 1 | 22 |
| Detroit | 8.0 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 25 | 18 | 1 |
| Seattle | 7.8 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 8 | 22 | 6 |
| Dallas | 8.2 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 5 | 14 | 21 |
| Buffalo | 8.3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 7 | 9 | 23 |
| Jacksonville | 5.7 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 4 | 23 | 14 |
| Cleveland | 7.6 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 19 | 8 | 12 |
| New England | 7.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 22 | 13 | 8 |
| Denver | 9.8 | .7 | 1.7 | 16 | 6 | 16 |
| Kansas City | 7.6 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 11 | 5 | 30 |
| Philadelphia | 6.9 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 9 | 20 | 24 |
| NY Giants | 7.6 | .9 | 2.2 | 27 | 11 | 17 |
| Tennessee | 6.9 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 17 | 26 | 11 |
| Arizona | 6.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 20 | 27 | 10 |
| Cincinnati | 6.3 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 21 | 25 | 19 |
| LA Chargers | 7.0 | .7 | 2.3 | 28 | 21 | 20 |
| Minnesota | 7.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 26 | 16 | 26 |
| Las Vegas | 6.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 30 | 24 | 18 |
| Miami | 6.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 29 | 15 | 27 |
| Baltimore | 5.8 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 15 | 19 | 31 |
| Carolina | 4.8 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 23 | 30 | 25 |
| Green Bay | 6.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 31 | 31 | 13 |
| San Francisco | 5.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 10 | 28 | 32 |
| Washington | 7.0 | .8 | 1.4 | 24 | 32 | 29 |
| NY Jets | 6.8 | .9 | 1.0 | 32 | 29 | 28 |
Question 5
When is a good trade deadline for Dynasty leagues and for redraft leagues? Love to hear your thoughts.
Eric Scolnick (Redmond, WA)
Following the lead of the mother league makes some sense, I think – whatever the deadline is for the NFL, that’s the deadline for our league, as well. But I would guess there are readers with more carefully thought out opinions on this.
Question 6
Who is the best pick to come back from injury to help in fantasy playoffs: Travis Hunter, Mike Evans, someone else?
MICHAEL HAMER (Springfield, PA)
It’s Hamer time. Joe Burrow likely will be back in the starting lineup next week. He could be a top-5 quarterback the rest of the way. And Trey Benson could be showing up, maybe putting up top-15 running back numbers for the final stretch. Jayden Reed is practicing; I think he’ll return in Week 13, perhaps putting up numbers comparable to their other leading receivers. With Evans, I think Week 15 is the earliest he might be back. Houston GM Nick Caserio commented on Joe Mixon today. He said that a return is possible but that there’s no timeline. (I don’t think there’s any chance of Mixon both returning and playing in a role remotely similar to what he was doing last year.) Brandon Aiyuk hasn’t practiced; I don’t think we’re seeing him. And Travis Hunter is out for the year.
Question 7
Do you think Bucky Irving will be back this week? Or Jalen Warren? I have Warren as my RB2 and my reserves are Sean Tucker and Tajae Spears. Im hoping to be able to use Tucker if Warren can't play in a juicy matchup. Sadly bc im in first I couldn't get Gainwell or Wilson.
Edward Shin (Tustin, CA)
I think both Bucky and Warren will make it back this week, but I haven't seen the Wednesday practice reports yet.
Question 8
Is it time to stop targeting the Cowboy's defense after their performance against the Raiders? They looked a lot better with the new/returning players. I want to use DeVonta Smith against them this week, but I have T. Higgins and Tet Mac as other possibilities.
Robert Cummings (Los Angeles, CA)
Teams change. The Ravens were a dumpster fire defensively earlier in the season; they’re above-average now. The 49ers don’t have Nick Bosa or Fred Warner anymore – they’ve slipped. The Eagles seem to be rounding into form, looking like they’ll be one of the top couple defenses for the duration. This is the game we play. This is why it makes sense to adjust all the numbers every week – you don’t want be selecting players for Week 12 based on what you thought offenses and defenses were back in September. Dallas is definitely improved defensively. They’re not down there with the Bengals anymore. But I’m not ready to call them average. Prior to Las Vegas, they weren’t good in their previous game, losing decisively at home in a Monday nighter against Arizona.
Question 9
From one owner I offered Brian Thomas & Woody Marks for McConkey. From a different owner I was offered Michael Wilson & Kimani Vidal for Travis Etienne. I wouldn't do just one but thinking if I were to accept both, does my roster benefit? My lineup currently consists of:
Graham Ginn (Ocean View, NJ)
I could see doing the Marks-McConkey deal. I like Marks; I think he’s going to play well in that Thursday night game against Buffalo’s struggling run defense. And it would allow you to get out of the hassles of the Chargers’ offense, with both tackles injured and four viable pass catchers competing for balls.
Question 10
I think you'll find this an interesting question. In our league QBs do not get points until they have at least 200 yards and then only a point and one for every additional 25 yards thereafter. TD passes are four points but but an interception is negative one point. Because a QB could end up with a negative score, we do not have to start a QB. Because of byes and injuries (and it's a 20 team league) I have Davis Mills as my QB. Would you start him or nobody?
David Hogshire (Plymouth, MN)
I will start Davis Mills. He's been pretty good the last two weeks, with 292 yards and 2 TDs against Jacksonville, and 274 yards and a touchdown against Tennessee. Just one interception. How much better would have C.J. Stroud been in those games? So I will give Mills the nod against Buffalo, expecting to pick up a point or two for yards, along with 4 for a touchdown and probably losing one for a pick. About 5-6 points, I think.