SEATTLE (vs. Min.): Seattle will win this game, but probably with numbers a little off their usual. Minnesota is struggling through a disappointing season, but the bulk of

**This snippet was first published on November 26.

Defensively, they’re top 10 in yards, and right in the middle of the pack in scoring defense (despite the team ranking last in turnovers). Seattle has averaged 31 points in its last 10 games, but Minnesota is allowing 23 points per week, making something in the mid-to-high 20s look more likely.

Kenneth Walker looks very good. He’s been playing well, leading Mike Macdonald to announce that Walker would be getting more carries going forward. Walker then was on the field for a season-high 63 percent of the plays at Tennessee, carrying 11 times for 71 yards. He’s caught 3 passes in back-to-back games, after catching just 1-2 in each of his previous eight games. Walker will be a free agent in the offseason, so now would be a good time for him to put his foot on the gas, showing the league that he’s a big-time back. This looks like a good spot for him to shine. Minnesota ranked 2nd in run defense a year ago, but they’ve got a bottom-10 run defense now. They’ve allowed 140-plus rushing yards in four of their past five games, with Kimani Vidal and Emanuel Wilson both going over 100 yards against them. Looks like a good week for things to click into play for Walker – maybe hit a long one. The sizable flaw, of course, is that Seattle prefers using Zach Charbonnet, who’s more physical, in goal-line situations. These backs have played 10 games together, and Charbonnet holds a 7-2 edge in touchdowns in those games. Charbonnet is their version of Tyler Allgeier – he’s a good scorer, but he’s averaging only 39 rushing yards, and with less than a catch per game.

Sam Darnold knows these defensive players well. He worked against them in practice all of last year. Whether that’s more of an advantage for Darnold or defensive coordinator Brian Flores can be debated. But Minnesota’s defense thus far has been dramatically better against the pass – 6th in pass defense but just 24th against the run. Perhaps more notably, the Vikings have a popgun offense, reducing the urgency of opponents to take too many risks. The Packers passed for only 139 yards against Minnesota last week in large part because they knew the Vikings couldn’t move the ball. Jordan Love attempted a season-low 21 passes. The Seahawks have been one of those kind of teams. When they blew out the Saints and Cardinals, Darnold attempted only 18 and 12 passes. He averaged 39 attempts in the losses against the Rams and Bucs. This one is far more likely to be a blowout rather than a high-scoring shootout. For the season, Darnold is averaging 253 passing yards, with 19 TDs in 11 games. He’ll likely come in lower here. And he’s not looking to run at all – his rushing numbers are similar to Tua Tagovailoa’s.

If our pass-run theories are correct, it’s not a great matchup for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Seahawks should be running more and passing less. At the same time, he’s on pace right now to break the league record for receiving yards, becoming the first 2,000-yard receiver. That would be really cool, and you would figure the team and the players are interested in going after them. With six games left, they look attainable, so there could be some extra effort made to get the ball in his hands, particularly in the second halves of games that are in hand. Regardless, nobody is sitting down a receiver who’s averaging 7.3 catches for 119 yards. He hasn’t been as dominant as a scorer, but after a pair at Tennessee, he’s caught 7 of the team’s 19 touchdown passes.

Tory Horton is on IR – required to miss the next three games. With him having caught 5 TDs, this makes the team’s other wide receivers look more palatable. It now looks more likely that either Cooper Kupp or Rashid Shaheed might put up viable numbers in some upcoming games. But neither has done much yet. Kupp is averaging only 3.1 catches for 41 yards, with one touchdown in 10 games. Shaheed in his first three games with the Seahawks has only 3 more yards receiving than rushing. (He’s caught 3 passes for 30 yards, with an additional 27 yards on 5 carries.) Shaheed was open for a touchdown against the Rams, but the throw showed up a beat late.

Over half of AJ Barner’s 33 catches have come in two games – just 16 catches and 2 TDs in his other nine games. But Minnesota’s defense ranks higher against wide receivers. Against tight ends, it’s slightly worse than average in catches and yards, and with only six teams allowing more touchdowns (6 TDs versus tight ends, and 8 against wide receivers). And some chance Barner comes in as a Tush Push quarterback to score a 1-yard touchdown. He’s run the ball 8 times this year, with a touchdown at Washington.

Elijah Arroyo is more athletic than Barner, but without as much experience. They’ll use him some, and there will be weeks that he’s more productive. Setting aside those two monster games by Barner, Arroyo in the other nine games has caught only 2 fewer passes, and with only one less touchdown.

On paper, Jason Myers looks like the most promising kicker for Week 13, and it’s not even close. He’s attempted the most field goals in the league, while Minnesota’s defense has allowed the most field goal attempts. Myers has scored at least 12 points in three straight games.

The Seahawks Defense faces Max Brosmer, and that oddly might be a bad thing for their fantasy prospects. J.J. McCarthy has been reliably serving up sacks and turnovers, with 20 sacks and 10 interceptions in his six games. Brosmer may be an undrafted rookie, but he played a lot at the college level, with more opportunities than McCarthy to work while under duress. In four starts against ranked teams last year at the University of Minnesota, he took only 9 sacks, with 2 interceptions. But those with access to the Seattle defense will want to queue them up. Only three teams have more sacks this year. Minnesota’s offense, meanwhile, has been a disaster, with a league-high 21 turnovers and only three teams allowing more sacks.

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