I’m not a big San Darnold fan. I admire the way he’s been able to salvage his career, building himself into a starter-caliber quarterback, but I don’t think he’s every going to work his way up into a top-10 kind of guy.
Too many key errors at key times, I think. He’s leading the league in turnovers. When the high-pressure games show up (starting tomorrow), I think it will be Darnold that holds the Seahawks back.
He’ll be helped along tomorrow by facing a lesser defense. San Francisco ranks last in sacks. So maybe they can pull this one out. But I don’t think Darnold can win three playoff games.
I’d say that with more conviction if I felt stronger about any of the teams in the playoffs this year – there’s no elite-type team that looks very likely to win it. But I’d very nervous putting Darnold up against the Rams or Eagles.
In tomorrow’s game, the 49ers have the sizable edge at quarterback, where Brock Purdy is a craftier decision maker who’s on top of his game, while the Seahawks are hoping Darnold doesn’t implode.
Consider the following numbers. In the first half of the season, the Seahawks ranked 4th in passer rating. (And I’m using teams rather than individuals here to create more of an apples-to-apples comparison, with each team playing the same number of games.) Darnold in his first eight games had a passer rating of 113 – 70 percent, with 16 TDs versus 6 interceptions.
| PASSER RATING, FIRST EIGHT GAMES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pct | Yds/G | TD | Int | Rate |
| New England | 75.0 | 275.9 | 15 | 3 | 118.3 |
| Detroit | 73.9 | 289.8 | 18 | 3 | 116.5 |
| Philadelphia | 70.2 | 197.5 | 15 | 1 | 114.4 |
| Seattle | 70.0 | 220.8 | 16 | 6 | 113.0 |
| LA Rams | 66.9 | 287.6 | 21 | 2 | 112.8 |
| Green Bay | 70.8 | 217.5 | 13 | 3 | 107.9 |
| Indianapolis | 70.2 | 216.0 | 13 | 3 | 107.8 |
| Baltimore | 70.7 | 176.3 | 15 | 5 | 107.7 |
| Buffalo | 69.9 | 229.4 | 13 | 4 | 106.3 |
| Pittsburgh | 69.0 | 204.3 | 17 | 5 | 103.2 |
| Kansas City | 67.0 | 212.8 | 17 | 4 | 103.1 |
| Dallas | 70.2 | 303.0 | 17 | 6 | 101.4 |
| Tampa Bay | 63.9 | 204.1 | 13 | 2 | 98.1 |
| LA Chargers | 68.0 | 204.1 | 16 | 7 | 97.1 |
| Chicago | 61.6 | 226.8 | 13 | 4 | 94.7 |
| Arizona | 67.0 | 282.6 | 12 | 4 | 94.3 |
| Washington | 62.0 | 191.0 | 12 | 5 | 91.6 |
| Denver | 62.8 | 248.4 | 15 | 5 | 91.0 |
| Houston | 65.2 | 236.1 | 11 | 5 | 90.3 |
| Miami | 68.7 | 196.8 | 15 | 10 | 89.6 |
| NY Jets | 63.7 | 156.5 | 9 | 3 | 88.4 |
| San Francisco | 65.9 | 251.0 | 12 | 9 | 88.2 |
| Atlanta | 61.9 | 211.4 | 8 | 3 | 87.1 |
| Cincinnati | 63.6 | 284.8 | 15 | 8 | 86.1 |
| NY Giants | 59.4 | 212.9 | 11 | 6 | 85.3 |
| Carolina | 62.5 | 182.1 | 12 | 6 | 85.1 |
| Las Vegas | 67.5 | 187.6 | 11 | 11 | 83.9 |
| Minnesota | 63.1 | 154.4 | 11 | 9 | 83.9 |
| New Orleans | 66.2 | 254.4 | 8 | 7 | 81.3 |
| Jacksonville | 59.7 | 239.4 | 9 | 6 | 79.7 |
| Tennessee | 57.7 | 187.8 | 5 | 6 | 71.7 |
| Cleveland | 58.9 | 190.5 | 7 | 8 | 68.8 |
But Darnold in the second half of the season has had a bottom-10 passer rating. He’s completed 64 percent, with 9 TDs and 9 interceptions. The 49ers in their final eight games (with Purdy returning to the lineup) have had a league-best 115 passer rating.
The teams below are ordered by how much their passer rating has changed. San Francisco has improved by 26.9 – No. 1. Seattle, meanwhile, has declined from 113 to 83.7.
Only three teams have declined more than Seattle, and two of those can be attributed to quarterback injuries.
San Francisco has a crappy defense, but I expect it will sneak by Seattle tomorrow, and it will be the Purdy-Darnold difference that tilts the scale.
| PASSER RATING, LAST EIGHT GAMES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pct | Yds/G | TD | Int | Rate | + / - |
| San Francisco | 73.4 | 251.0 | 21 | 6 | 115.1 | 26.9 |
| Jacksonville | 60.9 | 239.4 | 17 | 6 | 99.7 | 20.0 |
| Tennessee | 61.6 | 187.8 | 10 | 1 | 88.3 | 16.6 |
| New Orleans | 68.4 | 254.4 | 10 | 4 | 97.2 | 15.9 |
| Cincinnati | 63.8 | 284.8 | 18 | 8 | 93.9 | 7.8 |
| Carolina | 64.8 | 182.1 | 10 | 5 | 89.5 | 4.4 |
| Cleveland | 57.3 | 190.5 | 9 | 10 | 72.0 | 3.2 |
| NY Giants | 62.8 | 212.9 | 8 | 4 | 88.3 | 3.0 |
| Atlanta | 60.5 | 211.4 | 10 | 4 | 88.3 | 1.2 |
| Houston | 60.9 | 236.1 | 12 | 4 | 90.1 | -.2 |
| Las Vegas | 67.1 | 187.6 | 9 | 7 | 83.7 | -.2 |
| Dallas | 64.8 | 303.0 | 14 | 5 | 98.2 | -3.2 |
| Miami | 65.9 | 196.8 | 7 | 7 | 86.1 | -3.5 |
| Arizona | 64.2 | 282.6 | 15 | 6 | 90.3 | -4.0 |
| Denver | 63.9 | 248.4 | 10 | 6 | 85.2 | -5.8 |
| Chicago | 54.7 | 226.8 | 13 | 2 | 87.4 | -7.3 |
| LA Chargers | 63.6 | 204.1 | 10 | 6 | 89.0 | -8.1 |
| LA Rams | 63.3 | 287.6 | 21 | 6 | 104.6 | -8.2 |
| Buffalo | 68.4 | 229.4 | 12 | 6 | 97.6 | -8.7 |
| Green Bay | 63.6 | 217.5 | 13 | 4 | 98.6 | -9.3 |
| New England | 68.7 | 275.9 | 15 | 5 | 107.4 | -10.9 |
| Washington | 60.1 | 191.0 | 6 | 6 | 79.7 | -11.9 |
| Tampa Bay | 61.0 | 204.1 | 12 | 8 | 80.9 | -17.2 |
| Detroit | 63.2 | 289.8 | 16 | 4 | 99.3 | -17.2 |
| Pittsburgh | 64.0 | 204.3 | 8 | 4 | 85.6 | -17.6 |
| Minnesota | 58.9 | 154.4 | 7 | 12 | 63.0 | -20.9 |
| NY Jets | 57.9 | 156.5 | 5 | 10 | 61.9 | -26.5 |
| Baltimore | 61.2 | 176.3 | 5 | 5 | 81.0 | -26.7 |
| Seattle | 64.3 | 220.8 | 9 | 9 | 83.7 | -29.3 |
| Philadelphia | 60.3 | 197.5 | 10 | 5 | 84.7 | -29.7 |
| Indianapolis | 62.1 | 216.0 | 10 | 10 | 78.0 | -29.8 |
| Kansas City | 57.6 | 212.8 | 6 | 8 | 71.3 | -31.8 |
—Ian Allan