Heading into the season, I was aware the Patriots probably would be helped along by an easy schedule. But I think it might have been an even bigger factor in their success that I thought. Historically large, in fact.
I keep the strength of schedule data each year. (I’m a stat hoarder; I can’t help it.) And strictly by the numbers, the Patriots just played the easiest schedule in over 20 years.
New England’s opponents went a combined 113-176-0. If we removed their 3-14 record against the Patriots (making for more of an apples-to-apples comparison), they went 110-162-0, for a winning percentage of .407. There have been 782 teams since 2002, and that’s the lowest winning percentage of all of them.
I’m not suggesting that Patriots are simply frauds, but I believe they’re something less than is indicated by their 14-3 record. Similarly, I think the Broncos have also been puffed up by an easier schedule (they show up at 16th on the list below).
Strength of schedule matters. Since 2002, 33 teams have played schedules against opponents that collectively won fewer than 45 percent of their games. All 33 of those teams won at least seven games, and all but six of them finished with winning records (tagged with dots). Three of the 33 teams, by the ended up in the Super Bowl -- the 2009 Saints won, while the 2005 Seahawks and 2006 Bears lost.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (since 2002) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Win | Loss | Tie | Pct | (Record) |
| 2025 | New England | 110 | 162 | 0 | .407 | 14-3-0 |
| 2024 | Miami | 112 | 160 | 0 | .412 | 8-9-0 |
| 2010 | Kansas City | 100 | 140 | 0 | .417 | 10-6-0 |
| 2007 | Seattle | 100 | 140 | 0 | .417 | 10-6-0 |
| 2023 | • Atlanta | 114 | 158 | 0 | .419 | 7-10-0 |
| 2022 | San Francisco | 116 | 155 | 1 | .428 | 13-4-0 |
| 2007 | • Arizona | 103 | 137 | 0 | .429 | 8-8-0 |
| 2023 | New Orleans | 117 | 155 | 0 | .430 | 9-8-0 |
| 2003 | Kansas City | 104 | 136 | 0 | .433 | 13-3-0 |
| 2007 | Cleveland | 104 | 136 | 0 | .433 | 10-6-0 |
| 2017 | Tennessee | 104 | 136 | 0 | .433 | 9-7-0 |
| 2025 | • Dallas | 117 | 155 | 0 | .433 | 7-9-1 |
| 2012 | Atlanta | 105 | 135 | 0 | .438 | 13-3-0 |
| 2017 | Jacksonville | 105 | 135 | 0 | .438 | 10-6-0 |
| 2008 | • San Francisco | 105 | 134 | 1 | .440 | 7-9-0 |
| 2025 | Denver | 118 | 152 | 2 | .441 | 14-3-0 |
| 2009 | New Orleans (SB) | 106 | 134 | 0 | .442 | 13-3-0 |
| 2018 | Chicago | 104 | 132 | 4 | .442 | 12-4-0 |
| 2004 | Atlanta | 106 | 134 | 0 | .442 | 11-5-0 |
| 2012 | Cincinnati | 106 | 134 | 0 | .442 | 10-6-0 |
| 2017 | Baltimore | 106 | 134 | 0 | .442 | 9-7-0 |
| 2010 | • St. Louis | 106 | 134 | 0 | .442 | 7-9-0 |
| 2020 | Green Bay | 106 | 133 | 1 | .444 | 13-3-0 |
| 2024 | Washington | 121 | 151 | 0 | .445 | 12-5-0 |
| 2022 | LA Chargers | 120 | 150 | 2 | .445 | 10-7-0 |
| 2006 | Chicago (SB) | 107 | 133 | 0 | .446 | 13-3-0 |
| 2005 | Seattle (SB) | 107 | 133 | 0 | .446 | 13-3-0 |
| 2003 | St. Louis | 107 | 133 | 0 | .446 | 12-4-0 |
| 2015 | NY Jets | 107 | 133 | 0 | .446 | 10-6-0 |
| 2004 | Seattle | 107 | 133 | 0 | .446 | 9-7-0 |
| 2008 | • Buffalo | 107 | 133 | 0 | .446 | 7-9-0 |
| 2016 | Seattle | 107 | 132 | 1 | .448 | 10-5-1 |
| 2014 | Houston | 107 | 132 | 1 | .448 | 9-7-0 |
In the playoff field, if you’re looking for a team that’s more battle tested – a team that’s played a hard schedule – then perhaps instead the Rams or Texans. LA’s games were against teams that went 147-125-0.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| • New England | 110 | 162 | 0 | .407 |
| Dallas | 117 | 155 | 0 | .433 |
| • Denver | 118 | 152 | 2 | .441 |
| • Chicago | 125 | 144 | 3 | .469 |
| Cleveland | 128 | 143 | 1 | .476 |
| • LA Chargers | 129 | 142 | 1 | .480 |
| Miami | 131 | 141 | 0 | .485 |
| • Buffalo | 131 | 141 | 0 | .485 |
| • Philadelphia | 130 | 139 | 3 | .487 |
| New Orleans | 132 | 140 | 0 | .489 |
| • Green Bay | 132 | 140 | 0 | .489 |
| Detroit | 132 | 137 | 3 | .494 |
| Atlanta | 134 | 138 | 0 | .496 |
| • Jacksonville | 134 | 138 | 0 | .496 |
| Washington | 133 | 136 | 3 | .498 |
| Kansas City | 137 | 134 | 1 | .509 |
| Baltimore | 137 | 134 | 1 | .509 |
| • Pittsburgh | 138 | 133 | 1 | .513 |
| NY Giants | 137 | 132 | 3 | .513 |
| • San Francisco | 139 | 133 | 0 | .515 |
| Cincinnati | 139 | 132 | 1 | .517 |
| Minnesota | 139 | 130 | 3 | .520 |
| • Seattle | 141 | 131 | 0 | .522 |
| Las Vegas | 141 | 130 | 1 | .524 |
| • Carolina | 141 | 129 | 2 | .526 |
| Tampa Bay | 144 | 128 | 0 | .533 |
| NY Jets | 145 | 126 | 1 | .539 |
| • Houston | 146 | 126 | 0 | .541 |
| • LA Rams | 147 | 125 | 0 | .544 |
| Indianapolis | 147 | 125 | 0 | .544 |
| Arizona | 150 | 120 | 2 | .559 |
| Tennessee | 152 | 120 | 0 | .563 |
Some prefer to look not at win-loss records by at points scored. By that measure, New England still comes in with the most favorable schedule of the playoff teams (No. 2, trailing only the Browns).
The two Los Angeles teams tended to face the toughest defenses of the 14 playoff games (while Tennessee and Indianapolis were the only two teams whose opponent allowed an average of under 22 points per week).
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS | |
|---|---|
| Team | Avg |
| Cleveland | 24.3 |
| • New England | 24.2 |
| Miami | 24.1 |
| Minnesota | 24.0 |
| New Orleans | 23.9 |
| • Green Bay | 23.9 |
| • Philadelphia | 23.8 |
| • Denver | 23.6 |
| • Pittsburgh | 23.6 |
| • Carolina | 23.5 |
| NY Jets | 23.2 |
| Atlanta | 23.1 |
| Dallas | 23.0 |
| Las Vegas | 23.0 |
| • Chicago | 23.0 |
| Washington | 23.0 |
| Kansas City | 22.9 |
| NY Giants | 22.8 |
| Detroit | 22.8 |
| • Buffalo | 22.8 |
| Baltimore | 22.8 |
| Cincinnati | 22.7 |
| • Seattle | 22.7 |
| • Jacksonville | 22.7 |
| • San Francisco | 22.5 |
| • Houston | 22.5 |
| Arizona | 22.5 |
| Tampa Bay | 22.4 |
| • LA Rams | 22.1 |
| • LA Chargers | 22.0 |
| Indianapolis | 21.6 |
| Tennessee | 21.3 |
—Ian Allan

